435
FXUS65 KFGZ 271552
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
852 AM MST Thu Jun 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...The daily chance for afternoon and evening showers
and thunderstorms will continue today. Activity decreases for
Friday and Saturday, and then slowly ramps up again from Sunday
into next week.

&&

.UPDATE...An interesting morning across northern Arizona as some
thunderstorms have developed northeast of the Mogollon Rim. The
most notable of these is a line of severe storms currently moving
through Winslow. These appear to be developing out ahead of a
weak disturbance across northwestern Arizona. This feature will
gradually move east through the day, helping to keep the focus
for storms today across northeastern Arizona. In addition,
southwest flow increases today in response to a trough moving
through the northern Rockies. Wind shear will increase along the
Utah border which may help generate some longer lived convection
this afternoon and evening across the northeast. Flash flooding
will be a concern with any training thunderstorms, and a few
strong to severe storms producing hail and strong winds are also
possible. Have updated precipitation chances today to reflect the
ongoing convection this morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /342 AM MST/...One final day of monsoonal
showers and storms are expected today. Activity should be
concentrated along and northeast of the Mogollon Rim. Meanwhile, a
trough is moving eastward across the NW U.S. This trough is
what`s shifting the high driving our monsoonal precipitation.
While the high shifts, afternoon winds will be increasing this
afternoon and tomorrow with gusts 20-30 mph.

Friday will be significantly drier than recent days. CAMs do
still show some isolated activity to the east, including over the
Navajo and Hopi Nations. Overall moisture availability is
significantly lower with these, so showers will predominately
generate virga and thunderstorms will be high based.

Drier weather will presist into Saturday, but isolated shower and
storm activity is expected over the White Mountains. During this
period of drier weather, daytime temperatures are expected to warm
some.

Sunday going into next week sees high pressure building back. This
will translate into gradually increasing shower and storm chances
pushing back west for the end of the weekend, into next week. Each
day next week will bring shower and storm chances, but with
fluctuations in coverage and intensity.

&&

.AVIATION...Thursday 27/12Z through Friday 28/12Z...SHRA/TSRA
possible north and east of a P23-KSEZ-E24 line 19Z-03Z. SHRA may
linger near E91/KRQE through 09Z. Brief MVFR conditions and
gusty, erratic winds possible in and around TS. SW winds 10-15 kts
with gusts up to 20-25 kts before 03Z, then becoming light and
variable.

OUTLOOK...Friday 28/12Z through Sunday 30/12Z...TSRA/SHRA possible
east of a KPGA-KINW-KJTC line, 19Z Friday-03Z Saturday. Another
round of TSRA/SHRA possible in vicinity of KSOW/KJTC on Saturday.
Winds SW 10-15 ks on Friday, subsiding to 5-10 kts on Saturday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Friday...Scattered showers and storms
along and north of the Mogollon Rim this afternoon, with isolated
storms possible again on Friday over eastern Arizona. Gusty, erratic
winds, heavy rainfall, and hail possible in any stronger storms.
Warm temperatures with breezy southwest winds 10-20 mph each day.

Saturday through Monday...Isolated storms remain in the White
Mountains on Saturday, with coverage then gradually increasing
across the state for Sunday and Monday. Warm temperatures with
southwest winds 10-15 mph each day.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MCT/RKR
AVIATION...Humphreys
FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff