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091
FXUS61 KILN 261944
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
344 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Shower and thunderstorm activity will come to an end tonight
with the passage of a cold front. Surface high pressure will
build in and provide drier weather through Friday. Another
system builds back in for the start of the weekend, leading to
additional rounds of showers and storms Saturday.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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Coverage in showers will increase from the NW ahead of an
approaching cold frontal boundary. Most of the convection has
remained north of our CWA thus far. Given the lack of pre-
frontal showers, hydro concerns remain fairly meager across our
counties, even with the efficient rainfall that is expected.
Additionally, the line of showers moving in have had little
instability to work with and thus have not produced much
thunder. For locations along/NW of I-71, this remains much of
the same, leading to only pockets of embedded thunderstorms in
these showers.

While locations SE of I-71 have had some better insolation this
afternoon, SBCAPE values are unlikely to rebound enough to
warrant a larger severe concern. Still monitoring potential for
an isolated strong to severe storm developing, mainly for our
southeastern counties in the Scioto Valley and north-central KY.
This threat will likely end after sunset. Given how progressive
the front will be, rainfall will also be ending early tonight
for our counties, with precip fully out of our CWA by midnight
or shortly thereafter.

Skies will quickly clear out behind the frontal boundary
tonight. This may lead to some patchy fog development, mainly
for our southeastern counties. Will have to monitor trends on
this potential.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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Thursday will offer more seasonable temperatures as surface high
pressure builds in from the NW. The northerly flow will help
usher in relatively drier air as well, with dewpoints ranging in
the upper 50s to lower 60s. Given the weak CAA present, cu
development seems probable during the late morning and afternoon
hours. Still, expecting a fair amount of sunshine throughout the
day, with temperatures ranging in the upper 70s to middle 80s.

Skies clear out once again Thursday night, with favorable
radiative cooling leading to temperatures dropping into the
middle 50s to near 60 across the CWA.
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&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Surface high pressure will be shifting off to the east through the
day on Friday. Developing return flow on the back side of this will
allow for temperatures to warm into the mid to upper 80s through the
afternoon.

Mid level short wave energy will spread east across the southern
Great Lakes/Ohio Valley Friday night and then through the day on
Saturday with an associated cold front dropping southeast across our
region Saturday night. Increasing southwest flow and moisture
advection ahead of this will lead to a developing chance for showers
and thunderstorms, especially Saturday afternoon into Saturday
evening. Temperatures on Saturday will be somewhat dependent on the
timing of this but will generally range highs from the upper 80s in
the northwest to the lower 90s in the southeast. Surface dewpoints
will also be creeping up into the lower to possibly mid 70s through
the day so some heat indices of around 100 degrees or so may be
possible, especially across southeast portions of our area. This
will also lead to the potential for some decent destabilization
through the day so a few strong to severe thunderstorms will be
possible Saturday afternoon and evening. Pcpn chances will taper off
from the northwest later Saturday night as the cold front moves
through.

A cooler air mass will begin to filter into the region behind the
front on Sunday with highs ranging from the upper 70s northwest to
the mid 80s in the southeast. Temperatures on Monday will be several
degrees below normal with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Upper
level ridging will build in from the southwest through mid week,
leading to a return to warmer temperatures with highs Tuesday and
Wednesday back into the mid 80s to lower 90s. Some mid level energy
moving over the ridge will lead to some lower end chances for
thunderstorms toward the end of the long term period.
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&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Isolated rain possible this afternoon, but there will be a
minimum in shower coverage until the late afternoon/early
evening hours. By the early evening, coverage in showers and
perhaps some thunderstorms will increase from the NW. Showers
will develop out ahead of a cold front that will track southeast
through the early overnight hours. Lower CIGs build in with
these showers, with some MVFR possible, but confidence was not
high enough to include this mention. Instead, just have an MVFR
vsby reduction with the rain. Severe storm potential looking
even more limited given the lack of instability, but still have
to monitor for any isolated threat.

Progressive cold front will lead to rapid clearing overnight.
Some BR possible, mainly at KLUK, so included a mention of this.
Cu development expected for Thursday late morning/afternoon.

Wind gusts looking more limited today based on latest trends, so
have removed this mention. Winds shift towards the north
overnight behind the front, generally remaining below 10 kts
through the period.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Saturday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Clark
NEAR TERM...Clark
SHORT TERM...Clark
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...Clark