075
FXUS64 KTSA 231855
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
155 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Thru Tonight)
Issued at 153 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

As mentioned in yesterday`s discussion, a weak boundary dropping
down into the region has caused moisture to pool both at the
surface and aloft along and ahead of the boundary, pushing
dewpoints upward, with no cooling effect. Not good. The NAM is
handling the pooling moisture fairly well, so the Td forecast
thru tomorrow will be leaned toward this model. Heat advisory
conditions are already being observed across a good portion of NE
OK and into west-central AR in the lower Ark River valley. While
lows are expected to cool off into the lower 70s over in the
Ozarks, there is not much relief from the heat expected tonight
across E OK, where lows in the mid to upper 70s will be common. An
isolated shower or storm is possible across west-central AR, but
I wouldn`t count on it.

Lacy

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 153 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

The heat intensifies on Monday, with afternoon heat indices
expected to climb into the 105 to 111 degree range. The lower Ark
River valley of west-central Arkansas, including FSM, could see
heat warning criteria. Therefore, have issued an Excessive Heat
Watch there, and Heat Advisories elsewhere. After what looks like
another day of heat headlines Tuesday, the mid-level ridge will
shift far enough west, at least briefly, to allow for increased
storm chances Tuesday night into Wednesday. If an MCS were to
organize and plow south across the area, it would provide some
relief from the heat, with the caveat that it could bring some
spotty damaging wind also. After storm chances on Wednesday with a
weak front, the ridge aloft will rebuild east back overhead for
the latter part of the week. Storm chances will return by the
weekend as another boundary approaches from the north in a less
amplified upper flow pattern across the CONUS.

Lacy

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period. A few
isolated showers may develop later this afternoon, highest
potential near FSM, but chances are too low to include in the TAFs
at this time. Otherwise, a mix of mid and high clouds will
prevail areawide with light sfc winds (<10 kts).

Mejia

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   98  79 101  81 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   98  78 100  78 /  10  10  10   0
MLC   97  76  97  77 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   97  72 101  75 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   95  70  98  72 /   0  10   0   0
BYV   95  72  99  74 /   0   0  10   0
MKO   97  77  98  77 /   0  10   0   0
MIO   95  74  99  76 /   0   0   0   0
F10   98  76  97  76 /   0  10   0   0
HHW   95  76  96  76 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Monday for OKZ049-053>076.

     Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ054>057-059>062-
     064>067-070>076.

AR...Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Monday for ARZ001-002-010-
     011.

     Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ019-020-029.

     Excessive Heat Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday
     evening for ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...67