Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
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239 FXUS63 KFGF 230911 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 411 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms move into eastern North Dakota, especially northeast parts, after midnight Sunday night. Isolated severe storms possible. - Monday will see additional severe storm chances all areas as a front moves in. All hazards possible. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 340 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 ...Synopsis... Upper low is moving from Manitoba into southern parts of NW Ontraio today. Lingering showers are possible around Lake of the Woods mainly this morning with afternoon thunderstorms associated with this upper low likely to be more Intl Falls and east. High pressure will build in today giving us a good deal of sunshine, though may have to deal with some early morning low clouds and patchy fog. ...Late tonight... Water vapor showing our next system moving into west central B.C. from the Pacific and this upper low will track east thru central Canadian praries from Edmonton region this afternoon to central Manitoba 18z Monday. Surface low with this feature also will track well north of the International border. This system is quite strong and there will be a 40kt 850 mb jet that will develop this evening from eastern Montana north thru central Saskatchewan just ahead of a surface trough. No thunderstorms to our south with this feature so with growing crops moisture advection sfc-850 mb will be impressive with dew pts into the 60s into Saskatchewan and eastern Montana this evening. T-storms likely to form near sfc trough Saskatoon area to west of Regina SK late today and then move east-southeast and continue to develop with aid of warm advection at 850 mb and low level jet. Late evening/midnight period storms will move into north central ND and then should spread thru parts of eastern ND, especially northeast parts, pre dawn hours Monday morning. Low level jet maintains 40-50 kts and warm advection is strong at 850 mb thru 12z Monday into E ND. Therefore storms will survive and could be near severe levels with hail and wind threat. Storms will be elevated in nature, rooted 850 mb layer. SPC has a marginal risk of severe storms into NE ND for this reason late tonight. ...Monday... Conditions Monday will favor severe storm development. Lots of questions yet as morning convection will likely move thru and may impact degree of warming in the aftn. Dew pts will reach the low 70s in many areas though esp withing the RRV. Speed of movement of surface trough is also an issue, with drier airmass behind it. Latest HRRR indicates though a bit slower movement of this trough/wind shift east than some global models suggest. CAMs indicate sfc trough may still be located Langdon-Devils Lake-Jamestown area. MU CAPES in the 3000-4500 j/kg will exit 21z Monday in E ND/RRV and models indicate cape will be eroding with HRRR indicate CIN values after 21z rapidly lowering. So thoughts would be some initiation along or just east of the sfc trough Monday mid aftn and move into into MN in the evening. Location of development as mentioned is keyed on position of sfc trough/wind shift. 50-65 kt 0-6 km bulk shear more than enough for supercell formation initially which likely will evolve into more of a line into MN Monday evening. ...Late week... The next in the endless series of upper waves moving thru southern/central Canada will likely bring a round of thunderstorms, potentially strong, late Thursday or Friday to the area. Heavy rain threat too. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1048 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 MVFR ceilings in BJI otherwise VFR until the Early morning hours. Chance for IFR for the four northern sites as the low passes in the morning hours through unsure just how low ceilings get currently. Could see intermittent LIFR but confidence doesnt yet justify putting it in the forecast. Winds variable tonight becoming northwest around 10kts and thunderstorms chances remain past the TAF period Monday morning. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Riddle AVIATION...TT