611
FXUS65 KABQ 301733 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1033 AM MST Sun Nov 30 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1027 AM MST Sun Nov 30 2025

- Falling temperatures are expected Sunday with highs on Monday
  varying from a few to as much as 15 degrees below 30-year
  averages. Even colder temperatures are expected Thursday.

- Accumulating snow will make roads slick in the north central and
  northwest mountains Sunday night into Monday morning, as well as
  the Chuska Mountains. Travel may become difficult through the
  Tusas Mountains.

- Accumulating snow may again make roads slick in many locations
  above 6,000 feet from the east slopes of the central mountain
  chain westward Wednesday afternoon through Thursday, including
  portions of I-25 and I-40 from Las Vegas to Moriarty and Clines
  Corners. The heaviest snow currently looks to impact the
  northern mountains, where travel may become difficult.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 1233 AM MST Sun Nov 30 2025

Gusty east canyon winds will taper off toward sunrise this
morning, when the Sunport should finally, officially drop below
freezing for the first time this season. This will be the latest
first freeze on record for the Sunport, smashing the previous
latest first freeze which occurred on November 22, 2007. Otherwise,
widespread low clouds east of the central mountain chain, as well
as around Los Alamos and Santa Fe, will gradually diminish by mid
morning Sunday. Surface winds will then veer out of the south and
southwest during midday and afternoon. Despite the southerly
winds, in the wake of the backdoor cold front that crossed on
Saturday, high temperatures on Sunday will fall a few degrees
across western parts of the forecast area, several degrees across
central parts, and up to 26 degrees on the eastern plains.

Sunday night and early Monday, a quick hitting upper level trough
and Pacific cold front will swing through the central Rockies and
northern NM from the northwest, while producing accumulating snow
in New Mexico`s northern mountains and northwest highlands near
and above 7000 feet. A few inches of snow are expected from Dulce
to Chama, and as much as 8 inches in the Tusas Mountains where a
Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect from 6 PM Sunday until 8
AM Monday. A few inches of snow are also expected above 8000 feet
in the Chuska Mountains, as well as the Sangre de Cristo Mountains
where up to a half foot of fresh powder is forecast on the highest
peaks. High temperatures on Monday are forecast to fall a few to
13 degrees from Sunday`s readings along and west of the central
mountain chain, while warming up to 12 degrees on the eastern
plains.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 1233 AM MST Sun Nov 30 2025

In between systems on Tuesday, high temperatures will climb a few
to 15 degrees from Monday`s readings, varying within 5 degrees
either side of 30-year averages.

A deeper upper level trough and Pacific cold front will then
cross from the northwest with more widespread precipitation
Wednesday afternoon through Thursday. Ensemble cluster analysis
indicates models are coming into better agreement with this
system, with the two most likely scenarios depicting a closed
upper level low pressure system forming over AZ Wednesday and
Wednesday night, then probably opening into a trough as it tracks
eastward over northern and central NM on Thursday. Ahead of the
upper level trough a backdoor cold front will dive southwestward
through the eastern plains Tuesday night, then through gaps in the
central mountain chain with a moderately gusty east wind below
canyons opening into the central valley Wednesday night. Snow
levels will probably vary around 5000-7000 feet Wednesday
afternoon and night, except east of the central mountain chain
where snow levels may fall near 4000 feet by Thursday morning.
Most of the precipitation will probably fall Wednesday night and
Thursday, with a few to several inches of accumulation in the
northern mountains above 8000 feet, and a few inches elsewhere as
low as 6000 feet from the east slopes of the central mountain
chain to the continental divide. Models vary on how quickly the
upper trough will exit Thursday night, so some wintry precip may
linger. High temperatures look to bottom out in most places on
Thursday with readings around 3-20 degrees bellow 1991-2020
averages.

Dry and probably gusty northwest flow aloft is then forecast at
the end of the week with with gradually warming temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1027 AM MST Sun Nov 30 2025

IFR/MVFR ceilings are clearing along the highlands of the central
mountain chain this hour, still loitering near KLVS however.
Surface winds will steady veer southerly at most locations this
afternoon ahead of the next winter system clipping northern NM
tonight. Winds will turn westerly to northwesterly with the
Pacific cold front tonight. IFR/MVFR conditions associated with
lowering ceilings and snow will be relegated to the northern
mountain areas. KFMN has the best chance of TAF terminals of
seeing a short period of reduced visibilities <2SM from snow. The
band of snow steadily loses its cohesion by the time it reaches
KSAF and KABQ as snow becomes mostly terrain driven along
southwest facing slopes of the Sangre de Cristo and Tusas Mts
early Monday morning. VFR will prevail for all areas along and
east of the central mountain chain and all areas along and south
of I-40 except perhaps KGUP and KGNT. Conditions steadily clear
out thru Monday morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1233 AM MST Sun Nov 30 2025

Minimum humidities are forecast to stay above 15 percent for the
next seven days. South and southwest winds will probably gust up
to 40 mph Sunday afternoon around Gallup, and from Las Vegas to
Raton and Clayton. There is a roughly 50 percent chance that
southwest winds will gust up to 45 mph from Clines Corners eastward
Tuesday afternoon. Gap winds in the central valley may reach up
to 35 mph from Santa Fe southward through Albuquerque and east of
Socorro Wednesday night. Chances are increasing that northwest
winds will gust in the 30-40 mph range in many locations Friday
and Saturday, with the greatest risk over the mountains and east
central areas. Areas of poor ventilation Sunday and Monday should
become broader Tuesday and Wednesday, then widespread Thursday
and Friday, before some ventilation improvement over western and
south central parts of the fire weather forecast area on Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  52  27  43  21 /  10  60   0   0
Dulce...........................  47  19  42   9 /  40  80   5   0
Cuba............................  44  22  38  14 /   5  60   5   0
Gallup..........................  53  19  42  12 /   0  50   0   0
El Morro........................  52  24  42  18 /   0  40  10   0
Grants..........................  55  23  45  13 /   0  40   5   0
Quemado.........................  57  28  43  18 /   0  10  10   0
Magdalena.......................  54  31  47  25 /   0   5   5   0
Datil...........................  54  29  43  21 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  59  25  54  19 /   0   0   5   0
Glenwood........................  64  29  60  21 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  41  17  36   9 /  40  90  20   0
Los Alamos......................  42  28  40  21 /   0  50  10   0
Pecos...........................  44  25  43  19 /   0  30  10   0
Cerro/Questa....................  42  23  37  16 /   5  70  30   0
Red River.......................  34  17  29  11 /   0  80  30   0
Angel Fire......................  40  14  35   4 /   0  60  20   0
Taos............................  44  22  40  11 /   0  60  20   0
Mora............................  46  20  42  16 /   0  40  10   0
Espanola........................  49  26  47  17 /   0  60  10   0
Santa Fe........................  44  29  42  22 /   0  40  10   0
Santa Fe Airport................  46  28  45  19 /   0  30  10   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  51  35  47  29 /   0  20  10   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  54  34  50  24 /   0  20  10   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  55  33  52  19 /   0  20  10   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  52  34  50  24 /   0  20   5   0
Belen...........................  55  30  53  15 /   0  10  10   0
Bernalillo......................  53  33  50  23 /   0  20  10   0
Bosque Farms....................  55  30  52  14 /   0  20  10   0
Corrales........................  54  33  51  22 /   0  20  10   0
Los Lunas.......................  55  32  52  16 /   0  20  10   0
Placitas........................  49  33  45  26 /   0  30  10   0
Rio Rancho......................  52  34  50  24 /   0  20  10   0
Socorro.........................  57  32  57  25 /   0   5   5   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  47  29  42  22 /   0  30  20   0
Tijeras.........................  48  31  43  23 /   0  20  10   0
Edgewood........................  50  29  45  19 /   0  20  10   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  52  27  46  13 /   0  20   5   0
Clines Corners..................  44  26  42  19 /   0   5   0   0
Mountainair.....................  49  30  45  20 /   0  20   5   0
Gran Quivira....................  49  28  47  21 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  52  33  51  27 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  49  35  47  26 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  31  13  33  14 /   0  10  20   0
Raton...........................  36  14  40  12 /   0  20  20   0
Springer........................  40  16  43  12 /   0  10  10   0
Las Vegas.......................  40  22  43  17 /   0  10   5   0
Clayton.........................  35  20  40  19 /   0   5   5   0
Roy.............................  35  18  43  16 /   0   0   5   0
Conchas.........................  44  22  48  19 /   0   0   5   0
Santa Rosa......................  40  22  47  21 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  44  22  47  20 /   0   0   5   0
Clovis..........................  40  21  49  21 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  42  20  52  19 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  44  20  51  19 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  45  24  58  24 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  47  25  57  24 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  52  28  58  23 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 8 AM MST
Monday for NMZ210-213.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...24