550
FXUS64 KTSA 181132
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
632 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Showers and thunderstorms in northwest Oklahoma early this morning
are expected to dissipate before reaching our area today.
Temperatures should be warmer today due to less cloudiness, with
afternoon highs generally ranging from the upper 80s to mid 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

The warming trend will continue Thursday and Friday as an upper
ridge builds overhead, with unseasonably hot afternoon high
temperatures and unseasonably warm overnight lows. Afternoon heat
index values will reach near 105 in some places both Thursday and
Friday afternoon, so it is possible that heat headlines may be
required.

A few "sunrise surprise" showers and thunderstorms may develop
late tonight and Thursday morning across parts of northeast
Oklahoma, and the CAMs suggest the potential for robust
convection to develop across northeast Oklahoma late Thursday
afternoon, with these storms possibly propagating south as far as
southeast Oklahoma Thursday evening before dissipating. As such,
have added pops for both of these time frames despite the dry NBM.

Low shower and storm chances will remain possible in the northern
part of the forecast area this weekend, and temperatures will
lower slightly as the upper ridge over the area begins to break
down. Better shower and storm chances look to occur Sunday night
as a cold front sweeps across the area. There remains considerable
model spread in the magnitude of the cooling behind this front
for early next week, with some models...UKMET and ICON in
particular...indicating a far more significant cooldown than what
is shown in the current forecast. We will just have to wait and
see how this all plays out.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 632 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Current indications remain for the ongoing showers/convection in
North Central Oklahoma to remain west/northwest of the Northeast
Oklahoma TAF sites this morning. However...an outflow boundary
could potential reach KBVO/KTUL/KRVS mid morning.
Otherwise...few to scattered mid and high clouds are forecast
across the CWA during the day. Sky conditions should become mostly
clear to scattered high clouds this evening into the overnight
hours. Late tonight...additional high clouds are forecast to move
into Northeast Oklahoma with a slight chance of precipitation. For
now will keep TAF sites dry due to limited coverage/impact to any
one terminal. Winds between east and southerly are expected
through the period. VFR conditions are forecast for the majority
of the TAF period.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   91  72  97  75 /  10  10  30  30
FSM   89  68  93  72 /  10  10  10  20
MLC   92  71  96  73 /  10  10  10  20
BVO   94  68  98  70 /  10  20  30  30
FYV   87  63  91  69 /  10  10  10  20
BYV   88  65  92  70 /  10  10  10  20
MKO   90  69  95  73 /  10  10  20  30
MIO   89  68  93  71 /  10  10  30  30
F10   91  70  96  73 /  10  10  20  30
HHW   91  68  95  71 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...20