Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
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678 FXUS64 KJAN 241816 AAA AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 116 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 ...New AVIATION... .MESOSCALE UPDATE... Issued at 1015 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Local radars had a band of light showers just south of Interstate 20 and east of Interstate 55 at mid morning. This band of showers was along a very weak cold front that will continue to sag south through the southern portions of our CWA this afternoon. A surface high to the northeast will help push the cold front south. This cold front and surface high will only result in slightly drier air over the northeast. Otherwise, the afternoon temperatures in the mid to upper 90s will combine with the high humidity to result in high heat index values and the Heat Advisory will remain in effect this afternoon. /22/ && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 316 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Today and Tonight...High pressure aloft wedged into the region from the west, has weakened enough over the forecast area to allow a weak frontal boundary to sink south into the CWA. This boundary will primarily be responsible for bringing an increase in cloud cover to the area today. However, it`ll also bring with it a chance for isolated to scattered showers, and isolated thunderstorms across mainly central and southern portions of the CWA through this afternoon as it drops further south through the forecast area. Winds will become northerly around 5 mph in the wake of the boundary. Unfortunately for us, no change in airmass will exist across the area. The boundary will eventually stall across southern portions of the CWA tonight, where it`ll gradually washout. Any convection that`s ongoing during the afternoon will begin to wane during the late afternoon and early evening hours as daytime heating is lost. Mostly clear skies will exist tonight, with lows only following into the 70s. Once again, the main concern during the period will be the increased heat stress across the region this afternoon. Dew points will range from the upper 60s to middle 70s this afternoon. This, coupled with high temperatures ranging from the mid 90s to around 100, will generally yield afternoon heat index values between 105-110 across nearly the entire forecast area. As a result, the "Heat Advisory" has been expanded to cover the entire forecast area through 8 PM this evening. /19/ Tuesday...Oppressive heat will continue into Tuesday as mid level ridging hangs on just enough to limit convective coverage to mainly isolated diurnal activity for one more day. Northeast/east MS will fair best in terms of humidity due to the nearby presence of a weak front that will allow a somewhat drier airmass to tease the area. Unfortunately, this may help temps to soar to around 100 in those areas. Highest heat indices will be along and west of I-55, where dewpoints are more likely to remain in the mid 70s through the day. Accordingly, we have extended the Heat Advisory to include the daytime Tuesday. Even where dewpoints may be more marginal from Meridian up to the Golden Triangle area, temps will be high enough that it will still be very possible to reach advisory thresholds. Wednesday and Thursday...With the upper ridge temporarily retreating, NW flow aloft will bring a shortwave across the area Wednesday. Given the moist airmass in place ahead of this feature, precip coverage is expected to be greater. This is also a window when there would be some potential for an upstream convective complex to move into the area, but it`s a bit too early to clearly anticipate these mesoscale details. Lingering shortwave troughing along the Gulf Coast will provide an opportunity for higher rain chances again on Thursday, but focused more over the southern half of the area. Meanwhile, upper ridging will begin to build again into the northern half of the area. Overall, clouds and rain will be more likely to limit daytime temperatures Wednesday and Thursday than on previous days, but in any areas where clouds/rain are limited, heat stress may continue to be an issue with heat indices still potentially reaching dangerous thresholds. Friday through Sunday: The upper ridge will continue to build over the area, with temperatures trending back upward. However, the seasonably moist airmass will remain, fostering mainly diurnal convection each day. Greatest coverage will be focused over the eastern half of our area, which will be farthest from the middle of the ridge. Heat stress concerns will continue to be in the picture outside of brief relief from any rain. /DL/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 112 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Isolated -SHRA wl come in vcty of MEI and the southern TAF sites until after 01Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions and a light wind wl prevail through the TAF period. /22/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 96 75 97 77 / 20 0 20 10 Meridian 98 73 100 74 / 20 0 20 10 Vicksburg 96 76 97 77 / 10 0 20 10 Hattiesburg 96 76 98 76 / 40 20 40 10 Natchez 94 74 95 75 / 20 10 30 10 Greenville 99 77 100 77 / 0 0 10 20 Greenwood 98 76 100 77 / 10 10 20 20 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ018-019-025>066- 072>074. Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for MSZ018-019- 025>066-072>074. LA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ007>009-015-016- 023>026. Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for LAZ007>009-015- 016-023>026. AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ074-075. Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ074-075. && $$ 19/DL/22