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991
FXUS61 KILN 231947
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
347 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Scattered showers and thunderstorms will come to an end early
this evening with the passage of a cold front. A brief respite
in the heat and humidity is expected on Monday, before warmer
and more humid air quickly builds back into the region on
Tuesday, along with chances for storms Tuesday night through
Wednesday. Drier and cooler conditions will then return for the
last part of the workweek.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Progressive mid level trof to continuing tracking east thru the
northern Great Lakes today. This will drive a surface cold
front - that currently stretches from just west of CLE to near
DAY - thru ILN/s area by early evening.

Increased low level moisture has led to SBCAPE values of
2000-2500 J/KG ahead of the approaching cold front. Scattered
convection continues to develop in this moderately unstable
airmass in the pre-frontal environment.

Deep layer shear of 20-25 kts is indicated in the 0-6km layer.
With the low level jet shifting east the the flow veers some
with the profile becoming more unidirectional this afternoon.
DCAPE values are favorable for damaging winds with values
around 1200 J/KG.

The potential for severe weather will be along and southeast of
I-71 thru about 8 PM - with strong to damaging winds being the
main threat.

Wind gusts (outside of storm activity) will be 20-25 mph thru
the afternoon, subsiding after sunset.

Northwest mid level flow develops overnight with surface high
pressure building in overnight. Drier and cooler air will
advect into the Ohio Valley on low level northerly flow. Low
temperatures to drop into the lower and middle 60s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/...
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Northwest flow aloft with surface high pressure over the area
Monday. With a dry airmass in place expect only a few fair
weather cumulus clouds. With abundant sunshine highs top out in
the lower and middle 80s.

The center of surface high pressure to build off to the east
Monday night with a return southerly low level flow developing
on its backside. Expect lows to range from near 60 in the east
to the mid 60s west - where flow picks up and clouds begin to
increase.
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&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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High pressure will be moving east on Tuesday, while a cold front
approaches from the west. Thunderstorms may be confined to
northwestern locations near a disturbance in the mid level flow.
Showers and thunderstorms become likely Tuesday night as the cold
front sags toward Ohio. Carrying pops as high as categorical
Wednesday when the front is forecast to cross Ohio and Kentucky.
Strong storms will be possible from an environment containing ample
wind shear and instability. PWAT over 2 inches will allow heavy
downpours. Dry weather is indicated for Thursday and Friday as high
pressure builds in behind the front. The next cold front brings back
the threat for showers and storms Saturday and Sunday.

High temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s are forecast on
Tuesday ahead of the first cold front. Readings may be a few degrees
cooler on Wednesday due to clouds and precip. A round of cold
advection on Thursday will result in upper 70s to mid 80s. A return
to the 90s is likely by Saturday ahead of the second cold front. A
retreat to the mid and upper 80s is expected for Sunday under the
next cold front.
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&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Surface cold front entering West Central Ohio to push southeast
across the area thru early evening. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms developing in the moderately unstable airmass
ahead of this front. Some of the storms will contain strong to
damaging winds before ending with the frontal passage. MVFR
ceilings will remain possible until the front moves through the
area. IFR vsby and ceiling restrictions will be possible with
some of the stronger storms but have not mentioned conditions
this low due to limited coverage.

Surface high pressure to build into the area overnight into
Monday offering drier VFR conditions.

Southwest winds of 12-15kts, with gusts between 20-25kts
to shift to the northwest at all TAF/s by 22Z. The gusts
to taper off after sunset. Winds become more northerly toward
daybreak on Monday at less than 10 kts.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible late Tuesday through Wednesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...Coniglio
AVIATION...AR