087
FXUS64 KLZK 220733
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
233 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday Night)
Issued at 232 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Regional composite reflectivity depicted ongoing precip acrs Cntrl
OK, asctd w/ a cdfrnt advancing thru the Cntrl Plains, and a potent
outflow bndry moving thru Ern OK, approaching N/Wrn AR.

Another seasonably warm day is on deck as we ring in the Fall
Equinox. Aloft, broad H500 ridging that has been in place acrs the
Srn US should begin to weaken as height falls and asctd troughing
develop over the Cont Divide, and a shortwave perturbation maneuvers
thru the mean troughing flow. At the sfc, a synoptic cdfrnt is
progged to be moving Swrd thru the Plains thru the day, and
approaching N/Wrn to Nrn AR by later this aftn/evng. Area temps
ahead of this frnt are set to top out in the mid 90s acrs Cntrl to
Srn AR, while Nrn AR should see temps in the upper 80s to low 90s,
under incrsg cloud cover fm the approaching frnt, and ongoing precip
activity.

The aforementioned outflow bndry moving acrs N/Ern OK may serve as a
focal point for additional isoltd convective development later this
mrng to aftn acrs Wrn to N/Wrn and Nrn AR. However, stronger forcing
wl accompany the approaching cdfrnt, w/ incrsg covg of
showers/storms expected later this evng, b/w 21-00Z. Much like the
past few aftns, a modest environment wl be in place along the
advancing frnt, w/ MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg and rather low, but
still conducive bulk shear of 20 to 30 kts supporting the threat for
some isolated severe weather, including instances of strong
to damaging wind gusts and perhaps some hail.

The cdfrnt should stall out over the N/Wrn half of the FA Sun night
into Mon, and wl cont to drive sctd covg of showers and storms thru
the day Mon. Areas of N/Wrn AR can expect generally cooler temps Mon
aftn in the wake of this frnt, w/ readings in the low to mid 70s.
Along and to the S/E of this frnt, temps wl still be able to climb
into the low 90s on Mon aftn, and possibly slightly above blended
fcst guidance w/ some compressional heating along the bndry.

Additional sctd convective development wl be possible in a favorable
environment Mon aftn, as a more potent upper shortwave/vorticity max
ejects thru mean troughing flow. Slightly higher vertical shear and
conducive buoyancy wl support another round of aftn to late evng
convective development, in which damaging wind gusts and large hail
remain as the primary hazards, primarily acrs Cntrl to Ern AR thru
Mon night.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 232 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

The majority of the long-term forecast period will consist of
unsettled weather overall offering several opportunities across the
CWA and state of Arkansas for showers and thunderstorms.

The forecast period will begin with a cold front that will be
completing the journey across Arkansas, lingering across
southeastern Arkansas to just south and east of the state on
Tuesday.

Expect shower and thunderstorm activity to be possible across the
southern and eastern portions of Arkansas as the cold front will be
placed in close enough proximity to provide increased POP chances
across southern and eastern parts of the state.

Into the middle and thru the end of the week, an upper lvl trof will
be nearing the Deep South region of the CONUS in conjunction with a
sfc stationary front that will be associated with the anticipated
tropical system that models have now progged to develop across the
Gulf of Mexico. The combination of the stationary boundary and
attendant sfc trof that will be present across the region will lead
to increased POP chances across the CWA in the form of showers and
thunderstorms.

From the end of the week into next weekend, the boundary, now
lifting as a warm front, along with the remnants of the forecast
tropical system which is expected to remain well east of the CWA
across the Southeastern region of the CONUS will support a continued
influx of moisture into the CWA along with a sfc trof in the region
that will aid in keeping POPs in the forecast in the form of
isolated showers and thunderstorms.

Temperatures over the long-term forecast period are expected to
lower to values that will be near normal with respect to both high
and low low temperatures compared to climatological normals for this
time of the year thanks to the cooler airmass behind the FROPA and
expected sfc trof leading to sfc convergence that will promote lift
equating to increased cloud cover and POP chances over much of the
week into next weekend.

The unsettled pattern will not equate to any one day being a
complete washout, but providing respectable POP chances over the
long-term forecast period which could amount to respectable QPF
values that may help alleviate drought conditions in parts of
Arkansas.


&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 112 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Some additional convection looks to redevelop for Sun late
morning into the afternoon hrs...mainly across NRN AR. Chances
will then drop SE Sun night into Mon near the end of this TAF PD.
Winds should remain less than 10 kts sustained, w/ VFR condns
prevailing otherwise thru the day Sun.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     91  70  83  65 /  10  20  60  60
Camden AR         94  70  91  68 /   0   0  20  20
Harrison AR       89  65  73  58 /  40  60  90  40
Hot Springs AR    94  72  88  65 /   0  10  50  30
Little Rock   AR  95  74  90  68 /   0  10  30  40
Monticello AR     94  72  92  71 /   0   0  10  20
Mount Ida AR      93  69  86  61 /   0  10  60  20
Mountain Home AR  90  67  76  61 /  40  60  80  50
Newport AR        91  70  85  66 /  10  10  40  70
Pine Bluff AR     94  72  90  69 /   0   0  20  30
Russellville AR   94  71  83  63 /  10  20  70  30
Searcy AR         94  70  87  66 /  10  10  40  60
Stuttgart AR      93  72  90  69 /   0   0  20  50

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...72
LONG TERM....74
AVIATION...72