191
FXUS62 KTAE 280147
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
947 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

...New UPDATE, MARINE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 936 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

The main highlights to tonight`s forecast were tweaking rain
chances based on current radar trends, and the 0Z HRRR. Only
isolated activity is apparent at this time, but look for
additional development the next few hrs. This evening`s balloon
data depicts a very moist airmass characterized by Precipitable
Water of 2.14". Meanwhile, a well-defined shortwave is evident on
vapor imagery over the Lower MS Valley. This feature is attendant
to a frontal boundary draped across the Northern Gulf Coast and
will maintain elevated rain chances into tomorrow morning. Expect
the greatest convective coverage roughly along/south of I-10 where
instability is greatest, especially near the coast and offshore.
Lastly, minimum temperatures were slightly adjusted based on this
morning`s minT`s and the latest MOS guidance.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Friday)
Issued at 312 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

An upper shortwave trough and weak surface frontal feature
will maintain cloud cover this evening as ample moisture and weak
ascent remain situated over the region. This will keep temperatures
in the mid 70s for our SE AL and SW GA counties with upper 70s to
perhaps low 80s in our FL counties if cloud cover is thicker than
forecast. Generally scattered to broken cloud cover is expected to
prevail tomorrow as the frontal feature continues to weaken over the
area, though it should provide enough forcing to spark widespread
showers and thunderstorms across the area tomorrow afternoon.
Similar to today, the cloud cover should keep temperatures on the
"cooler" side with our inland areas seeing highs in the low to mid
90s with our coastal regions possibly seeing highs in the upper 80s.
However, ample surface moisture will yield heat indices in the 100s,
possibly meeting heat advisory criteria particularly along our
western FL Panhandle counties, eastern FL Big Bend counties, and
southeasternmost SW GA counties.

Fire: South southwest transport winds generally 10-15kts with
gradually increasing mixing heights each day will yield good to
elevated dispersions areawide with pockets of high dispersions
possible. Widespread high dispersions appear possible on Saturday as
mixing heights see a notable increase areawide. Chances for showers
and thunderstorms exist each day beginning along the coast in the
mornings before moving inland in the afternoon. Some storms tomorrow
may be strong to possibly severe with gusty and erratic winds within

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday night through Saturday night)
Issued at 312 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Fairly wet pattern continues into the beginning of the weekend as
a broad upper level trough weakens but a moist airmass remains in
place. Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue to follow a
largely diurnal trend with coverage transitioning from sea to land
through the day with afternoon heating. The region will be on the
western periphery of a surface high so light to moderate
southerly flow should push showers and thunderstorms inland
through the day as they move in and develop off of the water.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 312 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

The beginning of the period remains wet as deep-layer moisture
remains in place. The surface high across the western Atlantic
weakens into next week as an upper level ridge begins to build
across the south. With the local area being on the eastern side of
the ridge, some reduction in storm chances are expected but with
precipitable waters still remaining around 2 inches, and the
daytime heating under the influence of the ridge adding plenty of
instability, daily chances for showers and storms are still
likely. With showers and thunderstorms taking longer to develop
each afternoon, and rain chances slowly decreasing after Monday,
expect a gradual warm up. By Tuesday or Wednesday, widespread
highs could be back in the upper 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 150 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

The main forecast challenge will be timing showers, rain, and
thunderstorms against the backdrop of a moist, unstable air mass
with southwesterly low-mid level flow. We are currently left with
areas of stratiform rain and rain-cooled air. A broken line of
thunderstorms is currently making headway across the western
Panhandle, but it is likely to be weakening as it reaches ECP and
DHN in the next few hours, thanks to the rain-cooled air. A lull
in activity is expected this evening.

In the hours before sunrise, look for a resurgence of convection
over the warm nearshore Gulf waters, most likely affecting ECP
well before sunrise. The convection should eventually spread to
the other terminals during the valid period, but it is unclear for
now what mix there will be of convective elements with and without
lightning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 936 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Offshore buoys were reporting SW winds around 12 kts with 3-ft
seas and a dominant period of 5-6 seconds. Overnight rain chances
were adjusted for the latest radar and hi-res model trends. The
latter shows redevelopment late tonight and spreading towards the
Emerald and Forgotten Coasts. Lightning, gusty winds, and
waterspouts would be the main concerns.

From CWF Synopsis...Lingering frontal system will be in place
across the southeast with moist southwesterly flow leading to
scattered shower and thunderstorm redevelopment overnight into
tomorrow morning. Elevated rain chances remain in place through
the weekend until the front washes out. Winds and seas will remain
around 10 to 15 knots through early Saturday before winds become
lighter through the rest of the weekend and early next week. Seas
will drop as well though lingering long period swells from
disturbed weather across the southern Gulf will delay lower seas
until next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 312 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

South southwest transport winds generally 10-15kts with
gradually increasing mixing heights each day will yield good to
elevated dispersions areawide with pockets of high dispersions
possible. Widespread high dispersions appear possible on Saturday as
mixing heights see a notable increase areawide. Chances for showers
and thunderstorms exist each day beginning along the coast in the
mornings before moving inland in the afternoon. Some storms tomorrow
may be strong to possibly severe with gusty and erratic winds within
and near these storms.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 312 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024
Widespread rainfall amounts through next week will be around 1 to
2 inches but with a fairly moist airmass in place localized higher
amounts are possible through the next few days, especially in any
slow moving or training thunderstorms. Widespread flooding risks
are low but will likely be confined to nuisance flooding and/or
where slow moving storms affect poor drainage areas or urban
areas.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   78  90  75  93 /  40  80  10  70
Panama City   78  88  79  90 /  60  70  30  50
Dothan        73  90  74  92 /  40  70  20  60
Albany        75  92  74  94 /  30  70  20  50
Valdosta      76  93  74  96 /  20  70  20  60
Cross City    76  92  75  94 /  40  70  20  70
Apalachicola  79  87  80  90 /  60  70  30  50

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ Friday for
     FLZ108-112-114.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...IG3
NEAR TERM...Worster
SHORT TERM...Dobbs
LONG TERM....Dobbs
AVIATION...Haner
MARINE...Dobbs/IG3
FIRE WEATHER...Worster
HYDROLOGY...Dobbs