Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
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629 FXUS66 KMTR 210637 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1137 PM PDT Fri Sep 20 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 143 PM PDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Warming trend continues through the weekend into early next week, with moderate HeatRisk possible inland Monday and Tuesday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 838 PM PDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Cloud cover is returning, and it`s coming in low with cloud bases between 200 and 600ft. Fog will be close to follow as conditions continue to cool through the night. The night shift will have to keep an eye on that along with ironing out the details of the early work week warm up in the early morning forecast update. Fun times for them! -Murdock && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday) Issued at 143 PM PDT Fri Sep 20 2024 A warming trend was expected to start today as an upper level low moves off to the east, but you wouldn`t know it from the 24 hour temperature trends, which have not shown much warming from the same time yesterday, and if anything, have ran up to five degrees cooler across the valleys. The extensive stratus deck this morning and the continuing onshore flow may have kept things cooler than what was earlier forecast. Have bumped today`s high temperatures across the inland valleys down to account for this. The current forecast calls for high temperatures today to rise into the upper 70s to the lower 80s across the inland valleys, around the mid 60s to the mid 70s along the Bayshore, and into the upper 50s to mid 60s along the Pacific coast. Some more warming is expected tomorrow with the warmest inland regions scraping into the low 90s. Stratus has retreated back to the coastal regions and the Monterey Bay region, where the clouds are expected to persist through the day before the stratus extends inland this evening and overnight. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 143 PM PDT Fri Sep 20 2024 The fringes of an upper level ridge will impact the state through the weekend into early next week, with the main impact being a warming trend across the region. By the early part of next week, high temperatures should peak into the mid to upper 90s across the inland valleys and the upper 60s to the mid 70s across the Pacific coast. Model ensemble clusters continue to show poor consensus on the upper level pattern towards the rest of the next week. However, CPC outlooks suggest a lean towards temperatures above seasonal averages and precipitation below seasonal averages into the first several days of October. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1137 PM PDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Coastal stratus and fog /LIFR-IFR/ will move inland on onshore winds tonight and Saturday morning. Conditions improving to MVFR-VFR back to the coastline and bays by late morning and early afternoon Saturday. Vicinity of SFO...VFR, then tempo IFR ceiling 10z-14z Saturday with prevailing IFR ceiling until 18z. Onshore wind 5 to 15 knots. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...Stratus and fog /LIFR-IFR/ tonight and Saturday morning, conditions improving to MVFR-VFR by late morning and afternoon. Onshore winds 5 to 15 knots. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Thursday) Issued at 838 PM PDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Northwesterly breezes will be gentle to moderate, with strong gusts over the outer waters. Seas will be moderate, continuing to build and remain rough in the outer waters. Winds decrease and seas abate beginning Tuesday. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...DialH LONG TERM....DialH AVIATION...Canepa MARINE...Sarment Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea