736
FXUS61 KBGM 182355
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
755 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and humid conditions with afternoon and evening
thunderstorms are expected through the entire week. A break in
the heat may not come until the end of the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
740 pm update...

Updated chances of precipitation to be coverage over the area
and lowered the PoPs till it was mostly isolated thunderstorms
rather than scattered. Mesoanalysis still shows bountiful
instability with mixed layer CAPE still around 3000. Given the
conditions storms will have to me monitored west and southwest
of the region to see if they become an MCS. If one develops, the
cold pool associated with the MCS could help it propagate into
our region and maintain convection through the overnight hours.

350 PM Update:

A bit of a messy setup is in place this afternoon due to very
light steering flows. Any isolated thunderstorms that have
developed have been rather slow moving with erratic storm
motions. These storms have tended to especially hang around
higher terrain areas. Some of these storms have briefly pulsed
up, resulting in some pockets of wind damage. This threat will
continue to be localized/not widespread the remainder of the
afternoon. In addition, with elevated PWATs, combined with the
slow/erratic storm motions, isolated instances of flash flooding
is possible.

Some lingering showers or thunderstorms will be possible
tonight, especially this evening with lingering CAPE present,
but the overall diurnal trend will continue and coverage will
be diminishing. Otherwise, a partly cloudy night is in store
with continued muggy conditions (lows only in the upper 60s to
mid 70s).

Rinse and repeat for Wednesday with pretty much a persistence
forecast being utilized. In other words, it will be another hot
and humid day with afternoon scattered showers and
thunderstorms. Highs are again expected to be in the upper 80s
to mid 90s, which may again depend on where/if thunderstorms
develop. Then similar conditions are expected Wednesday night
(warm/muggy with lows only in the upper 60s to lower 70s).

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
110 PM Update:

The short term period will feature more of the same weather; hot
and humid with scattered showers and thunderstorms as multiple
waves move around the periphery of the dominating ridge. This
creates a bit of a challenging forecast for temperatures, as it
is possible that clouds from thunderstorms/convective debris may
hold back temperatures a bit in spots, yet also increase dew
points. Widespread highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s are
expected on Thursday, with perhaps slightly cooler temperatures
on Friday with a greater chance of seeing afternoon showers and
thunderstorms. With ample CAPE in place, some thunderstorms may
become strong to severe both days. Limited shear will be present
on Thursday, but shear increases a bit on Friday, especially
along and north of the NY Thruway corridor.

While the current heat advisory goes through Thursday, it is
possible that this may need to be extended to include Friday at
a later time.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
110 PM Update:

Not much has changed in the long term period with more of the
same expected during the weekend (hot and humid with scattered
showers and thunderstorms, especially each afternoon). By
Sunday, the ridge starts to finally break down, but with an
approaching shortwave and cold front, coverage of showers and
thunderstorms will increase a bit Sunday and Sunday night. Then
temperatures cool down a bit for the beginning of next week, but
still remain a bit above normal. Depending on the timing of the
cold front, scattered showers and thunderstorms may linger into
Monday, before conditions dry out for Tuesday as high pressure
moves in.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR TAFs have been kept for most terminals over the next 24
hours. There will be isolated thunderstorms tonight and tomorrow
but coverage is minimal and chances of impacting an airport is
low. ELM has a chance at fog as dew points this afternoon stayed
above 70 so there is plenty of moisture for fog if the skies
stay clear through the night.

Another concern will be the evolution of thunderstorms S and W
of us early tonight as that could potentially become a cluster
of thunderstorms that propagate through the region late tonight
if they can amass together in the next few hours.

Outlook...

Wednesday afternoon through Sunday...Spotty restrictions
possible in showers and thunderstorms, with probabilities
increasing slowly in the later part of the period.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for PAZ038>040-043-044-
     047-048-072.
NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for NYZ009-015>018-
     022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
     Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ062.
     Air Quality Alert from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Wednesday for NYZ062.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BJG
NEAR TERM...AJG/BJG
SHORT TERM...BJG
LONG TERM...BJG
AVIATION...AJG/BJG