045
FXUS64 KEWX 011936
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
236 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 114 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Mid-level ridging will remain in control of the weather pattern
across South-Central Texas through the short term period despite
it`s center axis gradually shifting eastward from Northeast Texas
into the southeastern CONUS with time through the period. The light
to at times moderate south-southeasterly flow persists across the
region as broad surface high pressure extends into and across the
Gulf of Mexico. The south-southeasterly flow is helping to push a
light to moderate concentrated plume of some Saharan Dust into and
across the region. This may yield to a more hazy (milky) sky and
slightly more vibrant colors toward sunset/sunrise. Summer heat
continues otherwise with afternoon highs ranging from the mid to
upper 90s into the 100 to 103 degree range. While the heat indices
are likely to peak slightly higher for some locations, dew point
temperatures are expected to mix out efficiently enough into and
during each afternoon to keep the values shy of the Heat Advisory
criteria. Overall, conditions are to remain rain free under mostly
sunny to partly cloudy skies.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 114 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

The first 2.5 days of the extended will be somewhat persistence-like
as a flat but still dominant mid-level ridge remains entrenched over
the Deep South with the western periphery of this ridge over South
Central TX. This pattern allows for a broad but fairly light onshore
flow in the low to mid levels, with a rather slow influx of deeper
gulf moisture showing up in the GFS PWat forecast through Friday.
Expect a somewhat flat trend in temperatures and heat indices through
Friday afternoon.

By Friday, a potent upper trough digs into the Central/Northern
Plains and sends a cold front into the Southern Plains. Convection
fires along the front first over the Central Plains late Thursday,
and it remains robust long enough to bring "chance" category PoPs
into parts of North Central and West Central TX. So our northern
counties will be on the outer edge of this slowing down cold front
and lowering PoP area as the weakness moves into the more dominant
region of the ridge. We`ll show little or no reflection of outflow or
frontal winds Friday night into Saturday, but we could at least get
some isolated showers and storms from 18Z Friday to 00Z Sunday. While
coverage will be quite low, slow storm cell motion could mean an
isolated spot or two could get heavy rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches.

While this weakness in the upper ridge sits over North Central TX
this weekend, a more newsworthy feature enters the picture from the
Atlantic tropics. Powerful hurricane Beryl over the Caribbean Sea is
chugging along at 20 mph toward the Yucatan Peninsula. There remains
quite a spread of solutions after the land interaction that would
probably take place Friday. The amount of weakening of the ridging
over the CONUS could afterwards interact with this system, which
could potentially bring a slight turn of the tropical cyclone track
farther north. There are also a healthy amount of model solutions to
maintain little or no change in direction. For now the Day-5 cone of
uncertainty is firmly in the region of the Bay of Campeche with the
northern border of this cone possibly on track to enter Deep South TX
should the NHC forecast track be unchanged through tomorrow. With a
holiday weekend approaching and a fairly high visibility of this
strong Hurricane already dominating the news, it was decided that we
begin messaging some slight potential impact to our area just outside
the 7-day forecast. While there spread in tracks vary widely among
the medium range solutions, there seems to be a consensus that the
weakness in the upper ridging over the plains might hang around long
enough to give us at least a day or two of tropical rain and milder
temperatures sometime early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1203 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

VFR flight conditions will prevail through the period with few to
sct fair weather cumulus each afternoon and few to sct low clouds
overnight into each morning. The San Antonio sites may see a brief
instance of MVFR ceilings Tuesday morning. Winds remain light to
moderate from the south to southeast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry             101  78 102  78 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  99  75 101  75 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport    100  76 101  75 /   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            99  77 100  76 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport          102  80 104  81 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        99  77 100  77 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             99  75 101  76 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        98  75  99  74 /   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   98  77  99  76 /   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       99  77 101  78 /   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport          101  76 102  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...Brady
Long-Term...18
Aviation...Brady