Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
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649 FXUS64 KMEG 240455 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1155 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 817 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Skies are partly cloudy across the Mid-South this evening with temperatures in the mid 80s to around 90 degrees. Heat index values have dropped below 105 so have cancelled the Heat Advisory for tonight. A Heat Advisory is in effect for the western half of the Mid-South from 11 AM until 9 PM on Monday. A few isolated showers and thunderstorms are over portions of northwest Tennessee and northeast Mississippi. Some additional showers or thunderstorms may develop tonight. Have updated forecast to remove Heat Advisory for tonight. If all the activity dies out later this evening, may need to remove PoPs for the remainder of tonight. ARS && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 228 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 A series of cold fronts will move through the Mid-South over the next seven days. The fronts will bring chances for showers and thunderstorms and brief respites from the heat and humidity. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Saturday) Issued at 228 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 A weak cold front has pushed into the Missouri Bootheel and Northeast Arkansas this afternoon. A few showers have developed ahead of the front. Expect additional development of showers and thunderstorms to occur for the remainder of the afternoon into the evening as the front interacts with peak heating. Can`t rule out an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm occurring late this afternoon into the evening hours. The front will push south of the CWA overnight. Drier air will begin to filter into much of West Tennessee and Northeast Mississippi as surface high pressure builds over the Ohio Valley. Temperatures will remain warm on Monday but with the lower humidity heat index values will not reach advisory conditions. However, this won`t be the case across Eastern Arkansas, Memphis, and Northwest Mississippi stretching southeastward to Monroe County. The location of the washed out front just to the southwest will keep dewpoints higher in this region. The combination of high temperatures in the upper 90s and the higher humidity will once again produce heat indices in the 105-110 degrees Monday afternoon into Monday evening. A new heat advisory has been issued. By Tuesday, the surface high will shift east allowing for southwesterly flow to occur across the entire Mid-South. This will spread the higher dewpoints back across the entire region. With highs expected once again in the upper 90s to possibly 100 degrees, a heat advisory will likely need to be issued for the entire area. Relief will come late Tuesday Night into Wednesday as a cold front moves southward from the Mid-West. A few models are show a dying MCS moving into Northeast Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, and Northwest Tennessee during the morning hours. Redevelopment of thunderstorms would likely occur by the afternoon hours on Wednesday in the vicinity of old outflow boundaries and the front. Regardless, the temperature forecast will be tricky due to convection and cloud cover. Would not be shocked if heat advisories would still be needed for parts of North Mississippi on Wednesday. Drier air will then once again filter into the region Wednesday Night into Thursday as surface high pressure builds over the Ohio Valley. Expect lower humidity with warm days and cool nights. The heat and humidity will return again for the end of the week into next weekend as the surface high moves east on Friday. Another cold front will move into the region on Saturday. This front may have the potential to stall out due to the upper ridge building across Central Mississippi. Expect chances for showers and thunderstorms to occur across the period. KRM && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1143 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 A few lingering SHRAs will continue over the next hour or so before dissipating, but should not affect any TAF sites. A couple of wind shifts will occur through the period behind a backdoor quasi-stationary front. AC3 && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 9 PM CDT Monday for ARZ009-018-026- 027-035-036-048-049-058. MO...None. MS...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 9 PM CDT Monday for MSZ001-007-008- 010>013-020>024. TN...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 9 PM CDT Monday for TNZ088. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...KRM AVIATION...AC3