489
AXNT20 KNHC 010601
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon Jul 1 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0555 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Major Hurricane Beryl is centered near 11.5N 59.1W at 2 AM EDT and
is moving W at 16 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 965
mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 105 kt with gusts to 130 kt.
Peak seas are currently near 37 ft. A continued quick westward to
west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. On
the forecast track, the center of Beryl is expected to move across
the Windward Islands this morning and across the southeastern and
central Caribbean Sea late today through Wednesday. Beryl is a
category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
Fluctuations in strength are likely during the next day or so, but
Beryl is expected to remain a dangerous major hurricane as its
core moves through the Windward Islands into the eastern Caribbean.
Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches
across Barbados and the Windward Islands through Monday. Localized
maxima of 10 inches is possible, especially in the Grenadines.
This rainfall may cause flash flooding in vulnerable areas. Large
swells generated by Beryl are expected across Windward and
southern Leeward Islands during the next couple of days. Swells
are also expected to reach the southern coasts of Puerto Rico and
Hispaniola in the next day or so. These swells are expected to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office. Please read the
latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane center
at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the
latest Beryl NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov

Tropical Storm Chris is near 20.0N 96.7W at 2 AM EDT, and is
moving west at 11 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt with gusts
to 45 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Peak seas
are currently near 11 ft along the coast of Veracruz. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is present in the Bay of
Campeche, NE and SE Mexico. This general westward motion is
expected during the next day or so. On the forecast track, the
center of Chris will continue farther inland over eastern Mexico
through today. Weakening is expected as Chris moves farther
inland, and the system will likely dissipate over the higher
terrain later today. Tropical Storm Chris is expected to produce
rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches across portions of eastern Mexico
through today. Maximum rainfall totals around 12 inches are
possible across the higher terrain of the Mexican states of
Guanajuato, Queretaro, and San Luis Potosi. This rainfall will
result in areas of flooding, with mudslides possible in areas of
higher terrain. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued
by the National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Three
NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov
for more details.

Central Tropical Atlantic (Invest AL96): Showers and thunderstorms
continue in association with an area of low pressure located
about 1000 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. A
recent scatterometer satellite pass showed fresh to strong winds
in association with this system. Peak seas are currently near 7
ft. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to
form by the middle part of this week while it moves generally
westward at 15 to 20 mph across the central and western tropical
Atlantic. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of this system. This system has a MEDIUM chance of
tropical cyclone development over the next 48 hours and a HIGH
chance of development in the next 7 days.

Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.hurricanes.gov for the latest on Invest AL96.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave associated with Invest 96L is
along 36W, south of 13N, moving westward at 10 kt. A 1010 mb low
pres is along the wave trough near 08N36W. Scattered moderate
convection is from observed from 06N to 10N and between 31W and
40W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 73W, south of 20N, moving
westward at 10-15 kt. A few showers are noted near the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 18N16W and continues southwestward to Invest 96L
and then to 06N44W. The ITCZ extends from 06N44W to 12N54W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present from
05N to 11N and east of 18W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for the latest details
on Tropical Storm Chris located inland in Veracruz.

Outside of Tropical Storm Chris in the Bay of Campeche, weak high
pressure dominates the Gulf of Mexico. Upper level trough over the
eastern United States is producing showers and isolated
thunderstorms along the northern and NE Gulf coast, affecting the
nearshore waters. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are occurring
in the south of 27N and west of 90W. Seas in these waters are 5-8
ft. Light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are
prevalent in the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Chris is near 20.0N 96.2W at 11 PM EDT,
and is moving west at 11 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt
with gusts to 45 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1005 mb.
Chris will move inland and weaken to a tropical depression near
20.3N 97.9W Mon morning, and dissipate Mon evening. Meanwhile
gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the NE half of the
Gulf for the start of the week. Marine conditions will improve in
the SW half of the Gulf Mon in the wake of Chris with ridging and
gentle to moderate winds prevailing across the basin through
early Thu. Thereafter, distant Hurricane Beryl currently
approaching the eastern Caribbean is forecast to be in the NW
Caribbean by Thu afternoon. Hurricane Beryl is near 11.5N 58.1W at
11 PM EDT, and is moving west at 17 kt. Maximum sustained winds
are 115 kt with gusts to 140 kt, and the minimum central pressure
is 959 mb. Beryl is forecast to be near 19.0N 85.9W late Thu, then
near 20.7N 91.5W in the SW Gulf late Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for the latest details
on Major Hurricane Beryl approaching the Windward Islands and
Invest 96L located in the central Atlantic.

A 1032 mb high pressure system centered near 38N37W extends
southwestward into the Caribbean Sea. A recent scatterometer
satellite pass captured fresh to locally near gale-force easterly
trade winds in the central Caribbean. Seas in these waters are
6-10 ft. The strongest winds and highest seas are occurring off NW
Colombia. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and seas of 4-7 ft
are found in the eastern Caribbean and Bay of Campeche. Elsewhere,
moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are found in
the rest of the basin. A weak surface trough over the NW Bahamas
and divergence aloft result in scattered showers affecting Cuba
and nearby waters.

For the forecast, Hurricane Beryl is near 11.5N 58.1W at 11 PM EDT,
and is moving west at 17 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 115 kt
with gusts to 140 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 959 mb.
Beryl will move to 12.2N 60.7W Mon morning, 13.4N 64.2W Mon
evening, 14.8N 68.0W Tue morning, 15.9N 72.0W Tue evening, 16.7N
75.8W Wed morning, and 17.6N 79.5W Wed evening. Beryl will change
little in intensity as it moves to 19.0N 85.9W late Thu, then
near 20.7N 91.5W late Fri. Meanwhile, fresh to strong E to SE near
the Gulf of Honduras will diminish later tonight. Fresh to strong
winds will pulse in the central Caribbean through Tue morning in
advance of Beryl. A surge of fresh to strong winds may move into
the tropical N Atlantic Tue night through Wed, then into the
eastern and central Caribbean thereafter, associated with an area
of low pressure which has the potential for tropical cyclone
formation.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for the latest details
on Major Hurricane Beryl approaching the Windward Islands and
Invest 96L located in the central Atlantic.

An expansive and strong Bermuda-Azores high pressure system
dominates the tropical Atlantic. A couple of weak surface troughs
in the SW North Atlantic result in scattered showers in the NW
and central Bahamas and nearby waters. Moderate to fresh easterly
trade winds and seas of 5-8 ft are evident from 19N to 25N and
betwen 55W and the Bahamas. Light to gentle winds and slight to
moderate seas are noted in the rest of the SW North Atlantic.

The pressure gradient between the aforementioned ridge and lower
pressures in NW Africa sustain fresh to strong northerly winds
north of 19N and east of 25W. Seas in these waters are 6-9 ft.
Outside of the influence of Hurricane Beryl and Invest 96L,
moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent in the
rest of the tropical Atlantic.

For the forecast west of 55W, ridging will support gentle to
moderate winds and slight to moderate seas north of 25N, with
moderate to fresh trades and mainly moderate seas south of 25N,
locally strong north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola at times,
through the next several days. A decaying cold front may drop
south of 31N Tue through Wed, potentially stalling and lingering
near 29N/30N through the end of the week. Otherwise, Hurricane
Beryl is near 11.5N 58.1W at 11 PM EDT, and is moving west at 17
kt. Maximum sustained winds are 115 kt with gusts to 140 kt, and
the minimum central pressure is 959 mb. Beryl will move to 12.2N
60.7W Mon morning, 13.4N 64.2W Mon evening, 14.8N 68.0W Tue
morning, 15.9N 72.0W Tue evening, 16.7N 75.8W Wed morning, and
17.6N 79.5W Wed evening. Beryl will change little in intensity as
it moves to 19.0N 85.9W late Thu, then near 20.7N 91.5W late Fri.

$$
Delgado