204
FXUS65 KPUB 141000
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
400 AM MDT Fri Jun 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe storms, primarily severe criteria (>58mph) wind gusts,
  expected across the plains today.

- High temperatures decrease to the 80s to low 90s over the
  plains and the 70s over the mountain valleys.

- Warming up and drying out this weekend, with just some
  isolated storms for portions of the region on Saturday.

- Sunday and Monday will be hot again. There could be some
  isolated severe thunderstorms over the far eastern plains on
  Sunday.

- It will begin to cool down with increasing chances of showers
  and thunderstorms by mid-week of next week, followed by a
  gradual warmup.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 400 AM MDT Fri Jun 14 2024

There is a large Slight Risk for severe weather across the majority
of the plains this afternoon, with the main risk being wind gusts
ranging from 60 to 70 mph under the strongest storms. Convection
will begin over western Colorado and slowly develop to the east
throughout the day as the negatively tilted trough propagates across
the state. Expect the storms to develop over the San Juans and the
San Luis Valley around 11am, reaching the Sangre de Cristo Mountains
and the I-25 corridor around 3PM, and exiting the state by around
8PM. Around 500 J/kg of CAPE and 300 J/kg of DCAPE will exist over
the SLV when storms develop, so gusty winds, small hail, and
localized heavier rain is expected under the stronger storms there.
When the storms reach the I-25 corridor they will hit an environment
with around 1500 J/kg and 30 kts of 6km Bulk Shear, but the lower
levels will  be dry, so the main risk will be winds in this set-up.
Under the strongest storms hail stones of up to an inch will be
possible. When the storms reach the far eastern plains, they will
interact with a little more CIN which may inhibit the continuous
intensity of the thunderstorms. The DCAPEs bump up to around 1500
J/kg over Baca and Prowers Counties, so the strongest winds are
expected when storms develop over the far eastern plains. All data
states that cold pool associated with the thunderstorms will be able
to continue to develop storms through the cap.

High temperatures today will be in the 80s to low 90s over the
plains and the 70s over the mountain valleys. Low temperatures will
be in the 50s to 60s over the plains and the 40s over the mountain
valleys.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 400 AM MDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Saturday...

As the upper level low continues to move eastward and away from the
region, some ridging it its wake will transition over the region and
help to warm temperatures and dry things out. There will be some
increasing moisture with southwesterly mid-level flow ahead of a
major shortwave trough upstream that will allow for some isolated
showers and thunderstorms to develop over the mountains during the
afternoon. These will push out over into the plains by later in the
afternoon and through the evening. There is not going to be a lot of
CAPE present, although there will be just enough effective bulk
shear (approaching 40 kts over parts of the I-25 corridor) that
perhaps a storm or two could be on the stronger side. Having said
this, these storms will be relatively high based and likely just
gusty outflow wind producers. There could be some hail possible as
well, although likely not greater than half inch in diameter. The
downsloping surface winds will help to rebound temperatures quite a
bit, and back to being above average for most locations across the
plains. Highs for the plains will top out in the upper 80s to mid
90s, and generally low 80s for the upper Arkansas River Valley and
San Luis Valley. For high country, it will generally be in the 60s
and 70s, with 50s for the highest elevations.

Sunday through Monday...

The ridge is going to expand eastward and the major shortwave trough
over the northwestern CONUS will slowly propagate towards the
region, allowing for increasing southwesterly flow. Over the far
eastern plains, there will be low-level moisture advection with
increasing dewpoints (close to 70F) right along the CO/KS border.
Meanwhile, both CAPE and shear will be increasing dramatically as
this more unstable airmass moves in and as the trough moves in
closer and provides for some more mid-level moisture to move
overhead. The combination of these elements could set up conditions
favorable for the development of a few severe storms by later in the
afternoon and through the evening over the far eastern plains.
Otherwise, it will be mostly dry and hot throughout this period in
the forecast, with temperatures likely exceeding the 100 degree mark
for some locations on the plains and especially within the lower
Arkansas River Valley. In addition to the heat will be strong and
gusty southwesterly winds on Monday, which will result in the
meteorological conditions favorable for rapid growth and spread
of fire, although no fuels are yet critical. However, these
conditions could accelerate the drying process of these fuels.

Tuesday through Thursday...

By this time in the forecast period, the major shortwave trough,
with deepening and a slow propagation eastward will finally begin to
move over the region and begin to cool the region with increasing
chances of showers and thunderstorms by Wednesday.
Deterministic models are all relatively close in agreement with
this feature. Tuesday will still be mostly dry, with only
slightly cooler as the ridge axis shifts further east. An
associated frontal boundary with push through later in the
evening on Tuesday over the region and allow for northeasterly
winds to draw in some cooler temperatures for highs on
Wednesday. It will also help to spark off some additional
convection along the boundary as it progresses southward
throughout the day on Wednesday. By Thursday, the overall
longwave trough will still be positioned to the north of the
region, with residual moisture allowing for more showers and
thunderstorms to be possible for some locations. There will be a
gradual warmup beginning on Thursday and through the end of
next week, yet the high temperatures for Thursday will still be
slightly below the seasonal average for most locations. -Stewey

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 400 AM MDT Fri Jun 14 2024

KALS:

VFR conditions are expected throughout the forecast period, with the
exception of the potential for IFR and MVFR conditions during the
early afternoon as thunderstorms develop over the region. It is
difficult to pinpoint exactly where the thunderstorms will develop
over the San Luis Valley, but the best window for lower CIGs is
between 11am and 3pm.

KCOS and KPUB:

From 3PM to 7PM thunderstorms are expected to be in the vicinity of
both KCOS and KPUB. The further south, the better the chances for
thunderstorm developing. Main risks with these storms will be
visibility issues due to heavy rain, but the higher impact will be
strong and erratic winds associated with thunderstorm outflows. VFR
conditions are expected throughout the forecast with the exception
of if a thunderstorm develops over the forecast sites.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SKELLY
LONG TERM...STEWARD
AVIATION...SKELLY