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FNAK79 PAFG 260135
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Spot Forecast for 119 McDonald...Yukon Dispatch Center
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
535 PM AKDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1900 AKDT on June 25.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible through 9 PM tonight. Storms
will drift north from the Alaska Range, and some may produce outflow
winds even before reaching the fire, as they weaken. Low chance of
wetting rains since these are high-based and isolated. Light winds
through the night with pretty good overnight RH recovery again.

Tomorrow, hotter with min RHs in the low 20s, and isolated thunderstorms
forming off the higher terrain to the east and drifting into the valley.
These may be slightly stronger and may produce more lightning
given the instability. There is a slight chance some storms may
be possible even into the overnight hours. However, wetting
rain chances remain low through Wed night.

On Thu, there is a much higher chance for thunderstorms, as they will
also be much more potentially potent with chances for hail, strong
winds, and heavy downpours.


.REST OF TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (50-60 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (30-40 percent). Scattered rain
                    showers and isolated thunderstorms possible
                    through 9 PM. Storms will move from south to
                    north and may produce outflow winds even if they
                    weaken before reaching the fire.
                    Haze and smoke through the night.
CWR.................5 percent.
LAL.................2.
Min temperature.....Around 55.
Max humidity........79 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms in the evening.
Mixing height.......5900 ft AGL decreasing to 400 ft AGL in the
                    late evening and overnight.
Transport winds.....East around 4 mph.
Inversion setup.....11 PM.

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent) then becoming partly
                    sunny (50-60 percent). Haze through the day.
                    Scattered rain showers and isolated
                    thunderstorms after 3 PM.
CWR.................10 percent.
LAL.................2.
Max temperature.....Around 86.
Min humidity........23 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming east around 6 mph in the
                    afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......800 ft AGL increasing to 6800 ft AGL in the
                    late morning and afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southeast around 9 mph.
Inversion burnoff...9 AM.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (50-60 percent). Scattered rain
                    showers and isolated thunderstorms in the
                    evening, then isolated showers and
                    thunderstorms overnight.
CWR.................10 percent.
LAL.................2.
Min temperature.....Around 56.
Max humidity........77 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......6800 ft AGL decreasing to 400 ft AGL in the
                    late evening and overnight.
Transport winds.....Southeast around 6 mph.
Inversion setup.....12 AM.

$$
Forecaster...AHSENMACHER
Requested by...Casey Lasota
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2416117.23/AFG
.DELDT 06/25/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0