885
FXUS65 KABQ 112317 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
417 PM MST Tue Nov 11 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 345 PM MST Tue Nov 11 2025

- West wind gusts up to 40 mph will impact areas from Clines
  Corners, to Vaughn, and across northeast Lincoln County today.

- Temperatures will warm to within a few degrees of record highs
  across eastern New Mexico this afternoon and again Thursday
  afternoon.

- Valley rain and mountain snowfall may impact parts of the region
  this weekend. However, there is still a lot of uncertainty with
  the storm track, timing, snow levels, precipitation coverage
  and intensity.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1154 AM MST Tue Nov 11 2025

Northwest winds over the crest of the Rocky mountains have induced
the development of a leeside low in northeastern NM late this
morning, which has begun to create some breezy northwest winds in
the Central Highlands and Eastern Plains. The compressional heating
in the eastern plains has been quite impressive as evidenced by
temps in the mid to upper 70s directly underneath the sfc low. As of
11AM, Clayton is already 78F, just 1 degree off of their record high
for the day. Temps will begin to drop in the mid-afternoon though as
north winds take over, ushering in a cooler airmass that will
eventually spread across all of eastern NM tonight.

It will be another quiet, seasonably warm night around central and
northern New Mexico. High clouds pushing in from the west could
interfere slightly with the set-up of valley inversions so most
areas will probably be a few ticks warmer than last night.

Wednesday will be another nice day with temperatures around 10
degrees above seasonal normals and partly cloudy skies areawide. A
modest south to southwest breeze will likely develop in the
northeast plains in response to a sfc low in SE Colorado, with light
winds elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 1154 AM MST Tue Nov 11 2025

A ridge axis will shift overhead on Thursday as the next storm
system starts taking shape off the coast of California. Models have
had quite strong disagreement about the evolution of this storm
system Friday into the weekend, but there is high confidence that a
closed Low will separate from the jet stream as it ejects into
southern CA late Friday into Saturday. The only sensible weather
change in central and northern NM on Friday will be a slight
increase in south to southwest winds in response to the approaching
storm system.

Ensemble guidance has continued to trend slower with
the closed Low as it treks inland this weekend and deterministic
guidance is also beginning to catch up as well. The slower track is
also relevant because it will increase the likelihood that the next
approaching trough over the north Pacific will pick up this Low and
advect it into the central/northern Rockies. This increasingly
likely scenario would translate to less rain/snow in New Mexico and
warmer than previously advertised temperatures as well. PoPs have
been decreased and snow levels have been increased with this
forecast package, but even these update values are likely lagging
behind the most recent model guidance, which suggests only light
precipitation in the northwest third of the state. While there is
still a low chance (~20%) of a deep closed Low trekking into
southern/central NM, this scenario is becoming less likely.
Regardless of exactly how this storm system pans out, one can expect
an uptick in southwest to west winds as a Pacific front pushes
through and cooler temperatures (near to slightly below seasonal
normals) on Monday and Tuesday in its wake.

Model uncertainty only increases more by the middle of next week.
That being said, both the GEFS and EPS ensemble mean 500mb heights
are showing anomalous troughing over the western CONUS, which
suggests an active and progressive storm track with additional
chances for rain/snow across New Mexico.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 345 PM MST Tue Nov 11 2025

VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist through the TAF
period with periods of VFR cigs in the form of high clouds.
Otherwise, winds will be mostly light.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1154 AM MST Tue Nov 11 2025

Elevated fire weather conditions are ongoing across eastern NM where
wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph and 10 to 20% RH are currently present.
Northwest winds will turn around to the north this afternoon into
the overnight as a weak frontal boundary pushes southward down the
plains. Dry conditions with above average temperatures are expected
to continue through Friday. A slight uptick in winds may create a
few hours of elevated fire weather conditions both Thursday and
Friday in eastern New Mexico.

A storm system will likely impact the area this weekend, with lower
elevation rain, mountain snow, and cooler temperatures. Model
guidance has trended slower and drier with this storm system, with
widespread precipitation appearing less likely.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  32  66  37  68 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  26  66  27  66 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  32  66  35  65 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  26  67  31  66 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  35  66  38  64 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  26  70  31  70 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  34  69  36  67 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  40  68  42  68 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  36  67  38  65 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  30  74  35  72 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  32  78  39  77 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  30  61  30  61 /   0   0   0   0
Los Alamos......................  41  63  42  63 /   0   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  36  65  40  66 /   0   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  33  63  36  63 /   0   0   0   0
Red River.......................  31  55  33  55 /   0   0   0   0
Angel Fire......................  16  61  24  61 /   0   0   0   0
Taos............................  29  66  28  66 /   0   0   0   0
Mora............................  32  66  39  66 /   0   0   0   0
Espanola........................  31  70  34  71 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  39  64  41  65 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  34  66  37  66 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  44  69  46  68 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  40  70  41  70 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  37  72  39  71 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  38  69  42  70 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  31  71  33  71 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  37  71  41  71 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  31  71  33  71 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  35  72  40  71 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  30  71  36  71 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  41  67  44  67 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  39  70  41  71 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  40  74  41  74 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  41  65  40  64 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  41  66  41  65 /   0   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  37  68  36  67 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  26  70  30  69 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  35  65  37  65 /   0   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  38  68  39  67 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  36  69  39  68 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  43  72  44  71 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  42  67  44  66 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  33  63  37  68 /   0   0   0   0
Raton...........................  31  66  34  71 /   0   0   0   0
Springer........................  29  69  33  72 /   0   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  36  67  39  69 /   0   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  40  69  43  76 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................  35  66  37  72 /   0   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  35  74  37  78 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  37  72  42  75 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  36  74  41  79 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  42  74  43  79 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  36  75  40  81 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  36  73  39  80 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  40  75  39  80 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  42  75  44  79 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  39  75  41  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...11