918
FXUS61 KPBZ 061645
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1245 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather expected through Monday with temperatures rising
well above normal by Monday afternoon.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry conditions and seasonable temperatures today.

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Sfc high pressure building in from the west will support dry
weather today. Scattered cumulus will gradually diminish under
increasing subsidence later this afternoon. Notable decrease in
dewpoint s observed early this afternoon as drier aloft has
mixed to the surface, bringing a little relief to the region
from the multiple day experience of humid conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- High probability for dry weather and slightly above average
  temperature the rest of the weekend.

- Fog potential for Sunday and Monday mornings.

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With sufficient low level moisture, light wind, and breaks in
cloud cover, fog development will be possible both Sunday and
Monday mornings, especially along river valleys. Return flow as
high pressure settles over the Atlantic will support rising
temperature Sunday into Monday as the next upper trough deepens
over the Central Plains. With h500 heights at or above 590dm
and h850 temperatures around 20C by Monday, daytime highs should
be in the 90s with apparent temperatures in the mid 90s. Latest
ensemble guidance shows around a 60% chance of going above 90F
on Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Unsettled weather returns Tuesday through at least mid-week.

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Ensemble consensus continues to favor an Upper Midwest trough
lifting through the Great Lakes region Tuesday into Wednesday
morning along with a weak surface trough. Moist advection ahead
of the wave is likely to foster a warm, humid environment
translating to likely showers and thunderstorms ahead of the
feature. Environmental conditions remain varied, but with
ensemble means showing near 90F highs and 70F dewpoints, there
appears to be at least a low probability for flash flood risk
and potential other severe hazards. Latest CSU machine learning
output supports this.

Variations become post-shortwave passage depending on high
pressure strength to the north as well as potential pattern
impact from the remnants of Hurricane Beryl. The main takeaways
for the long range period is that 500mb mean heights suggest a
continuation of near to above normal temperature and
precipitation chances tied to shortwave movement. Trends are
difficult to pin down at this time, but after the remnants of
Beryl moves east, the cold front will finally pass through
leading to potentially drier weather to end the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High confidence forecast. Scattered cu will wane around sunset
leaving cirrus clouds. There are low probs in the gridded LAMP
and NBM /less than 40%/ of MVFR fog 3-5SM developing south of
I-70. For now, left it out of the forecast given the amount of
mixing of dry air today and using parcel trajectories from this
morning.

VFR weather carries through Sunday. The CU rule gives scattered
high based cu once again, with possible short duration broken
clouds near Lake Erie.

Wind will light less than five knots from the southwest.

.Outlook...
Monday...VFR
Tuesday - Thursday: MVFR weather with scattered showers and
thunderstorms, but most of the time VFR.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...88
NEAR TERM...88
SHORT TERM...Frazier/Shallenberger/88
LONG TERM...Frazier/Shallenberger/88
AVIATION...McMullen