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280
FXUS62 KMHX 151351
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
951 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front then pushes through this morning. High pressure
dominates the rest of the weekend into next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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As of 10 AM Saturday...Weak cold front located along a line
between the Albemarle sound and Duplin Co. is currently moving
SE`ward through the CWA, with no significant wind shift, CAA,
or dry air advection behind it. CAPEs will pool across the
southern half of the CWA ahead of stronger back door front,
which will move through the region this afternoon. With initial
front washing out across the Crystal Coast region, a pinned sea
breeze will form today, and be the focus for isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms later this afternoon. With
instability building to around 1.5k J/KG, and 0-6km shear
values at 20-25 kt, a stronger storm or two is possible, though
with main forcing sfc based and not much upper support, no
severe storms are expected. PoPs are highest along the Crystal
Coast and coastal Onslow, in the 30-40% range, and taper back
quickly north of this region, to dry for the northern 2/3 of
the CWA. It will be quite hot today, with NW`rly to N`rly flow
keeping temps in the 90s all the way to the Crystal Coast. The
OBX will be refreshed by N to NE flow off the cooler waters,
and highs only in the low 80s here, particularly for NOBX.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
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As of 10 AM Saturday...No major changes to the forecast with
this update.

Previous Discussion...As of 345 AM Sat...Some lingering showers
possible early this evening, esp swrn zones, before drying
occurs with deep nerly flow overtaking ENC. This will bring
drier air to the region, and pleasant overnight temps are
expected with clear skies and light winds allowing for lows to
drop back to the 60-65 range inland, to upr 60s to near 70
coast.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 3 AM Saturday...

Key Points:
- Extended period of warm, dry weather through next week

Sunday - Tuesday...Strong ridging will build over the eastern US
through mid-week, which will bring several days of warm, dry weather
for ENC. Although temps will still be plenty warm each day (low 90s
coastal plain, mid 80s OBX), onshore easterly flow will work in our
favor to keep us from even hotter temps.

Wednesday - Friday...There are still notable differences in the long
range models, but the consensus is that an upper level low will
develop east of the Bahamas and move west towards the Gulf of
Mexico. In addition, surface troughing will develop across ENC on
Wednesday and stick around through the end of the work week. PoPs
remain below mentionable until Thursday, however, given the lack of
moisture in the column. Confidence in precipitation for coastal
communities is not high enough to go greater than slight chance at
this time.

This extended period of warm, dry weather will also present
increased fire weather concerns through the week with afternoon
minimum RHs dipping to the mid 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through today/...
As of 7 AM Sat...Front is forecast to be crossing coastal TAF
sites around sunrise with N-Nerly winds today as high pressure
beings to build over the area. A few SHRA or stray storm may
develop this afternoon along the seabreeze, best chance srn
coastal sites 18-00Z, but probabilities are too low and covg not
enough to include explicitly in the TAFs attm. Have mentioned a
vcty shower for KOAJ as this area has the best chance to see
some precip late today.

LONG TERM /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
As of 3 AM Saturday...VFR conditions expected through the
period with high pressure remaining dominant through the period.

&&

.MARINE...
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SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 10 AM Saturday...No major changes to the forecast with
this update.

Previous Discussion...As of 345 AM Sat..A period of 10-20kt
northeasterly winds behind back door cold front today as it
moves through during the late morning and afternoon. A few gusts
to 25 kt possible with the nerly surge this afternoon, though
not long enough duration to warrant any SCA headlines. Seas
build to 3-4 ft this afternoon with the nerly winds, with some 5
ft sets possible outer ctrl waters later afternoon into
evening.

LONG TERM /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
As of 3 AM Saturday...Sub-SCA, warm, and dry through the
period.

Sunday: NE 10-15 kt, 2-4 ft (5 ft offshore)
Monday-Tuesday: E 5-10 kt, 2-4 ft
Wednesday: E 10-15 kt, 2-3 ft (4-5 ft offshore)
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&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...TL/RJ
SHORT TERM...TL/RJ
LONG TERM...OJC
AVIATION...TL/OJC
MARINE...TL/OJC/RJ