Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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495 FXUS62 KILM 200008 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 808 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Seasonably warm and mainly dry conditions will continue for the next few days. A warming trend begins late in the week with afternoon showers and thunderstorms for the weekend. Heat indices may reach the triple digits over the weekend. Onshore flow will bring more humid conditions by the beginning of next week with a better chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... The area will remain between high pressure to the north and low pressure to the south. This pattern will bring deep easterly flow which will keep temps somewhat in check and allow for a few showers, especially near the coast. Lows tonight should be in the mid to upper 60s away from the warmer coastal areas with highs Thursday ranging from the lower to mid 80s near the coast to around 90 inland, both of which are near to slightly below normal. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... High pressure offshore will maintain easterly winds Thursday night into Friday, weakening on Friday. A coastal trough on Friday may bring a few showers to the immediate coastal areas. Dry air aloft and poor lapse rates will limit their ability to maintain organization inland. For now, have kept a chance of showers on Friday afternoon, higher near the coast and farther south. Highs in the lower 90s with overnight lows not offering much relief with lows in the lower 70s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Onshore flow continues on Saturday with low level moisture advection increasing the potential for isolated showers and storms along the coast. Ridging to our west and subsidence overhead will allow temperatures to climb into the mid and upper 90s on Saturday. Heat and humidity continue to increase on Sunday with inland areas possibly reaching 100 degrees. Heat indices could reach the mid 100s by Sunday afternoon. A cold front and upper trough approaches the area early next week. Lifting upper low over southern Canada indicates that trough will be less robust than models currently indicate. Given the dry boundary layer and westerly flow, have capped rain chances around 40% for now. NW flow aloft could provide better lift for afternoon storms, primarily Monday. Drier aloft on Tuesday and Wednesday with isolated showers and storms possible. Above normal temperatures will continue Tuesday and Wednesday. && .AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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VFR through the 00Z TAF period. Easterly flow continues with sfc high pressure locked in place off to the NE. Gusts up to ~20 kt Thursday aftn with a very small chance of a shower along the coast. Extended Outlook... High confidence in VFR prevailing outside of showers/storms and morning low clouds/fog (especially starting Saturday).
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&& .MARINE... Through Thursday... The pressure gradient will remain slightly enhanced as the area remains between high pressure to the north and low pressure to the south. Conditions will be close to Small Craft Advisory levels, especially Thursday out near 20 nm, but confidence in occurrence and coverage wasn`t high enough to raise a headline yet. Thursday Night through Monday Night... Onshore flow and easterly swell will continue Thursday night into Friday. Swell between 3-5 feet at 8-9 seconds will weaken late Friday as high pressure offshore weakens and a trough develops well south of the area. Bermuda high pressure regains control of the region this weekend. Seas 2 to 3 feet for the upcoming weekend with a combination of weakening E swell and S wind chop. Overnight showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible over the coastal waters each night. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Other - Rip Currents: A building easterly swell and upcoming full moon will maintain an elevated rip current risk for east and southeast facing beaches in our area through (at least) the end of the week. A high risk of rip currents is in effect today for Pender, New Hanover and Georgetown County beaches, as well as Myrtle Beach southward in Horry, with high rip risk potentially continuing through Friday. The south facing beaches of Brunswick county (east of Ocean Isle) will likely have strong east to west longshore currents these days due to easterly swell and winds versus strong rip currents. The area in between the two, from north of Myrtle Beach to Ocean Isle Beach, will have a combination of moderate rip current risk and moderate to strong NE to SW longshore current the next couple of days. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106- 108. Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ110. SC...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054- 056. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM NEAR TERM...RJB SHORT TERM...21 LONG TERM...21 AVIATION...MAS MARINE...RJB/21 TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...