185
FXUS61 KBGM 180639
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
239 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain showers are expected to move into the area overnight and
last into Saturday afternoon. A stretch of welcomed dry and
warm weather is expected from Sunday into Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1025 PM Update:

No changes were needed with the late evening update. Previous
discussions below remain valid.

650 PM Update...

Minor adjustments made to PoPs the next several hours slowing
down the advancing showers currently over far western parts of
the CWA with drier air still in place farther east and decent
dew point depressions. Thunder chances were also reduced over
the next few hours with little in the way of shear and
instability in place, but kept slight chances in around the
Finger Lakes to near SYR.

Previous Discussion:
A pretty nice spring afternoon across the
area with partly cloudy skies and temperatures in the upper 60s
to mid 70s. A shortwave trough currently over Michigan will move
into the region later this evening. A plume of deep moisture is
showing up in guidance from the surface to 500mb along the
leading edge of the trough. This will bring rain showers to the
western part of the CWA by mid-evening, spreading from west to
east. This rain will have to battle mid-level dry air currently
over the region so its progression eastward will be slow. Also
slowing the progression will be high pressure building into the
region from Nova Scotia. This allows the surface low to slow to
a crawl as it spins over western NY. This, combined with the ESE
flow from the low spinning off the Mid-Atlantic coast pumping
in low level moisture to the region will allow for rain to fall
into the Saturday morning. Rain should taper off starting mid
morning as dry air works its way into the area from the north
and the surface low dissipates. The last of the shower chances
should push south of the area late afternoon. Total rainfall
looks to be between 0.1 and 0,5 inches, with areas west of I-81
seeing the higher totals. Cloudy and cooler on Saturday thanks
to the cloud cover, with highs in the mid 60s to low 70s across
the region. Calm conditions last into Saturday night, with
temperatures in the low to mid 50s and some patchy valley fog in
the Twin Tiers and Catskills.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

High pressure will be over the region Sunday night with the ridge
likely to remain in place through Monday night. This will result in
winds shifting to southwesterly gradually bringing in a warmer and
slightly more humid airmass. Temperatures still look to fall into
the 50`s to around 60 at night with highs pushing 80 Monday for most
locations.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

The large ridge of high pressure still looks to be over the region
Tuesday before being chipped away by an approaching cold front
Wednesday. This front then looks to break down the ridge Thursday.
Enough lift and moisture looks present for at least some scattered
showers with the frontal passage. Instability during the afternoons
surface CAPE is currently modeled from about 500-1000 J/KG each
afternoon and evening so some thunderstorms will be possible as
well. Still some timing differences with the operational models and
ensemble guidance with the frontal timing. Leaned more toward the
slower ECMWF suite at this time. Given the timing differences it is
still to early to determine the potential for any strong to severe
thunderstorms.

Continued warm air advection should result in a continued warming
trend through Wednesday. Trended high temperatures through the
middle of the week closer to a blend of the 50/75th probability of
the NBM given the modeled boundary layer temperatures. Most
locations should rise well into the 80`s with a few locations close
to 90 on Wednesday. With dewpoints only around 60, heat index values
should not be much higher. Lows generally in the 60`s at night.

With the front moving through Wednesday night and Thursday some
lingering showers and thunderstorms are possible but temperatures
Thursday and Friday trend back downward again after the frontal
passage with 70`s for highs.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Cigs have been slow to drop to MVFR with the rain at ELM so the
timing of the MVFR cigs have been pushed back. SYR and RME are
on the north end of the rain and with SE flow, VFR conditons
will likely persist over the next 24 hours. ELM and BGM are most
likely to see IFR with ELM seeing heavier precipitation
increasing low level moisture and then BGM will have moist SE
flow that frequently results in IFR cigs especially when it is
raining. ITH and AVP will see rain but cigs stay more elevated
with downslope winds at both terminals.

Tomorrow the rain clears up and cigs raise with VFR conditions
returning at all terminals by around 0Z.

Outlook...

Saturday night...Decreasing chance of showers but restrictions
from fog is possible.

Sunday through Wednesday...Mainly VFR. Some showers possible by
Wednesday.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BJG/JTC
NEAR TERM...BJG/DK/JTC
SHORT TERM...MWG
LONG TERM...MWG
AVIATION...AJG