328
FXUS61 KLWX 150140
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
940 PM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will approach from the northwest over the next
couple of days before stalling nearby by mid-week. This boundary
returns northward as a warm front on Wednesday. Another cold
front moves through the region late Friday before settling in
the vicinity during the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Heavy showers and thunderstorms continue pushing through
southern Maryland this evening, and should be out of the area
east of the Chesapeake Bay by 11 PM. Some lingering light rain
on the backside of earlier storms continues along/east of US-15
through around midnight. Elsewhere, convection has mostly
dissipated with mostly dry conditions across the area tonight.

Flood warnings continue for parts of the DC and Baltimore metro
areas due to lingering high water that is closing several
roadways. Do not drive through flooded roadways, find an
alternate route to your destination.

A mild/humid night ahead with low temperatures in the upper 60s
to mid 70s (low/mid 60s for the mountains). Calm winds and
saturated low- levels will enhance the potential for overnight
patchy fog, some becoming locally dense in nature.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
While a couple of days ago this frontal system was expected to
cross through tonight, that will certainly not be happening. The
current model guidance and forecast products support this
boundary nearing the Mason-Dixon Line by Tuesday afternoon.
However, until all of today`s convection clears the area
tonight, it remains to be seen where this boundary truly
settles. Unless this system completely clears the region, a
seasonably warm and humid air mass should be in play for
Tuesday. The larger difference between the two days is more
limited upper forcing/support. Subtle height rises are expected
along with less identifiable mesoscale perturbations.

While shower/thunderstorm chances are still in the 50 to 70
percent range, these should be more instability driven and be
more pulse-like in nature. Cell motions may be on the slower
side again, which coupled with previous days of heavy rainfall,
will maintain a non-zero flash flood threat over the area. A
Slight Risk for excessive rainfall has been maintained over
pretty much all locations outside of Garrett and St. Mary`s
counties. Outside of another round of potentially active
weather, Tuesday`s highs are forecast to rise into the mid/upper
80s, with heat indices into the mid 90s. For the overnight,
very little change is expected from previous nights with another
round of patchy fog possible.

The boundary which lingers nearby into Wednesday is expected to
lift northward as a warm front. A number of models show a slew
of convective perturbations in the quasi-zonal flow. These
should be an impetus to a more active convective day. However,
given these are tied to storm-scale processes, there is plenty
of uncertainty at this juncture. The chances for showers and
thunderstorms rise to 60 to 80 percent. Forecast high
temperatures push into the upper 80s to low 90s, which is
accompanied by heat indices approaching the century mark. Being
deeper into the tropical air mass, conditions will be milder
overnight with lows in the low/mid 70s (closer to the upper 70s
inside D.C. and Baltimore).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A fairly persistent pattern is expected on the synoptic scale
throughout the long term period. Flow aloft will generally be out of
the west across northern portions of the CONUS/southern Canada
through the period, with various weak disturbance embedded within
zonal flow passing by to our north. We`ll remain within a very warm
and humid airmass through at least Friday. Thereafter, there`s some
uncertainty regarding whether or not we will get a true cold frontal
passage that will drop temperatures and dewpoints.

Daily showers and thunderstorms are expected during the
afternoon/evening hours as various disturbances pass off to our
north. Temperatures will run near to slightly above normal with
highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s, and lows in the upper 60s to mid
70s. Thunderstorms may be capable of producing isolated instances of
flash flooding or damaging winds any of these days. The day that
currently stands out the most from a synoptic standpoint will be
Friday, when a cold front will approach the area from the north and
west.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions have returned to all terminals this evening. Will
watch for patchy fog possible at nearly all TAF sites tonight.
IFR conditions are being forecast at KCHO.

The following couple of days also present a risk of convection,
particularly on Wednesday afternoon/evening. It does appear the
frontal system will not clear the region and actually retreat
northward as a warm front on Wednesday. Until the region gets
out of this pattern, daily convective chances will support a
potential for afternoon/evening restrictions.

Prevailing VFR conditions are expected on both Thursday and
Friday. Winds will be out of the southwest on Thursday, and then
west on Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Strong thunderstorms continue moving across southern Maryland
and the adjacent local waters through late this evening, then
dry conditions overnight. Generally light winds continue
through tonight.

Tuesday and Wednesday also carry a risk of convection, with the
latter likely being the more active of the two days. Thus,
hazardous boating conditions are possible at times, particularly
during the afternoon/evening periods. As a warm front lifts
northward on Wednesday, an uptick in southerly winds are
expected, particularly for the evening to overnight hours.
Small Craft Advisories may be needed for the southern most
waters as gusts push to near 20 knots.

Sub-SCA level winds are expected over the waters on both Thursday
and Friday. Winds will generally be out of the southwest on Thursday
and west on Friday. SMWs may potentially be needed as a result of
thunderstorms either afternoon or evening.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A prolonged period of southeasterly winds will lead to elevated
tidal anomalies through midweek. This carries most of the tidal
locations into Action stage, particularly during the higher of
the two astronomical high tide cycles. Sensitive locations, such
as Annapolis, are forecast to stay just below Minor stage
during the high tide cycles this morning.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for MDZ017-018.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BRO
NEAR TERM...KRR/BRO
SHORT TERM...BRO
LONG TERM...KJP
AVIATION...KRR/BRO/KJP
MARINE...KRR/BRO/KJP
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LWX