984
FXUS61 KILN 222342
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
742 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Heat wave continues today before a brief respite arrives Sunday into
Monday with slightly cooler and drier air, especially on Monday. A
few showers and storms are expected on Sunday, during the morning
into mid afternoon. By late Tuesday, warmer and much more humid air
will quickly build back into the region, with chances for storms
returning Tuesday night through Wednesday. Drier and cooler
conditions will then return for the last part of the workweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Heat wave continues across the area today. Mid and upper level ridge
stretches from the Southern Plains across the Ohio Valley into the
Mid Atlantic. Scattered to broken cumulus clouds have developed with
the afternoon heating. This ridge will inhibit the development of
widespread convection, although a renegade shower or storm can not
be ruled out into early evening - mainly east of I-71.

Cumulus clouds will dissipate and any isold showers/storms with the
loss of heating this evening with some mid/high level clouds
overspreading the area later tonight.

Progressive mid level shortwave to track thru the Great Lakes
overnight and Sunday. Pre-frontal showers and embedded thunder from
a mid deck will be possible toward sunrise across the northwest.
This pcpn activity should be in a weakening trend as it moves across
the area.

The increase in clouds, moisture and southwest winds staying up will
translate to a very warm night. Lows only dip into the mid 70s for
many areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Progressive mid level shortwave to track thru the Great Lakes
Sunday. This will drive a surface cold front thru the area
Sunday afternoon. Pre-frontal showers and embedded thunder in a
weakening trends will be possible Sunday morning.

An increased threat for thunderstorms will develop during the
late morning into the afternoon with the approach of the cold
front. Model solutions continue to trend faster with this front.
Moderate instability develops ahead of the front. Shear looks
to be unidirectional with bulk shear of 20-25 kts. A few of the
stronger storms could produce strong to damaging winds with
DCAPE values forecast to be 1000-1200 J/KG. This potential for
severe weather will generally be along and east of I-71.

Storm chances diminish from northwest to southeast late in the
day as drier air filters in from the northwest with the passage
of the front.

High temperatures Sunday will be tricky given the frontal
passage. Forecast highs to range from the mid 80s northwest to
near 90 southeast.

Northwest flow develops Sunday night with high pressure nosing
into the area offering cooler and drier conditions. Low
temperatures generally in the lower and middle 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure and dry air are forecast for Monday into Tuesday. The
threat for showers begins late Tuesday ahead of a cold front.
Carrying likely to categorical pops for showers and thunderstorms
Wednesday with frontal passage. High pressure settling over the
Great Lakes will provide dry weather Thursday and Friday. The next
front may bring a few more showers on Saturday.

Temperatures fluctuating in relation to frontal position will begin
with highs in the mid and upper 80s on Monday, rising back into the
90s Tuesday under a surge of warm advection ahead of the first cold
front. Readings slip a few degrees to around 90 on Wednesday thanks
to cloud and precip along the front. Highs fall back to the 80s
Thursday in cold advection behind the front, before rising back into
the 90s Friday and Saturday in another round of warm advection ahead
of the second cold front.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Any cumulus will dissipate with the loss of daytime heating
shortly after 00Z. Expect some high clouds for the rest of the
evening, with the potential for an increase in clover cover
late tonight/early Sunday morning as leftover upstream
convection works east into the Ohio Valley. Cloud bases likely
lower later at night as well, but remain above 5k ft. Due to
uncertainty on how much convection is left, have continued VCSH
for now, but may have to include SHRA especially for
Dayton/Cincinnati terminals Sunday morning if confidence
increases in weakening convection holding together this far
east. Eventually, with daytime heating and a cold front
approaching, additional convection will refire by afternoon.
VCTS is included at all TAF sites for now. Based on timing,
KCMH/KLCK may have the best opportunity for thunderstorms mainly
17z-22z. Outside of any thunderstorms, southwest winds Sunday
may gust as high as 25 kt, then winds will shift to
west/northwest behind the front.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible on Sunday afternoon and late
Tuesday through Wednesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ026-034-035-
     042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for KYZ089>100.
IN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for INZ050-058-059-
     066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...Coniglio
AVIATION...BPP