665
FXUS64 KBRO 201735 AAB
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1235 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

The wind advisory was allowed to expire earlier this morning and
the Flood Watch will also be allowed to expire at 1 PM. The
scattered showers noted over Deep South Texas are moving west at
20-30 mph and with rainfall rates 1-2 inches/hr widespread
flooding is not expected. However, brief nuisance street flooding
is not out of the question if training cells occur over any
particular area.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 359 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Tropical Storm Alberto will continue to be a factor for the short
term period. As the system makes landfall it will begin to
weaken, allowing winds to subside slightly. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected to continue into the day, as the last
of the rain bands move onshore. Seas are expected to remain
elevated through the period, and will likely continue to produce
coastal hazards in the form of coastal flooding, high risk of rip
currents, and high surf.

Some lingering tropical moisture looks to keep rain chances
elevated through the remainder of the period. The additional
rainfall could continue to support a threat for flash flooding
through the period. The WPC has a slight risk of excessive
rainfall across Deep South Texas today, and a marginal risk
Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 359 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Upper-level high pressure over the southern US will continue to
funnel additional tropical moisture towards Deep South Texas.
Model guidance is continuing to suggest another tropical system
developing over the Southern Gulf this weekend, and the NHC has a
50% chance for tropical cyclone development within the next 7
days. If this system does end up developing, we could see
additional rainfall by early next week. Conditions look to finally
dry out by the end of the period, with heat taking back over,
potentially warranting heat advisories.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Scattered showers through the afternoon with a few thunderstorms
are possible. Scattered to Broken cloud cover to maintain general
VFR to occasional MVFR ceilings. Showers activity is expected to
taper off in overall coverage but conditions to remain active for
on and off shower activity through Saturday. East winds remain
gusty with gusts 25-30kts through 21/00Z. Winds steadily drop off
through the evening and overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 359 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Hazardous marine conditions will continue today. As Tropical Storm
Alberto moves onshore, winds are expected to continue to decrease
through the day, allowing seas to begin subsiding. Light to
moderate winds and moderate seas are expected to return by the end
of the weekend and remain through the period. However, there is
some potential for another tropical system to develop in the
Southern Gulf this weekend, which could drastically change the
forecast. The NHC has a 50% chance for tropical cyclone formation
in the next 7-days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             91  80  92  78 /  90  60  80  50
HARLINGEN               89  76  92  75 /  90  50  70  50
MCALLEN                 89  78  92  76 /  90  60  60  40
RIO GRANDE CITY         88  77  90  75 /  90  70  70  30
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      88  83  87  81 /  80  60  70  50
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     90  80  89  78 /  80  60  70  50

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for TXZ248>255-351-
     353>355-451-454-455.

     Coastal Flood Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ351-354-
     355-451-454-455.

     High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for TXZ451-454-455.

     High Surf Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ451-454-455.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Friday for GMZ130-132-135-
     150-155-170-175.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60-BE
LONG TERM....60-BE
AVIATION...59-GB