046
ACUS11 KWNS 262054
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262053
COZ000-WYZ000-262300-

Mesoscale Discussion 1432
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0353 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Areas affected...Portions of Northern Colorado into Southeast
Wyoming

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 262053Z - 262300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms have begun developing west of Cheyenne, WY,
with additional development possible near the Denver metro where
visible satellite shows additional cumulus development. These
thunderstorms will be capable of damaging winds and hail, but
overall uncertainty in storm organization, coverage, and timing
means convective trends will continue to be monitored for weather
watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm development has increased over Cheyenne
and is anticipated to continue eastward into relatively meager
buoyancy of 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE, and 40-45 kts of deep layer shear.
Further south, developing cumulus was observed west of Denver over
the Rockies, with convective coverage expected to increase this
evening ahead of a subtle shortwave trough moving around the north
side of the upper level high.

RAP proximity soundings and SPC mesoanalysis show the environment is
characterized by MLLCL heights > 2500m due to a relatively hot, dry
boundary layer, indicating the primary threat will be for damaging
straight-line winds from thunderstorm outflow. Given the strength of
the vertical shear, severe hail is also possible with more organized
storms.

However, there is considerable uncertainty in the overall timing,
coverage, and organization of severe convection this evening, and
convective trends will continue to be monitored for later weather
watch issuance.

..Halbert/Weinman/Hart.. 06/26/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   42750435 42260416 40070405 39620430 39460485 39490541
            39720580 40660571 40810568 42140575 42570576 42710524
            42750435