018
FXUS65 KREV 252043
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
143 PM PDT Tue Jun 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

* Showers and thunderstorms to continue across the region today. Not
  everyone will see rain, but localized areas could be in for some
  downpours. A few showers or storms may linger overnight.

* Moisture is quickly scoured out Wednesday into Thursday with
  increasing southwest winds Wednesday turning northwest Thursday.
  Critical fire conditions Wednesday, with localized critical areas
  Thursday. Expect choppy lakes as well.

* Another breezy weekend is on tap with above normal temperatures and
  dry conditions. Heightened fire concerns and rough lakes waters once
  again.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

* Quite the surge of moisture into the region with the 12z KREV
  sounding showing 0.95" of PWAT, which is above the 95th
  percentile, though not quite at the daily record of 1.1". The
  Grand Ensemble indicated reaching above the 1" mark this
  afternoon, so we`ll see what happens with the 00z sounding. What
  does all this moisture mean? Well, it gets a bit tricky here.
  Usually plentiful moisture and daytime heating would lead to
  widespread shower and thunderstorm development. But, when the
  moisture gets too high (and we`re straddling that mark), we
  cloud over early, as we saw through portions of the eastern
  Sierra and western Nevada, which limits the heating and
  instability potential. Then, we end up with spotty light showers
  instead of intense heavy-raining storms.

* Given the current satellite and radar imagery, along with the HREF
  guidance, the best chances (40%) for deeper convection and
  stronger thunderstorms will be from Mono/Mineral Counties,
  extending northward into Lyon, Churchill, and Pershing Counties
  eastward. Elsewhere, there is still a 10-20% chance for showers
  and thunderstorms through the afternoon and evening. A few cells
  may linger overnight as well. While storms will primarily be wet,
  new fire starts from lightning remain possible.

* This moisture is quickly scoured out Wednesday into Thursday as
  a trough and associated cold front shift through the region.
  Southwest winds will be gusty Wednesday, turning northwesterly
  behind the cold front on Thursday. 40-70% chance for wind gusts
  to exceed 35 mph on Wednesday, with the strongest winds focused
  into the west-central Nevada Basin and Range Thursday. The dry
  air and gusty winds will bring critical fire weather conditions
  to portions of western Nevada and the desert areas of northeast
  CA, east of US-395. If there are any hold over fires from
  thunderstorm activity today, the dry and windy conditions could
  bring rapid growth. Please see the fire weather section below
  for additional details. These winds will also make for rough
  lake waters and Lake Wind Advisories have been issued for
  portions of western Nevada, including Pyramid and Washoe Lakes
  along with Lahontan and Rye Patch Reservoirs.

* Yet another trough forms along the west coast this weekend, with
  continued breezy WSW winds each afternoon leading to heightened fire
  weather concerns and choppy lakes. Looking ahead to the 4th of
  July, signals are pointing towards warming temps with typical
  afternoon breezes and a very low (<5%) chance for storms. -Dawn

&&

.AVIATION...

* Scattered showers and thunderstorms across the region this
  afternoon. 40% chance for a storm to impact terminal sites from
  KMMH-KFER-KLOL eastward, with a 10-20% chance elsewhere. Storms
  bring the potential for heavy downpours with greatly reduced
  visibility and terrain obscuration, along with gusty and erratic
  outflow winds. A few showers may linger overnight.

* Dry weather returns Wednesday, but so do increasing WSW winds.
  Expect gusts to peak at 25-35 kts from 20z-03z on Wednesday.
  Another round of breezy winds Thursday, but this time from the NW.
  -Dawn

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

* Fire Weather Watches were upgraded to Red Flag Warnings for the
  desert areas of northeast CA, east of US-395, in addition to
  portions of northwestern Nevada on Wednesday.

* Despite the surge of moisture today, that is quickly scoured out
  Wednesday, especially for those areas closer to the Oregon border.
  It will take a little longer for the dry air to work into the
  western Nevada Sierra Front, but we`ll still see it occur by late
  afternoon.

* While minimum RH values will be a bit higher than the
  "traditional" Red Flag 15% mark, given the state of the lower-
  elevation fine fuels and the anticipated 35-45 mph WSW wind
  gusts, any new fire starts would easily carry. The other concern
  would be the potential for new ignitions from thunderstorms
  today.

* Winds to turn NW Thursday behind a cold front with gusts of 20-30
  mph across the area and minimum RH values in the 8-12% range
  outside of the forests. Localized critical conditions are once
  again expected. -Dawn

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Red Flag Warning from 2 PM to 11 PM PDT Wednesday NVZ420.

     Lake Wind Advisory from noon to 8 PM PDT Wednesday NVZ003-004.

     Red Flag Warning from 2 PM to 11 PM PDT Wednesday NVZ423-458.

CA...Red Flag Warning from 2 PM to 11 PM PDT Wednesday CAZ270-278.

&&

$$