111
FXUS64 KTSA 282334
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
634 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight)
Issued at 216 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

Bulk of shower and storm activity gas remained to the
west this afternoon, though some activity is noted across
parts of NE OK. Rain and storm chances will continue tonight
with any weak waves traversing the area in W-NW flow aloft.
Slightly higher PoPs will be focused across the western portion
of the CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Tuesday)
Issued at 216 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

Deep gulf moisture will continue to feed into the area
through Friday while the upper pattern remains active. As is
often seen, model spread regarding timing and placement of an any
individual upper wave problematic, so including PoPs everywhere
in most if not all periods of the forecast cycle is reasonable
given the upper pattern. At this time, best chances for rain/storms
appear to be late Thursday night into Friday as a more notable
upper wave moves through. Additional, but lower chances for rain
and storms will continue through the weekend and into next week as
little overall change in the upper pattern is expected.
Widespread severe weather is not expected over the next several
days, though an isolated strong to marginally severe storm is
possible.


&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 634 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

VFR should prevail at all TAF sites this evening and overnight
tonight, with mostly dry weather and scattered high clouds.
Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase again by mid-morning
Wednesday for eastern OK terminals and late morning/early
afternoon for the AR terminals as a weak mid/upper level wave
moves across eastern OK and northwest AR. Ceilings should remain
above 3000 feet agl and VFR should generally prevail through much
of the daytime. However, heavier showers/storms that roll over or
approach any of the terminals may drop cigs/vsbys briefly to
MVFR/IFR. Winds remain light and variable through this evening
and night, then turn east/southeasterly and increase a bit during
the daytime on Wednesday.

Mejia

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   84  63  78  63 /  20  20  50  20
FSM   87  66  81  65 /  20  20  60  20
MLC   84  64  79  63 /  20  30  70  20
BVO   84  59  78  59 /  20  20  40  10
FYV   85  61  80  60 /  20  20  60  20
BYV   82  60  77  58 /  20  20  50  10
MKO   82  64  78  63 /  30  20  60  20
MIO   80  60  78  59 /  20  20  40  10
F10   81  64  77  62 /  30  30  60  20
HHW   79  65  79  65 /  20  30  70  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...67