445
FXUS62 KMHX 261900
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
300 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains offshore tonight, with a cold front
crossing into the region Thursday. High pressure then builds in
behind this feature from the north late week and into the
weekend with another front approaching late Sunday through
Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 3 PM Wed...Moisture will begin streaming into eastern
NC late tonight ahead of an approaching weak cold front. Bulk of
the region should be dry, but may see some renegade showers or a
storm lingering acrs the coastal plain counties early. Then, a
dying line of showers/strorms may make a run for the nrn tier of
the FA late tonight. Have retained a 20% chc for showers here,
but most of this should dissipate before making it to ENC.
Otherwise expect partly cloudy skies and warm temps. Could see
areas of low stratus clouds late. Low level mixing should be
sufficient to preclude fog as the gradient increases ahead of
the approaching front.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 PM Wed...Another hot and humid day on tap, as area will
be just ahead of approaching cold front. This front and
lingering OB that resides across ENC from remnant overnight
convection, combined with developing sea breeze tomorrow
afternoon, should spark numerous thunderstorms after 18Z. Have
retained 60-70% pops for this. Area remains in marginal risk for
severe. Think the storm mode will be primarily multi cellular,
with biggest risk some large hail and strong downburst winds.
Before the convection, heat indices will be high again, and
possibly reach the 105 degree mark or even higher for several
hours. Will issue heat adv for most of ENC, excluding Downeast
Carteret and the nrn coastal plain counties. The onset of storms
will end the high heat/humidity by mid/late afternoon. Storms
will quickly move off the coast in the evening, with chances for
rain ending after around midnight, and quiet conditions in its
wake. Lows will be typical, in the low 70s interior to mid 70s
coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 330 AM Wed...Heat and humidity continue through this
weekend with high pressure ridging into the area. Heat related
impacts will be a threat most afternoons through Sunday, with
the most oppressive heat potential both Saturday and Sunday.
A cold front will bring likely chances for rain and
thunderstorms Thursday and Thursday night. Then more scattered
diurnal activity is expected Friday through Sunday, with better
chances arriving late Sunday and into Monday as another front
moves in.

Friday...Front crosses the area and moves offshore Friday
morning. Behind this front a marginally cooler/drier airmass
will try to build in but will not be very successful, and humid
conditions will persist Friday. Scattered shower and
thunderstorm chances will be possible Friday afternoon with the
highest chances over the coastal plain.

Slightly cooler temperatures expected Friday behind the front,
but with humidity sticking around, heat indices will again top
100 degrees and could be as high as 105 degrees.

Saturday through Tuesday...Heat and humidity will increase again
this weekend with offshore ridging restrengthening. There will
be the potential for excessive heat Saturday and Sunday as high
temps soar into the mid to upper 90s inland and lower 90s along
the coast, which will lead to heat indices reaching 105 to 110
degrees both days.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue Saturday and
Sunday, with increasing rain chances coming late Sunday and into
Monday as another cold front moves through the region. Behind
this front early next week the heat and humidity looks to break
finally with near normal conditions expected.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Thu/...
As of 2 PM Wed...With high pressure in control, we are looking
at mainly a VFR TAF again through tonight. Fog chances tonight
will be minimal due to sufficient low level mixing. Southerly
winds will gust to 15-20 kt late this afternoon into this
evening ahead of an approaching weak cold front. Some sct/bkn
MVFR stratus is possible tonight, and will hint at this with a
sct mention. After 18Z Thu, thunderstorms will become likely,
with reduction in vsby in heavy rain, along with strong erratic
gusty winds.

LONG TERM /Thursday night through Sunday/...
As of 330 AM Wed...Convective activity will then become more
scattered and daytime focused Friday and Saturday, with some
periods of sub-VFR conditions possible. Another cold front will
arrive late Sunday and bring an increased chance of sub-VFR
conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Thu/...
As of 3 PM Wed...Have issued short duration SCA for northern
sounds/rivers/coastal waters north of Hatteras, as tightened
gradient in sswrly flow will bring 25-28 kt gusts, esp for
favored areas where funneling occurs (Croatan Sound/Oregon
Inlet/Alligator River) in this wind regime in the summer. Winds
ramp up after 6 pm and decrease back below SCA after 2 am.

Otherwise, winds will be 10-20 kt elsewhere with seas of 2-4 ft
for the coastal waters tonight. Winds dec on Thu to 5-15 kt with
front nearby. Strong thunderstorms develop in the afternoon into
early evening, with strong thunderstorm winds above 34 kt and
hail possible.

LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 330 AM Wed...Decent boating conditions expected through
the weekend with high pressure over the area aside from
Thursday when a cold front moves through.

Winds will be SW 5-15 kts ahead of the front Thursday morning.
As the front crosses the waters later Thursday winds will likely
become variable as convective outflow boundaries crisscross the
area. Eventually light N/NE will develop Thursday night behind
the front, and then become easterly at 5-10 kts Friday. Winds
will then turn to the SE at 10-15 kts Saturday, and will
increase to SSW 10-20 kts Sunday ahead of another front. Seas
will be mostly 2-4 ft this week.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 5 PM EDT Thursday for NCZ045>047-
     080-081-090>092-094-193>195-198-199.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT
 Thursday for AMZ131-135-150-152-230-231.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...SGK/RJ
AVIATION...TL/SGK
MARINE...TL/SGK