205
FXUS65 KABQ 281953
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1253 PM MST Fri Nov 28 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1245 PM MST Fri Nov 28 2025

- A backdoor cold front on Saturday will drop low temperatures to
  the coldest readings so far this season. Low temperatures in the
  teens and 20s will be common Saturday night.

- Slick and icy roads from snow are forecast across the northern
  and west central high terrain Sunday night into Monday morning.

- Colder early next week with high temperatures slightly below
  average across western and central New Mexico and well below
  average across eastern New Mexico.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 1245 PM MST Fri Nov 28 2025

A shortwave trough will cross northern NM overnight. As it does
so, H7 winds will increase to between 40 and 50kt along and just
east of the Central Mountain Chain. Mountain wave activity appears
likely, though the strongest winds will remain confined to the
east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo Mtns with localized gusts
greater than 40 mph. Though winds will not be as strong at lower
elevations, westerly winds should be strong enough to keep
widespread low clouds and fog from forming again tonight. One
exception looks to be the lower Pecos River Valley around KROW
where patchy low clouds may redevelop. The aforementioned
shortwave will move out Saturday morning, but an associated
backdoor cold front will arrive in its wake. The front will press
southward across eastern NM through Saturday afternoon with much
cooler air arriving behind it. High temperatures across far
northeast NM will struggle to reach 40 degrees, which will be
around 20 degrees cooler than today. Much colder and drier air
will continue to filter into eastern NM through Saturday evening.
Low temperatures across eastern NM will be the coldest of the
season thus far Saturday night, with lows dropping into the teens
for most locations. Additionally, the front should push westward
through the gaps of the Central Mtn Chain. A modest pressure and
density gradient should allow for breezy to locally windy
conditions below canyons in the Rio Grande Valley.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 1245 PM MST Fri Nov 28 2025

On Sunday, the next shortwave will be diving southward toward the
Four Corners, though westerly flow should prevail over NM for much
of the day. Despite the westerly flow aloft and surface winds
veering around to the south, eastern NM will remain quite cold.
High temperatures will be around 13-18 degrees below normal.

On Sunday night through Monday morning, the sharp trough will
cross northern NM. An associated Pacific front will also slide
from northwest to southeast. Modest moisture will accompany the
system with the best chances of precipitation focused along and
just behind the front across northwest and north central NM
between late Sunday evening and noon Monday. Snow levels will
begin around 6-7kft and will fall through Monday morning to
between 5-5.5kft. Attm, snow amounts are forecast to be minimal -
generally less than 0.5 inch below 8kft and between 1 and 4 inches
above 8kft, with the highest amounts across the high peaks of the
Tusas Mountains. Thus, it does not appear Winter Weather
Advisories will be needed for this event, though wouldn`t be
surprised if forecast amounts came up a smidge over the next day.
The window for precipitation will quickly close after 18Z Mon as
much drier air filters into the area. Temperatures will be below
normal areawide on Monday.

Dry northwest flow will prevail on Tuesday, but the next storm
system will be gaining strength across the NW CONUS.
Unfortunately, confidence is low with regards to how this system
will track. Models and ensembles appears to have two differing
solutions. 1.) A slow-moving open wave trough or 2.) An upper low
that retrogrades out to the Pacific. These varying solutions make
it difficult to pinpoint the best chances for precipitation (both
timing and location). Additionally, it appears another backdoor
cold front will arrive on Wednesday which may also result in light
precipitation thru Thursday. For now, have maintained low grade
PoPs for the Wed-Thurs timeframe but this may change as confidence
in the track and timing of the system increases.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1048 AM MST Fri Nov 28 2025

Low clouds across eastern NM have largely dissipated late this
morning, though it will be possible for low clouds to redevelop
along the Pecos River Valley in the vicinity of KROW tonight.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail. High clouds will
continue to lessen in coverage from west to east today. Daytime
mixing will allow for a few westerly breezes this afternoon with
gusts mainly between 20 and 25kt. A shortwave trough will cross
northern NM overnight. Winds speeds will remain elevated across
mountain peaks with mountain wave activity expected along and east
of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains, especially the southern Sangre
de Cristo Mts. At lower elevations where winds will decouple, low
level wind shear will develop, including at KABQ, KAEG, KLVS and
KTCC. On Saturday morning, a backdoor cold front will shift into
NE NM with gusty north to northeast winds behind it. This front
will continue to slide southward through the afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1245 PM MST Fri Nov 28 2025

Critical fire weather conditions are not expected for the next 7
days. Breezy westerly winds today across east central NM will
become breezy north to northeasterly winds on Saturday behind a
backdoor cold front. Additionally, ridgetop winds will remain
elevated overnight tonight as a shortwave trough passes. Winds on
Sunday will quickly veer around to the south, with afternoon
breezes returning once again. Fortunately, minimum RH values will
mainly remain above 20 percent each afternoon. After today, high
temperatures will be at or below normal as well. Best chances for
precipitation will be Sun night through Monday morning across
northwest and north central NM with light snow accumulations
across the mountains. Another storm system mid to late next week
should bring another round of precipitation to the state, though
confidence is low on location and amounts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  28  50  25  51 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  20  49  16  48 /   5   0   0   5
Cuba............................  26  48  21  45 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  23  53  18  54 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  27  51  23  53 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  24  54  20  55 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  27  53  25  57 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  34  56  30  54 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  30  54  27  54 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  26  61  25  59 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  29  65  29  63 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  20  43  17  41 /   0   0   0   5
Los Alamos......................  32  48  25  43 /   0   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  30  51  19  44 /   0   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  26  43  23  42 /   0   0   0   0
Red River.......................  23  36  14  34 /   0   0   0   0
Angel Fire......................  22  43   9  39 /   0   0   0   0
Taos............................  24  47  17  44 /   0   0   0   0
Mora............................  29  49  16  45 /   0   0   0   0
Espanola........................  29  53  23  49 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  32  49  25  44 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  29  52  22  47 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  37  54  29  51 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  35  57  28  52 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  32  59  25  54 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  35  57  28  52 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  31  59  23  56 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  34  56  26  52 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  30  58  22  54 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  33  57  26  52 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  31  58  23  54 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  35  53  27  48 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  34  55  27  51 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  36  61  29  58 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  34  50  23  45 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  34  51  24  48 /   0   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  33  51  19  48 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  29  56  15  50 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  31  50  17  43 /   0   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  32  54  21  49 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  33  54  22  49 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  37  58  28  52 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  38  55  25  47 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  25  37  12  32 /   0   0   0   0
Raton...........................  27  43  12  38 /   0   0   0   0
Springer........................  27  49  15  40 /   0   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  31  50  16  40 /   0   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  33  40  15  36 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................  31  46  15  35 /   0   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  33  55  19  42 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  38  56  19  40 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  37  54  18  42 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  40  54  19  39 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  39  56  20  40 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  36  58  21  42 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  37  67  28  44 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  39  65  25  47 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  36  64  21  51 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....34
AVIATION...34