409
AXNT20 KNHC 162216
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Jun 17 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Heavy Rainfall over Central America and Mexico, and gale warning
over the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure is centered over northern Central
America and southern Mexico. Environmental conditions over the
southwesternGulf appear conducive for subsequent gradual
development of the low, and a tropical depression or tropical
storm could form by midweek while it moves slowly westward or
west-northwestward.

This weather pattern is known as a Central American Gyre (CAG),
and often persists for several days. Regardless of tropical
cyclone development, this weather pattern will cause life-
threatening conditions that include flooding and mudslides. With
the current CAG, the circulation is producing strong SW monsoonal
flow in the eastern north Pacific that will advect abundant
tropical moisture northward into the coastal terrain of Central
America and southern Mexico. The pattern is expected to persist
through at least the middle of this week across northern Central
America and southern Mexico, with the threat to life and property
increasing as the event persists. The main areas impacted by the
heavy rainfall will be northwest Nicaragua, southwest Honduras,
and coastal sections of Honduras, El Salvador, Guatemala, and the
Mexican states of Chiapas and Oaxaca. Heavy rainfall is also
possible across Quintana Roo, Yucatan, Tabasco, Veracruz,
northeast Queretaro, northeast Hidalgo, and San Luis Potosi this
week.

The persistence of the moist pattern will create very hazardous
conditions in the region that could be life-threatening. Please
refer to your local meteorological office bulletins for more
detailed information.

For mariners in the Gulf of Mexico, the developing broad low
pressure will also support increasing winds and building seas
across the Gulf of Mexico through mid week. Expect rough seas to 8
ft starting tonight across the south- central Gulf. Seas will
build further through Mon, with winds increasing to minimal gale
force north of the Yucatan Peninsula early in the afternoon.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of an eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 25W, from
15N southward, moving westward around 10-15 kt. No significant
convection is evident near the wave.

The axis of a central Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed near
57W, extending from 16N southward. It is moving west at 10-15 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 16N between 50W and
55W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea
Bissau near 12N16W, then continues westward to 06N30W. The ITCZ
extends from 06N30W to 05N52W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted along the ITCZ between 25W and 30W, and from 40W and 48W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on the
possibility of heavy rainfall across the Yucatan Peninsula,
Tabasco, Veracruz, and parts of Queretaro, Hidalgo, and San Luis
Potosi this week.

A Central American Gyre is currently over southern Mexico and
Central America. A surface trough extends over the southwest Gulf
and runs from 23N96W toward a 1006 mb low pressure located near
northern Guatemala/Mexico border. The pressure gradient between a
ridge across the eastern Gulf and the low supports moderate to
fresh winds over the south-central Gulf, with gentle to moderate
winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range over the central and
southeast Gulf, and 2-4 ft elsewhere. A large cluster of showers
and thunderstorms are active along the west coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are evident
elsewhere across the central Gulf.

For the forecast, the gyre center is expected to persist through
the middle of this week, while shifting WNW to NW into the
southwest Gulf of Mexico. A broad area of low pressure is
forecast to form from this system over the SW Gulf of Mexico on
Monday or Tuesday. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
subsequent gradual development of the low, and a tropical
depression or tropical storm could form by midweek while it moves
slowly W or W-NW. Heavy showers and thunderstorms across the
southeast Gulf, along with increasing winds to gale-force and
rough seas, are expected to shift over the W Gulf with this system
Mon evening through late Wed.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on the
potential for heavy rainfall across the Yucatan Peninsula this
week.

A Central American Gyre is currently over southern Mexico and
Central America. The circulation around the gyre is supporting
strong to near-gale force SE winds over the northwest Caribbean,
where combined seas are 6-8 ft. Moderate to fresh winds are noted
elsewhere, with 4-6 ft seas. Numerous showers and scattered
thunderstorms are active between Honduras and Jamaica.

For the forecast, the gyre center is expected to persist through
the middle of this week, while shifting WNW to NW into the Gulf of
Mexico. The resultant pattern will continue to produce fresh to
near gale-force SE winds and scattered showers and thunderstorms
across the western Caribbean this evening, then shift across the
Gulf of Mexico tonight through Wed. Otherwise, gentle to moderate
trades over the central and eastern Caribbean will reach moderate
to fresh speeds on Wed and prevail through Fri evening.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends from 31N60W to a weak 1015 mb low
pressure located near 28N64W, then continues southward toward the
Windward Passage. Scattered showers and thunderstorm are active
along this trough near 26N66W. Moderate NE winds and 3 to 5 ft
seas are noted west of the trough, with light breezes and 2 to 4
ft elsewhere west of 55W.

The remainder of the Atlantic discussion area is dominated by
1025 mb high pressure near 34N38W. This pattern is supporting
light to gentle breezes and 4-6 ft combined seas north of 20N
between 35W and 55W, and moderate to fresh NE to E winds and 5-7
ft combined seas elsewhere east of 55W.

For the forecast west of 55W, gentle to moderate NE to E winds
will reach fresh speeds north of 25N and west of 60W by Mon
morning, as high pressure builds north of the area. The low will
weaken into a trough by Mon night, however, a low pressure is
forecast to re-develop by midweek a few hundred miles northeast of
the central Bahamas. Environmental conditions could be conducive
for some development of this system thereafter while it moves
westward or west-northwestward. Regardless of development, fresh
to strong winds and rough seas will develop across the offshore
waters north of 25N Mon night through Thu.

$$
Christensen