Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
801 FXUS62 KKEY 281906 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 306 PM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 305 PM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024 A stellar Friday is underway across the Florida Keys this afternoon. GOES-16 visible satellite imagery shows that there`s barely a cloud in the sky over the island chain with a distinct lack of precipitable echoes found by KBYX radar in our CWA. However, nearby conditions are not as quiet as they were this morning with a convective blow up from Cuba looming to our south. Along the Reef, light to gentle east to southeasterly breezes have reestablished themselves after a period of variability this morning and with the gradual northerly drift of the ridge axis over Central Florida. A few spots along the Keys have indeed broken 90 degrees today with everywhere else along the chain at least making it well into the upper 80s. The short term forecast looks to still be on track. Despite the line of storms bubbling off the northwestern Cuban coast, tonight`s PoPs will remain at a slight chance. This is due to a somewhat unfavorable chaotic mid level wind profile and the fact that ongoing convection is progged to move northwest mostly missing the island chain if was somehow able to sustain itself for that long. Tonight and through tomorrow, breezes will back to the east and freshen slightly as the ridge axis over Mainland Florida drifts north. CIMSS Layer PW notes plenty of moisture upstream over the Bahamas that will start advect over with this wind shift. As a result, PoPs just above climo will return tomorrow and tomorrow night. Conditions will be wetter Sunday as a mid-layer inverted trough amplifies off the east coast of Florida before pushing west. Its location will result in an influx of tropical moisture as well as favorable synoptic conditions (in theory) supporting convective development in our CWA. While model soundings for this event are very moist, discontinuous and chaotic wind profiles in the mid- layers bring into question how much of developing convection will be able to grow tall enough to produce lightning. Opted to keep high end chance PoPs with a slight chance of thunder to convey this uncertainty. In the extended portion of the forecast, easterly breezes freshen even more as the gradient tightens due to a developing tropical disturbance (AL95) passing through the Caribbean. As this is right on the edge of our forecast period, uncertainty remains quite high and it is recommended to keep up with trusted sources, like hurricanes.gov, and keep up with the latest forecast for more information. && .MARINE... Issued at 305 PM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories currently in effect for the coastal waters of the Florida Keys. From synopsis, a low level ridge axis lifting north over the Florida Peninsula will keep light to gentle breezes to the east through Saturday. Breezes will freshen and veer Saturday evening resulting in gentle to moderate east to southeast breezes through Wednesday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 305 PM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024 VFR will prevail at the EYW and MTH terminals through the evening. Afternoon thunderstorms are spreading north from western Cuba. The stable and relatively dry boundary layer near the Keys will not be conducive for maintenance of these storms as they move north. If they do survive the Straits, then arrival time for mainly EYW would be around 23Z. && .CLIMATE... On this day in 1909, the daily record rainfall of 3.87" was recorded in Key West. Rainfall records date back to 1871. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 83 90 82 89 / 20 30 40 50 Marathon 83 90 82 89 / 20 40 40 50 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...JAM Aviation/Nowcasts....CLR Data Acquisition.....JAM Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest