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369
FXUS61 KCAR 231123
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
723 AM EDT Thu May 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An occluded front will cross the area this morning. Low pressure
will track through Quebec tonight and pull a cold front across the
region on Friday. High pressure will build over the area Saturday
followed by a weak disturbance on Sunday. Low pressure will approach
from the Great Lakes early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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725 am update...
Updated sky cover and pop/wx forecast for tda. Initial storms
ahead of s/wv have moved into nwrn zones and will eventually
move into the Central Highlands over the next hour or two. Lead
boundary located near the Hudson Valley of NY and continues to
march east this morning and looks to set up over central areas
sometime btwn 18z-20z this afternoon. Storm development looks to
be dependent on how much sun we can get along with timing of
shortwave. Guidance ranges from development as early as 18z to
as late as 22z. Have removed any enhanced wording before 18z
with wide goalposts on locations.

Prev discussion blo...
Showers and thunderstorms have lifted along the international
border ahead of shortwave early this morning. Expect isolated
storms move into western zones shortly after sunrise this
morning and head east from there. Occluded front looks to be
located through central NY and heading east this morning.
Current movement puts it thru central CWA around 18z this
afternoon.

Low-mid clouds developing in warm advection this morning over
portions of the area and expect this to continue with morning
starting out partly sunny before clouding up. Given this
scenario best chance for scattered storms looks to develop along
and south of front after 16z from about a Mars Hill to Dover-
Foxcroft line with best surface heating occurring. Showers and
isolated storms expected to the north of the boundary as well as
in marine layer right along the coast. MUCAPE ranges from
1000-2000 JKG-1 along the boundary with shear on the order of
30-40kts. Have continued with idea of gusty winds and small hail
with any storm that develops, though cannot rule out an isolated
severe cell.

Temps tda will be a degree or two cooler than yda with coastal
Washington and the outer islands seeing temps remaining around
60 given similar flow off of the ocean. By 00z tonight front
pushes offshore with skies clearing rapidly in it/s wake.
Clearing will be short-lived as secondary front moves in rapidly
and mid-high clouds begin to encroach across the northwest
toward sunrise.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Warm air will be over the area Friday morning. Low pressure over
Quebec will pull a strong cold front toward the area from the
northwest Friday morning which will reach the northwest by late
morning and continue across the area reaching Downeast by late
afternoon. Some showers and isolated thunderstorms will be scattered
across the north Friday as the front moves through. Temperatures
aloft may be cold enough for any isolated thunderstorms to produce
small hail over the far north. Southern areas are expected to remain
dry through the frontal passage.

Moderately cooler and drier air will follow the frontal passage
Friday afternoon into Friday night with lows Friday night from the
mid 40s north to the low 50s Downeast. A corridor or dry air will
build across the area on Saturday bringing sunshine, a few cumulus
clouds over the north, and highs from the upper 60s over the far
north to the mid 70s over interior Downeast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A weak upper level shortwave will approach Saturday night and and
cross the area around midnight. A few spotty showers may be around
with this shortwave. Otherwise, for most places, it will likely
bring only some patchy clouds. Following this disturbance, Sunday
will be partly to mostly cloudy with highs in the low to mid 70s
across the region.

Looking ahead to the beginning of next week, our focus will be on a
large storm system developing over the Great Lakes region supported
by a trough tracking from the northern Plains into the western Great
Lakes. There is some discrepancy between the models as to how
quickly moisture ahead of this system moves in. The GFS has clouds
and some showers moving in late Sunday night while the ECMWF keep a
ridge and high pressure over the area Sunday night. The low then
approaches with a chance for rain on Monday, mainly late. The GFS is
most aggressive with the approach from the rain along a frontal
boundary across our area. The ECMWF, however, is slower with the
approach of the rain as ridging holds on across the area. By late
Monday night, both the GFS and ECMWF carry rain into the area with
the GFS advertising a more stratiform rain and the ECMWF a more
showery rain with an occlusion moving through. Given the size of the
storm and the depth of the upper level wave carrying the system,
rain will be likely at some point early next week even though there
are currently differences in the details of the storm structure and
timing.

Chances for showers will likely persist Tuesday into Wednesday as
the surface low lifts across the area and the upper low spins over
our region. Some showers may continue into Thursday as a trailing
shortwave trough moves through before high pressure builds in with
clearing next Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: VFR across most terminals today. Showers and
thunderstorms expected over all terminals at some point today.
FVE likely to see vcts early this morning, with remaining
terminals expected to see thunder after 16z. FVE may drop to
MVFR this morning with remaining terminals at VFR.

Cannot rule out IFR vsbys/cigs very late in the period over
Downeast terminals but little confidence did not warrant a
mention in TAFs at this point.

SHORT TERM:
Friday...VFR, possibly dropping to MVFR at times over the north. SW
winds becoming NW and gusty.

Friday night...VFR. Gusty W winds.

Saturday...VFR. Light W wind.

Saturday night...VFR, possibly lowering to MVFR at times in southern
sites. Light S wind.

Sunday...VFR. Light SE wind.

Sunday night...VFR, lowering to MVFR. Light E wind.

Monday...MVFR, possibly lowering to IFR late. E wind becoming
SE.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas remain below small craft levels today
and tonight. Patchy fog will reduce visibilities over the outer
waters at times today.

SHORT TERM:
Seas may approach 5 ft Tuesday and build up to 10 ft Tuesday
night in response to low pressure moving through. Otherwise,
wind and seas should be below SCA through Monday. A bit of light
mist or patchy fog may be over the waters as a result of humid
air moving over the cooler waters early next week.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...Buster
Short Term...Bloomer
Long Term...Bloomer
Aviation...Buster/Bloomer
Marine...Buster/Bloomer