063
FXUS64 KHUN 260632
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
132 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 132 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

A rather complicated forecast setup takes shape for today,
especially in regards to thunderstorm development across the
forecast area this afternoon/evening. Early this morning, two
MCS`s are currently propagating south and east. The first one
across southeast MO, northeast AR, and western TN has generally
had a weakening trend the last few hours. However, if this can
hold together, this could result in some low chances of
showers/storms around daybreak in northwest AL. The second MCS is
across southeast NE and northern MO. This one has really
intensified over the last hour or two, with a history of a 90mph
wind gust in Omaha, NE. Overall, the CAMs are struggling to
resolve these two clusters, but they are more bullish on the one
further to the northwest. There is decent agreement that this
system will race SSE into AR, MS, and western AL by this
afternoon. The good news is that the latest forecast runs continue
to miss our local forecast area to the west. Unfortunately, as is
the case with summertime convection in the Southeast, things can
change rather quickly, especially with mesoscale driven features.
That being said, we do expect an increase in convection across the
TN Valley this afternoon, primarily diurnally driven along
residual outflow boundaries from the aformentioned MCS`s. Some
could become strong to severe producing gusty to damaging winds,
given a rather unstable environment. But, the lack of any
appreciable wind shear should limit storm organization.

Prior to any storms developing this afternoon, another very warm
day is expected with afternoon highs topping out in the mid to
upper 90s. Moisture advection is expected during the day, which
will bring dewpoints back into the upper 60s. This will bring heat
index values into the 100F-104F range, just below advisory
criteria.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 132 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Convection should gradually wane with the loss of daytime heating
this evening. A mild night is in store with overnight lows only
dropping into the upper 60s to lower 70s. Fog may be possible if
there are breaks in the cloud cover, especially in locations that
see some rainfall this afternoon. However, it should be sparse in
coverage.

A relatively "cool" day is forecast on Thursday with afternoon
highs only expected to reach the upper 80s to lower 90s. This is due
to lingering clouds in the morning and the potential for more
thunderstorms during peak heating hours. After several days in
the upper 90s, this will feel somewhat refreshing. With the
convection being diurnally driven, expect scattered coverage and
for storms to end by the evening.

The upper and mid level ridge begins to shift back east to end the
work week. Southwesterly flow at the sfc will advect in both a
warmer and more moisture rich airmass. As a result, afternoon
highs once again soar into the mid 90s on Friday and the upper 90s
on Saturday. Dewpoints are forecast to be in the low to mid 70s,
which would push heat index values above 105 degrees during the
afternoon hours. However, the blended guidance may be a bit too
high with the dewpoints, especially if the area does not see any
appreciable rainfall over the next few days. This will be
something to keep on eye on in future forecast updates.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Tuesday)
Issued at 132 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

The general upper level ridge pattern remains unchanged through
the long term forecast period. As a result, hot and humid
conditions are expected Sunday through Tuesday. Expect afternoon
temperatures to rise into the mid 90s both Sunday and Monday, and
the upper 90s on Tuesday. The good news is that daily diurnal
thunderstorms are expected. This should help limit how hot we get
each afternoon. Maximum heat index values once again will be in
the upper 90s to lower 100s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1148 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

VFR conditions will persist at the terminals overnight beneath an
increasing coverage of mid/high-level convective debris clouds.
Any development of BR/FG btwn 8-13Z will be confined to locations
near large bodies of water, and we will not include vsby
reductions in the TAFs attm. There is some concern that a
developing MCS across southeastern MO may drop south-
southeastward, potentially impacting MSL around sunrise, with
additional but isolated SHRA/TSRA possible thru the late morning
hours. However, the greatest coverage of convection will likely
occur btwn 20-02Z as an outflow boundary from a larger MCS across
MO/AR shifts eastward into the TN Valley, and PROB30 groups have
been included at both airports during this timeframe. Lgt SSE sfc
flow will veer to SW and increase to 5-10 kts by 15Z.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GH
SHORT TERM....GH
LONG TERM....GH
AVIATION...70