498
FXUS65 KABQ 071730 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1130 AM MDT Mon Sep 7 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1130 AM MDT Mon Sep 7 2026

- Monsoon moisture will remain in place over the area through mid
  next week with a daily risk of cloud-to-ground lightning,
  erratic wind gusts, and localized flash flooding, mostly across
  the high terrain and nearby lower elevations. Overall storm
  coverage looks to be highest on Wednesday.

- Above normal high temperatures will continue across eastern New
  Mexico, where moderate heat risk will occur each day.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 107 AM MDT Mon Sep 7 2026

An elongated, double-lobed low over OR, WA, and British Columbia
will send the southern vort max eastward into MT today while the
other one sags south into its wake. A 55-80 kt jet at 300 mb is also
stretching from the lower CO river basin northeastward to UT, CO,
and WY. High pressure will continue to build over the southern
plains, and ample monsoon moisture will remain present over most of
NM (PWATs ranging from 0.7 inch in the northern mountains to about
1.2 inches in lower elevations near the Pecos valley). Pinpointing
the best instability along with this moisture, the theta-E ridge
leans from the southwestern and south central mountains to the
northern peaks with the western-most portion of this swath hosting
the highest values. Consequently, this is where most convection is
modeled to develop this afternoon before outflows initiate new cells
into nearby lower elevations and valleys this evening. Storm motions
will tend to all drift northward, but some deviations will certainly
appear, given the asymmetrical shape of the high, and speeds will
range from about 5 to 15 kt with cells in the northern half of
the CWA tending to be quicker. Temperatures will be comparable to
yesterday with highs running around 10 degrees above normal in the
east where pressure heights are highest.

The latter lobe of the double low in the Pacific Northwest will
shift into MT on Tuesday, following its predecessor. This will drag
the jet up into the central Rockies to the northern plains while the
upper high sprawls and elongates across the southern states. This
will only subtly modify the moisture and instability axis over NM
with just a minor nudge eastward, opening the opportunity for more
convection over the central mountain chain Tuesday afternoon. The
northeast plains and nearby highlands would also likely see
scattered storms with minimal activity in our southeastern and far
northwestern zones. Storms would slow down and motion would turn
more erratic with a near persistence temperature forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 107 AM MDT Mon Sep 7 2026

The sprawling high will continue to overlay the southern states
into Wednesday, with pressure rises modeled over NM (500 mb
heights reaching near 596 decameters over western portions of the
state). This would yield a degree or two of warming, but a
backdoor front entering northeastern zones will likely reduce
readings by a couple to a few degrees, particularly in Colfax and
Union counties. Otherwise, moisture will be readily available over
most of the forecast area except the northwestern quadrant of the
state where some drier air will have wrapped in. This will again
leave out those northwestern zones and southeastern zones for any
storm potential Wednesday while the areas along and east of the
Sangre de Cristos see an uptick due to upslope and
surface/moisture convergence.

High pressure looks to stay over or to the southwest of NM into
Thursday and Friday. Drier westerly flow will will begin to become
more invasive Thursday (mainly over northwestern to north central
zones) and more-so into Friday (over much of northern and central
NM). With PWATs falling to 0.6 to 0.7 inch in many of these drier
areas, storms will reduce in number. This will send temperatures
climbing 5 to almost 15 degrees above normal.

Into the upcoming weekend, the pattern will potentially start to
turn a bit more dynamic with the high shifting east of NM while
another deep upper low moves into the Pacific Northwest states.
This would allow subtropical moisture to be squeezed northward
into NM, between the upper level features, and POPs increase again
with scattered coverage favoring the western and central high
terrain. Temperatures would ease down closer to, but still
slightly above, normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1130 AM MDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Scattered to numerous showers and storms favoring the southwest
and north central mountains along with the Continental Divide this
afternoon before spreading northeast into the upper and middle
RGV early this evening. Storms will be capable of producing
locally heavy rainfall, erratic wind gusts up to 45 mph, and
frequent lightning. Shower and thunderstorm activity across
central NM lingers through late this evening. Clearing skies and
light winds overnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 107 AM MDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Today, the deepest moisture and instability will stretch from the
southwestern and south central mountains to the northern peaks of
NM. Heavy downpours will be possible today, mostly south of I-40, as
cells will tend to move a bit quicker to the north of this line.
Overall wetting rainfall will still be spotty and not very
widespread while temperatures remain near to slightly above normal
by 5 to 10 degrees. After good to excellent humidity recovery this
morning, readings will commonly fall to 25 to 35 percent late
this afternoon.

Storms will tend to become a bit more numerous over the central
mountain chain on Tuesday as moisture/instability nudge that way.
High pressure moves back to the west on Wednesday with storms
favoring the west central and southwestern mountains, as well as the
central mountain chain. In addition, storms will develop more easily
in northeastern NM on Wednesday when a weak, but moist backdoor
front moves in. This front could send a convectively-aided outflow
boundary into central gaps and canyons creating some gusty
conditions, but confidence is quite low on this scenario playing out
Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Otherwise, wind concerns will
be relegated to shorter duration and localized storm outflow gusts.

Storms will start to shrink in coverage Thursday and more-so into
Friday as weak, but drier, westerlies aloft invade. This could
change into the upcoming weekend as high pressure nudges eastward
and a deep low enters the Pacific Northwest, allowing subtropical
monsoon moisture to seep back into NM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  88  62  91  61 /  10   5   0   0
Dulce...........................  86  48  89  47 /  10   5   0   0
Cuba............................  84  57  86  57 /  30  50   0  10
Gallup..........................  86  55  88  56 /  10  10  10  10
El Morro........................  82  54  84  55 /  50  50  30  20
Grants..........................  85  58  86  58 /  70  70  40  20
Quemado.........................  82  56  83  57 /  80  40  50  30
Magdalena.......................  84  60  84  62 /  50  50  50  10
Datil...........................  80  57  80  58 /  80  60  50  30
Reserve.........................  88  56  89  57 /  80  50  50  20
Glenwood........................  95  61  95  62 /  70  50  40  20
Chama...........................  80  51  83  52 /   5  10  10   5
Los Alamos......................  84  62  84  63 /  30  50  50  20
Pecos...........................  85  58  86  59 /  20  30  20  20
Cerro/Questa....................  83  56  84  56 /  20  20  20  10
Red River.......................  74  48  75  48 /  20  20  40  10
Angel Fire......................  79  43  80  42 /  40  20  50  10
Taos............................  86  55  88  54 /  20  20  20  10
Mora............................  83  54  83  54 /  30  30  70  20
Espanola........................  91  62  91  62 /  30  50  20  20
Santa Fe........................  86  62  87  63 /  20  40  10  20
Santa Fe Airport................  89  61  89  61 /  20  40  10  20
Albuquerque Foothills...........  92  68  93  70 /  10  40  10  10
Albuquerque Heights.............  93  66  93  67 /  10  40  10  10
Albuquerque Valley..............  94  65  95  67 /  10  40  10  10
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  93  68  94  69 /  20  40  10  10
Belen...........................  94  64  94  65 /  20  40  10  10
Bernalillo......................  94  67  95  68 /  20  40  10  20
Bosque Farms....................  94  63  93  65 /  10  40  10  10
Corrales........................  94  67  95  68 /  20  40  10  10
Los Lunas.......................  94  64  93  66 /  10  40  10  10
Placitas........................  90  66  91  67 /  20  40  10  20
Rio Rancho......................  93  67  94  68 /  20  40  10  10
Socorro.........................  95  68  95  70 /  20  40  10  10
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  86  61  87  63 /  20  40  10  20
Tijeras.........................  87  62  88  64 /  20  40  10  20
Edgewood........................  88  58  89  60 /  20  40  20  20
Moriarty/Estancia...............  90  57  91  57 /  20  40  20  20
Clines Corners..................  85  60  87  60 /  10  30  20  30
Mountainair.....................  87  58  88  60 /  20  30  20  20
Gran Quivira....................  87  59  88  61 /   5  20  20  20
Carrizozo.......................  90  64  90  65 /  10  10  30  20
Ruidoso.........................  82  57  82  58 /  20   5  50  10
Capulin.........................  87  59  86  56 /  10  20  70  40
Raton...........................  90  57  89  55 /  20  20  60  10
Springer........................  92  58  92  56 /  20  20  50  20
Las Vegas.......................  87  58  87  57 /  10  20  30  20
Clayton.........................  93  67  93  65 /  10   5  20  30
Roy.............................  90  63  91  61 /   5   5  20  40
Conchas.........................  98  68  99  68 /   0   0  10  30
Santa Rosa......................  95  67  95  66 /   0   0  10  20
Tucumcari.......................  98  71  99  70 /   0   0   0  10
Clovis..........................  96  68  97  68 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  97  68  98  69 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  97  68  98  69 /   0   0   0  10
Roswell.........................  98  70  99  70 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  91  61  92  63 /   0   0  10   5
Elk.............................  88  59  90  59 /  10   0  20  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...71