Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
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937 FXUS63 KAPX 241918 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 318 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Watching the potential for some strong thunderstorms later tonight into Tuesday. - Additional chances of active weather return this weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 307 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Pattern Synopsis/Pattern Forecast: Mid/upper level ridge in the process of building east across the area early this afternoon as its surface reflection pushes off into the northern Ohio Valley. Attendant dry air and deep layer subsidence resulting in one downright pleasant early summer day across the Northwoods, with sun-filled skies and temperatures recovering up to near normal levels in the 70s and lower 80s. Rather rapid changes set to take place overnight into Tuesday as shortwave trough, currently racing east across the southern lands of Canada and northern Montana, pushes into the western Great Lakes by morning. Surge of pre-system warm, moist advection and eventual passage of cold front set to bring a round of showers and thunderstorms into the region later tonight. Primary Forecast Concerns/Challenges: Late night into Tuesday shower/storm evolution and severe weather potential. Details: Pleasant evening expected with just some increasing clouds with time. Unfortunately, uncertainty ramps up significantly as we head into the overnight. Strong moisture advection on nose of organizing and intensifying low level jet and attendant rapidly increasing upstream instability axis will drive the organization and intensification of showers and thunderstorms to our west. What happens thereafter remains the unanswered question. If convective allowing guidance`s placement/evolution of low level jet and folding instability gradient is realized, then shower/storm evolution should trend southeast, with most organized and intense activity sliding into southwest lower Michigan later tonight...leaving more "generic" and more scattered activity to impact our area. Pattern recognition of these type of systems strongly supports this idea. However, if forced convergence on nose of low level jet is displaced just a bit further north, then upstream more organized and intense activity has a much better chance to impact at least parts of our area later tonight into early Tuesday. Will definitely need to monitor, as increasing deep layer shear through the depth of the convective layer would support a least a low end severe wind threat...as well as some marginal severe size hail. Latest SPC convective outlook continues to highlight this potential, placing nearly all of northern Michigan into a marginal risk for severe weather. What happens tonight/early Tuesday morning will significantly dictate what transpires later Tuesday. Actual cold front set to cut west to east across our area during the morning and early afternoon, with that timing at least theoretically supporting the potential for additional destabilization...especially across northeast lower Michigan (if skies can at least partially clear). However, primary instability axis will remain well south of us, and any pre-frontal convergence axis (from morning showers/storms) may drive best convergence south and east of our area before actual front arrives. Very possible late Tuesday morning and afternoon are completely devoid of any activity, with showers and storms remaining east and south of our area. Again...if storms can develop, isolated severe potential will continue given brisk wind fields through the vertical. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 307 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024 PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: Longwave troughing will continue chances of active weather before a ridge of high pressure builds overhead promoting quieter weather by mid-week. Low pressure tracks along the northern U.S and Canadian border, and eventually to Lake Superior for Friday/Saturday, bringing back the next chances for showers/ thunderstorms. Temperatures will increase throughout the week then decrease for the weekend as active weather is expected to return. PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: - Precipitation Chances: A shortwave trough will slide across the Great Lakes Region Wednesday bringing increasing cloud cover through the day. Some guidance hints that some light showers could be possible later in the day Wednesday, but confidence is low. Attention then turns to a longwave trough and its associated low pressure will track towards the Great Lakes Region Friday/Saturday bringing active weather back to the forecast area. It`s still too early to message specific impacts, but guidance suggests that it`s likely active weather will return for this weekend- Stay tuned! && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 147 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Only concern is expected arrival of showers and embedded thunderstorms, along with MVFR producing low clouds, from west to east across the taf locations later tonight into early Tuesday morning. Plenty of uncertainty remains with regards to overall shower/storm coverage and intensity...with growing support most organized and intense storms pass across southwest lower Michigan. Will convey this uncertainty through vicinity thunder wording for now. If a north trend materializes, then stronger storms will be capable of producing brief very gusty winds and heavy rain. Slow improvement expected as we head through later Tuesday morning. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MSB LONG TERM...NSC AVIATION...MSB