Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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Issued by NWS
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885 ACUS11 KWNS 291947 SWOMCD SPC MCD 291947 TXZ000-292145- Mesoscale Discussion 1067 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Areas affected...southeast TX Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 291947Z - 292145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated strong thunderstorms are possible through early evening. Locally gusty winds of 45-60 mph and hail to near 1 inch diameter are possible with these storms. DISCUSSION...Visible satellite shows a deepening cumulus field across southeast Texas this afternoon, and convective initiation appears close in convection near Houston. Strong heating and surface dewpoints in the 70s F, in addition to near 7 C/km midlevel lapse rates, are contributing to MLCAPE up to 2500 J/kg. Southeasterly low-level flow becoming west/northwesterly in the mid/upper levels is resulting in effective shear values near 30 kt. Furthermore, forecast soundings show elongated/straight hodographs. This will support at least transient supercells and semi-organized clusters capable of near 1 inch diameter hail. A somewhat dry EML and PW values around 1.75-2 inches also will support strong gusts. Convection is expected to remain somewhat isolated and severe potential overall appears limited, and a watch is not currently expected. ..Leitman/Guyer.. 05/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...CRP...EWX... LAT...LON 31009582 31039513 30579457 30029435 29419444 29079454 28679497 28329572 28249632 28459689 28979696 31009582