Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
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803 FXUS64 KJAN 221718 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 1218 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 ...New AVIATION... .MESOSCALE UPDATE... Issued at 936 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 No changes have been made to the forecast for this morning. Once again, strong high pressure ridging (both at the sfc and aloft) will allow for hot and dry weather conditions through the afternoon. The drier airmass associated the sfc high will continue to suppress any moisture build up across our forecast area. Current GOES 16 visible satellite imagery show some high cirrus clouds in southeast Arkansas tracking southward towards the Delta. The combination of mostly clear skies and daytime heating will help afternoon highs peak into the mid to upper 90s areawide. /CR/ && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 326 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Today and Tonight...Strong high pressure, both at the surface and aloft, will remain in control of the weather across the region through tonight. Winds through the course of the day will gradually become southerly at around 5 mph. With quiet weather expected, highs this afternoon will climb into the mid and upper 90s, with afternoon heat index values around 100 expected. Then for tonight, mostly clear skies will exist as lows fall into the low and middle 70s. /19/ Sunday and Monday: Though the area will remain on the eastern periphery of strong mid/upper ridging, low level flow will become more southerly, with increasing low level moisture beginning Sunday. Daytime mixing is expected to decrease day by day, with dewpoints remaining in the 70s through the day in more locations. Combined with temps in the upper 90s to near 100, this will yield heat indices pushing into the triple digits areawide and approaching 105F- 110F initially west of I-55/US 49 on Sunday then over most of the area by Monday. With increasing concern for heat stress, we will continue to highlight dangerous heat in the HWO graphics, and an advisory may eventually be needed. As deep layer moisture increases and a shortwave moves across the Midsouth dragging a weak stalling front just north of the area by Monday, rain chances will begin to increase early next week. Only isolated activity is expected Sunday, but increased coverage is possible Monday, especially east of I-55 along a ribbon of deeper moisture and nearer to the weak front. Tuesday through Friday: The ridge will begin to retrograde, with increasing troughing over the Atlantic states, placing our region in more active NW upper flow. Meanwhile moisture will continue to increase throughout the column, and combined with sufficient forcing and plentiful instability, rain chances continue to trend upward Tuesday into Wednesday. With some influence from the ridge persisting as you go farther west, the eastern half of the area will be favored for higher PoPs these days. Unfortunately, the promise of a front bringing brief relief from the humidity for the end of next week is beginning to dwindle. Recent runs now stall this feature across the northern part of the area or north of us entirely, keeping a rather moist airmass in place across the majority of the region through at least the end of the week. Nevertheless, the mid/upper ridge does show signs of building again toward the end of the week, extending into the Midsouth and North MS. This would keep better rain chances for Thursday and Friday across mainly the southern portion of the area. Elevated heat stress concerns will continue into Tuesday, before greater prevalence of clouds and rain are more likely to disrupt heating on Wednesday into Thursday. However, heat indices look to trend back upward toward the end of the forecast period. /DL/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1218 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Aside from a few high cirrus clouds, quiet conditions will occur through the entire TAF period with VFR ceilings prevailing. /CR/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 73 96 76 96 / 0 10 0 30 Meridian 72 98 76 97 / 0 10 10 30 Vicksburg 74 96 77 97 / 0 0 0 10 Hattiesburg 72 98 76 97 / 0 20 0 30 Natchez 72 95 75 96 / 0 10 0 10 Greenville 75 98 78 98 / 0 0 10 10 Greenwood 73 97 77 97 / 0 0 10 20 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ 19/DL/CR