950
FXUS65 KABQ 061120 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
520 AM MDT Sun Sep 6 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 517 AM MDT Sun Sep 6 2026

- Monsoon moisture will remain in place over the area through mid
  next week with a daily risk of cloud-to-ground lightning,
  erratic wind gusts, and localized flash flooding, mainly along
  and near the high terrain.

- Above normal high temperatures will continue across eastern New
  Mexico, where moderate heat risk will occur each day.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 110 AM MDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Upper level high pressure will be building more squarely over the
southern high plains today while a vigorous low moves farther
inland over OR and WA. This will allow high level moisture from
Hurricane Marie to stream northeastward into southern CA, AZ, UT,
and portions of western NM. This will cause storms to expand
westward this afternoon, mainly over the southwestern to west
central mountains. Meanwhile, areas that observed convection
yesterday (along and east of the central mountain chain) will have
another similar shot today. Overall, by late afternoon PWATs will
generally range from about 0.7 to 1.3 inch with the northern
mountains hosting the lower values, and the eastern plains the
highest. Storms will move sluggishly again today, especially over
east central NM where a potential weak centroid of the high might
become established. Upper flow aloft will be much stronger toward
the Four Corners (500 kt at 20-25 kt) due to the Pacific Northwest
low, and some weak jet dynamics and divergence will be present,
but this will likely not be enough to spread much convection into
northwestern NM today. Temperatures will run 3 to 10 degrees
above normal today with the eastern plains seeing the biggest
departures from average. A few CAMs show some sparse showers and
weaker storm activity surviving through this evening into the
early morning hours Monday, mainly in western to central zones.

The high is modeled to nudge eastward over eastern OK and
surrounding states on Monday while the Pacific Northwest low moves
into MT, followed by a trailing low. This will keep some south
southwest winds aloft over much of NM, allowing PWATs and moisture
to turn a bit more homogeneous. A theta-E minimum in the eastern
plains may limit airmass storms Monday afternoon, pushing the
focus to areas along and west of the central mountain chain. Slow
storm motions would continue in the southern half of the state,
but cells would pick up the pace in the northern half as the
subtropical jet feeds north of the Four Corners and ahead of the
MT low. In fact, enough speed shear would be present to provide a
severe component to storms in northwestern to north central NM
Monday, however the updraft strengths may not be enough to
prevent cells just getting torn apart. The faster motions will
reduce the locally heavy rainfall in northern zones, but an
isolated threat will still exist farther south. More clouds,
showers, and storms in western to northern zones will reduce
temperatures closer to normal while the plains stay a few to
several degrees above average.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 110 AM MDT Sun Sep 6 2026

The upper high builds farther east and elongates west-to-east
through Tuesday. Moisture profiles are not modeled to alter much,
but winds aloft will reduce slightly. This will keep a theta-E
ridge stretching from the southwestern mountains northeastward to
the northern peaks of NM, invoking a fairly climatological
distribution of slower moving afternoon storms.

The high elongates more across the southern states on Wednesday,
now shown to build farther west than previous model runs. This
could disrupt moisture over NM, introducing a slight drying while
pressure heights rise. Western and northern mountain ranges are
still modeled to initiate slow-moving cells with a stalled, weak
backdoor front being a fly in the ointment for far northeastern NM
where convergence and upslope might provide a local enhancement
to convection.

Interestingly into Thursday the high skips westward into the
desert southwest states with heights reducing notably. The GFS and
GEFS ensemble mean indicate some drying into NM from the
northwest, but other deterministic and ensembles keep storms
firing over the western and northern mountains while expanding
down the central mountain chain. This trend continues into Friday
and Saturday, as the GFS/GEFS allow drier westerlies to sag
southward into NM. The largest ensemble cluster favors higher
heights over NM, suggesting the GFS/GEFS is more of an outlier,
but overall precipitation signals are still quite noisy with only
the high terrain areas standing out as being more prone to storms.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 517 AM MDT Sun Sep 6 2026

By this afternoon, moisture and instability for storms will
persist along and east of the central mountain chain, but will
also expand over more of the southwestern to west central
mountains in the afternoon. A few isolated storms will struggle to
develop toward the Jemez and Tusas as well. Storms will be slow-
moving, leading to heavy downpours which will reduce ceilings and
visibility temporarily. Small hail, lots of lightning, and gusty
downburst winds to 45 kt will also accompany stronger storms.
Storms will have a hard time moving and redeveloping into the
middle to lower Rio Grande valley through the early evening with
only a few showers and weaker storms surviving through the late
overnight hours into Monday morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 110 AM MDT Sun Sep 6 2026

The monsoon plume of moisture is forecast to widen slightly and
shift westward today. This will place the southwestern, west
central, and central mountains in favorable locations for
thunderstorms this afternoon with a few also struggling to
initiate over the eastern plains. A few will then be able to
regenerate into the middle Rio Grande valley and other nearby
lowlands tonight. The deepest moisture and instability will
stretch from the southwestern to northern mountains of NM on both
Monday and Tuesday. High pressure will abruptly shift back to the
west on Wednesday with storms favoring the western and northern
mountains before expanding back to the central mountain chain
Thursday, Friday and Saturday. Storm movement will be slow today,
picking up on Monday, only to turn much more sluggish for the
remainder of the week. Slow-moving storms will be capable of
significant downpours, but these will still not be very
widespread. Prevailing winds are not expected to create any fire
weather concerns, but rather brief and localized outflows will be
more problematic, creating strong and erratic gusts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  89  63  85  59 /   0  10   0   0
Dulce...........................  88  49  85  49 /   0  10  10  10
Cuba............................  86  57  82  56 /   0  30  30  30
Gallup..........................  88  56  83  52 /   0  20  10  10
El Morro........................  84  54  81  52 /  20  30  40  30
Grants..........................  87  57  84  55 /  10  30  60  40
Quemado.........................  84  57  81  56 /  40  30  70  50
Magdalena.......................  84  61  82  60 /  20  50  40  40
Datil...........................  81  57  79  56 /  40  40  60  50
Reserve.........................  89  57  86  57 /  40  40  60  40
Glenwood........................  95  62  93  61 /  30  40  50  40
Chama...........................  82  51  78  51 /   0  20  30  10
Los Alamos......................  84  60  81  59 /   0  30  40  30
Pecos...........................  85  56  83  56 /  20  40  30  30
Cerro/Questa....................  84  56  80  55 /   0   5  20   5
Red River.......................  79  48  75  47 /   0  10  20   5
Angel Fire......................  80  42  77  41 /  10  10  20   5
Taos............................  87  54  83  53 /   0  10  20  10
Mora............................  82  54  82  53 /  30  20  40  20
Espanola........................  91  61  87  61 /   0  20  40  30
Santa Fe........................  86  59  83  59 /   5  40  30  30
Santa Fe Airport................  89  61  86  60 /   0  40  30  30
Albuquerque Foothills...........  90  65  88  64 /  10  30  20  30
Albuquerque Heights.............  92  66  88  66 /  10  30  20  30
Albuquerque Valley..............  94  66  90  65 /   5  30  20  30
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  93  68  89  66 /   0  30  20  30
Belen...........................  94  64  91  63 /  10  30  20  30
Bernalillo......................  93  66  89  65 /   5  30  30  30
Bosque Farms....................  93  63  90  63 /  10  30  20  30
Corrales........................  94  67  90  66 /   5  30  20  30
Los Lunas.......................  94  65  90  64 /   5  30  20  30
Placitas........................  89  64  86  62 /  10  30  30  30
Rio Rancho......................  92  67  88  66 /   0  30  30  30
Socorro.........................  94  68  92  68 /  10  30  10  30
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  84  59  81  58 /  20  30  20  40
Tijeras.........................  87  62  84  61 /  20  30  20  30
Edgewood........................  88  58  85  57 /  20  30  30  40
Moriarty/Estancia...............  90  56  88  55 /  20  30  30  40
Clines Corners..................  86  58  84  58 /  30  20  30  40
Mountainair.....................  86  58  84  57 /  50  30  20  40
Gran Quivira....................  87  58  85  58 /  50  20  20  20
Carrizozo.......................  88  62  87  63 /  50  10  10  20
Ruidoso.........................  80  56  80  56 /  50  10  20  10
Capulin.........................  84  58  84  58 /  20  20  10   0
Raton...........................  88  56  88  55 /  20  10  10   5
Springer........................  90  57  90  57 /  20  20  20  10
Las Vegas.......................  85  56  84  56 /  30  30  30  20
Clayton.........................  91  65  91  67 /  20  20   0   0
Roy.............................  88  60  87  61 /  20  30   0   0
Conchas.........................  96  66  95  67 /  20  30   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  92  65  91  66 /  20  20   0  10
Tucumcari.......................  96  68  95  69 /  20  20   0   0
Clovis..........................  95  66  95  67 /  20  20   0   0
Portales........................  95  67  95  68 /  20  20   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  96  67  94  68 /  10  20   0   0
Roswell.........................  98  69  97  70 /   0  10   0   0
Picacho.........................  90  60  90  61 /  10  10   0   0
Elk.............................  87  57  86  57 /  20   5   5   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...52