Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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131 FXUS62 KMLB 071930 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 330 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 327 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024 Key Messages: -Isolated to scattered lightning storms still forecast this afternoon, capable of gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall -Increasing temperatures this weekend with heat index values 102-108+ and a risk for heat exhaustion or heat stroke -Coverage of showers and storms increases next week, timing and rainfall amounts remain less certain This Afternoon-Tonight...As of the early afternoon, initiation of convection has held off across the local area with potent storms producing excessive lightning drifting over the Everglades. Isolated cells have popped up over Marion County and Lake George, with additional activity expected to develop along the sea breeze over the next few hours. Guidance has backed off a bit with overall coverage and intensity of storms this afternoon, but still the focus will reside just west of I-95 towards the coast, where storms producing frequent lightning strikes and gusty winds will be possible from 3-8 PM. The east coast sea breeze has begun its journey inland, with coastal sites now reporting temperatures below 90 degrees. While there is still opportunity for temperatures to rise again, it appears that the best chance for broken high temperature records resides across the interior. Heat index readings have risen above 100F this afternoon (which will only worsen heading into this weekend). With any convection ending around sunset, a few rain cooled areas may feel a bit of heat relief this evening, otherwise low temperatures fall to the mid 70s overnight. Saturday-Sunday...This weekend, a mid level ridge will drift across the Gulf of Mexico, settling in across the FL Peninsula as a surface boundary washes out over northern portions of the state. This will offer slightly lower rain chances north of Orlando, but keeping a 50- 60% chance for the Treasure Coast and Lake Okeechobee vicinity. Convection will be enhanced by the sea and lake breeze boundary interactions, with lightning strikes and gusty winds the main storm threats both Saturday and Sunday afternoons. The main concern this weekend will be the abnormally hot temperatures which will rise well above average values. Highs at the coast will reach 93-95 with interior sites climbing to 96-98, with records at all climate sites at risk. Heat index readings will reach above 106 degrees, upwards of 110-111 north of Lake Okeechobee. Heat Advisories will certainly be needed this weekend, with extreme Heat Risk conditions being introduced on Sunday to metro Orlando. Again, little to no heat relief will be offered overnight with lows in the mid to upper 70s and the potential for a few warm minimum records. Monday-Thursday...(modified) Monday remains hot with temperatures reaching the mid to upper 90s, heat index values spanning the 100s, and the Heat Risk extreme criteria expanding to more areas of east central FL. Rain chances do begin to increase early in the week as tropical moisture begins to lift northward as the mid level ridge begins to break down. 850mb-500mb SW winds increase Tuesday and Wednesday, supporting scattered to numerous showers and lightning storms through the day, perhaps lingering into the nighttime hours. Medium-range solutions still show a bit of spread through mid week, but diverge even more through the extended, as the GFS keeps highest rain totals through Friday closer to central FL while the ECMWF keeps most of the heaviest rain over the Gulf, leaving 1-2" for the local area. Regardless, have kept the 70-80% PoPs in the forecast for Tuesday and beyond, as beneficial rain is expected, its just a matter of where the highest totals will land. Daytime temperatures will largely depend on the presence (or absence) of rainfall and associated cloud cover. For now, the forecast leans toward the NBME and cooler side of guidance, with the ECMWF several degrees warmer. Expect highs in the upper 80s to low 90s through mid week. && .MARINE... Issued at 327 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024 Tonight-Weekend...Outside of lightning storms, boating conditions will remain favorable this weekend with seas of 2 feet and offshore winds becoming southeasterly near 10-15 knots with the sea breeze development each afternoon. Mariners should be cautious of offshore moving showers and thunderstorms during the evening hours, with locally higher seas, gusty winds and lightning strikes all possible. Monday-Tuesday...Generally favorable boating conditions prevail into early next week, although south to southwest winds increase above 15 knots briefly early on Tuesday. Much higher tropical moisture arrives on Tuesday, bringing rain chances of 70-80% from mid to late week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 327 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024 This Weekend...Sensitive fire weather conditions persist due to drought conditions and the potential for new fire starts due to lightning strikes. Minimum relative humidity values fall to the mid 30s to low 40s on Sunday, before moisture increases across the state next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 121 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024 VFR with quiet conditions through around 20Z, before a few storms get going near Orlando/Daytona and down the East Coast terminals through around 01Z. Activity appears to be less numerous compared to yesterday, but enough for TEMPOs. A few gusts to 35 KT possible beneath the strongest storms. Winds will become E at the coast, VRB or light W over the Greater Orlando terminals through early evening. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 74 94 75 96 / 30 20 10 20 MCO 75 97 77 97 / 20 50 20 40 MLB 74 94 75 94 / 30 30 20 40 VRB 73 94 74 95 / 30 30 20 40 LEE 76 97 77 98 / 10 30 10 30 SFB 75 98 75 99 / 20 30 10 30 ORL 76 97 77 98 / 20 40 10 40 FPR 72 94 73 94 / 30 40 20 60 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Schaper AVIATION...Heil