518
FXUS66 KOTX 130436
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
936 PM PDT Wed Jun 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures today will be close to average with highs in the 70s
across most of the Inland Northwest. Thursday will be warm with
light winds. A cold front is expected to bring more breezy
conditions Friday and Saturday. The weekend and early next week
will be cool with the chance of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Wednesday and Thursday: Mostly clear skies across the Inland
Northwest except for some fair-weather cumulus scattered across the
WA/ID/Canadian border. Temperatures are climbing into the mid and
upper 70s as of early this afternoon and winds overall are much
lighter than this time yesterday. Our dry conditions are still in
place (relative humidity values in the low to mid 20 percent range)
but the winds being more calm is a welcome break. The 12z sounding
has half of the precipitable water (0.24 inches) compared to just 24-
hours before (0.58 inches), which is a testament to the drying that
took place yesterday.

Today through Thursday the ridge of high pressure will shift
eastward ahead of another dynamic front headed for the Northwest
region Friday. Temperatures through early Friday will be around 5F
degrees above normal under increasing cloudy skies. When
temperatures are around this range above seasonal normal, we
typically see HeatRisk in the yellow or minor category which means
this would affect people who are extremely sensitive to heat.
Temperatures in the upper 70s to low/mid 80s is quite typical for
mid June across the Inland Northwest. For the week ahead, the
temperatures today and tomorrow look to be the warmest before a
series of weather disturbances bring breezy to windy conditions and
cooler weather with increasing chances for showers. /Dewey

Friday through Wednesday: Friday will be dry and breezy thanks to a
trough offshore the Gulf of Alaska placing us over some stronger mid-
level flow. Relative humidities will be 15 to 25 percent and winds
will be 10-20 mph gusting up to 35 mph. This environment would
support rapid spread of grass fires similar to yesterday. As the
trough moves ashore, the focus then turns to thunderstorms over the
weekend. Models indicate a 10 to 30% chance of thunderstorms
Saturday and Sunday with the best chances in the northern mountains
of Washington and Idaho. Thunderstorms will be capable of small
hail, infrequent lightning, and gusty erratic winds. Wind gusts will
be stronger Saturday gusting up to 40 mph keeping the grass fire
risk around despite cooler temperatures.

Temperatures over the weekend will be well below normal as well with
highs in the 60s and lows in the 30s. Temperatures rebound into the
70s early next week and we remain unsettled. /Butler

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: VFR condtions will prevail. The Pioneer Wildfire near
Lake Chelan will continue to produce smoke but shouldn`t restrict
visibility at any airports.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
High confidence in VFR conditions.

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,
please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        46  79  54  73  49  66 /   0   0   0   0   0  20
Coeur d`Alene  46  78  53  71  47  63 /   0   0   0   0   0  30
Pullman        43  77  51  68  46  62 /   0   0   0   0   0  20
Lewiston       50  87  57  78  53  72 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Colville       41  78  47  75  43  64 /   0   0   0   0   0  70
Sandpoint      43  75  50  70  46  62 /   0   0   0   0   0  60
Kellogg        49  77  56  68  48  59 /   0   0  10   0   0  40
Moses Lake     47  84  52  75  48  70 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      51  81  54  72  50  66 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Omak           47  82  51  78  48  70 /   0   0   0   0   0  30

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$