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FXUS63 KSGF 260206 AAA
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Springfield MO
906 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

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- Daily high temperatures in the upper 80s to upper 90s through
  this week, with Heat Index values ranging in the 90s and into
  the 100s, especially Friday into the weekend.

- Scattered thunderstorm chances tonight into Wednesday, with
  highest chances (50 to 80%) after midnight. Slight risk for
  severe weather for the majority of the area with damaging
  winds the main threat.
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&&

.MESOSCALE...
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Issued at 837 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

00z KSGF sounding measured a very moist and unstable airmass
with 4000j/kg of MU CAPE, 0 CIN and PW values of 1.80in. A
cluster of thunderstorms has continued to affect the Rolla/Vichy
area with a general southerly direction. This activity will
continue dropping south and affect areas along and east of the
Highway 63 corridor through 11pm. Overall the severe threat is
low with this activity. A lone storm has continued to move east
along the KS/OK border and may try to move into southeast
Kansas. Slightly higher shear out there could allow for it to
remain severe and will monitor that storm for the next few
hours.

Of greater concern for the overnight hours is the development of
severe storms currently across Nebraska and Iowa. These storms
are developing along a frontal boundary within a higher sheared
environment. Latest 00z HRRR and last few WOFS runs indicate
that these storms will continue to merge/conglomerate and
develop cold pools as they move south, following propagation
vectors. Therefore, expect at least a few clusters of storms or
line segments to move towards the KC metro and then into our
area generally late, after midnight. There also appears to be a
weak low level jet that develops across Kansas and Oklahoma with
some development of storms likely in a north to south corridor
on the edge of this jet. This could occur closer to the
Missouri/Kansas border area ahead of the incoming storms. Given
the high instability and weak inhibition storms just need a
trigger and other isolated storms could develop across the rest
of the CWA before the main batch of storms arrives late.

That main batch of storms look to arrive along the I-44
corridor between 3am-7am and continue to move southeast from
there in the morning. Given the amount of instability and
moisture, damaging winds of 60-70 mph is the most likely hazard.
Frequent lightning will also be a concern. The flooding threat
looks to be limited given the progressive nature of the storms
and the dry conditions lately however any areas that see slower
moving or repeated storms could see localized flooding. Those
outdoors tonight will need to remain weather aware given the
damaging wind potential.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 153 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

We have 3,000-4,500 J/kg of SBCAPE across the area this
afternoon as weak shortwave energy passes through, which will
result in isolated pop-up showers and storms into this evening.
Shear is very weak, so storms will be pulsey and disorganized.
No severe weather is expected with this convection.

Heat is obviously an issue this afternoon with temperatures in
the mid 90s and dew points in the mid to upper 70s as of 2pm,
resulting in heat index values

Additional, potentially severe, convection is then likely
tonight. Storms are expected to develop across western Iowa,
then grow upscale and move southward through the night.
Additional storms may develop ahead of the complex. The main
concern is with the MCS activity, where a damaging wind threat
of 60-70mph is the primary concern. This may linger in the
morning hours on Wednesday, but models vary by a few hours on
timing, placement, and strength, which limits confidence in
specific details.

Highs on Wednesday should be cooler with highs in the mid 80s to
low 90s currently expected, but that will be highly dependent on
convective evolution. Could be cooler or warmer if precip/cloud
stick around longer or dissipate more quickly.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 153 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Thursday will be another "cooler" day with highs in the mid 80s
to low 90s, but heat builds back in on Friday. Friday highs are
forecast to range from the low to upper 90s with max heat index
values from the upper 90s to around 105.

We see a return of area-wide PoPs Saturday into Saturday night
as a cold front may move through. There severe weather potential
is not clear right now, but does not appear to be too great.
Look for highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s Saturday, which may
change if the timing of the front and convection changes. Sunday
should be cooler with highs in the 80s and 20-40% chances for
precip.

The repetitive cycle of jumping right back to heat continues
early next week with highs in the 90s for Monday and Tuesday.
Could see a need for more heat advisories if this verifies.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 627 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

VFR conditions are expected this evening through the overnight
hours with southerly winds. There is a 20 percent chance of
thunderstorms this evening however higher chances still look to
move in after 09z however given the uncertainty have kept prob30
groups in for now. As confidence in timing increases we will
then include tempo groups. Low level wind shear is possible at
SGF and JLN. Winds then turn more northwesterly for Wednesday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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KS...None.
MO...None.
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&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Burchfield
SHORT TERM...Melto
LONG TERM...Melto
AVIATION...Burchfield