195
FXUS65 KABQ 150836
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
236 AM MDT Tue Sep 15 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 232 AM MDT Tue Sep 15 2026

- A surge of rich monsoon moisture will continue to push into northern
  and central New Mexico this week, increasing the chances for
  showers and thunderstorms. This will introduce a risk of locally
  heavy rainfall and flash flooding, especially around urban
  areas, burn scars, and low water crossings on Wednesday and
  Thursday.

- Water will begin to flow in normally dry arroyos, creeks,
  streams, and tributaries to mainstem rivers that have dried up
  this summer. Dirt roads will become muddy, and large areas of
  standing water may form in low-lying areas.

- Isolated strong storms each afternoon and evening this week
  could produce strong outflow wind gusts, wet microbursts, and
  small hail.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 232 AM MDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Scattered showers continue tonight around the region, with a few
embedded storms, associated with a disturbance that is currently
located over the Southwest Mountains. This feature will be the focus
of convection today as it lifts northward along the Continental
Divide. This disturbance will bring even more moisture with it,
surging PWATs to 200% of normal across the western third of the
state, with PWATs 150-200% of normal in central NM. Widespread
showers and storms will be efficient rain producers, increasing the
threat of both flash flooding and wet microbursts. Flash flooding is
a possibility almost anywhere around the region, but the risk will
be highest over the Southwest Mountains today. Storm motions will be
towards the north/northeast at 10 to 15 mph, but storms will attempt
to propagate southward, keeping updrafts anchored over the same
areas. This will likely lead to localized rainfall totals in the 1-
3" range. Much of this area received at least 0.5" of soaking
rainfall overnight, with some areas getting as much as 2".

Hi-res models, including the RRFS, are picking up on a cluster of
storms developing over the Sangre de Cristo Mountains early in the
afternoon and moving into the northeast plains during the late
afternoon and evening. This cluster should become outflow dominant,
limiting the flash flood potential, but a potent outflow boundary
could pack west wind gusts of 30 to 60 mph across Colfax, Harding,
and Union Counties.

The extensive cloud coverage will keep temperatures down today, with
highs actually slightly below average in the western half of the
state. This will be a welcomed change from the record heat during
the first couple weeks of the month.

The trough over the Pacific Northwest will dig southward Wednesday,
keeping the plume of sub-tropical moisture focused over eastern AZ
and western NM. Moisture transport will intensify under the
influence of stronger southerly flow. This will have the impact of
increasing storm coverage and storm speeds as well. The coverage of
rainfall will likely peak on Wednesday and it could be the wettest
day of the Monsoon Season in terms of coverage of wetting rainfall.
The probability of 0.5" for the 24-hour period ending Wednesday
night is at least 40% everywhere along and east of the central
mountain chain, with a 90%+ chance over the high terrain of western
and northern NM. That being said, the probability of 2"+ is quite
low, with the Northwest Highlands the only area showing greater than
a 20% chance. This does not mean that flash flooding is not a
concern though because the training of storms will more than likely
result in areas with 2"+. The flash flood risk Wednesday will be
maximized along the Continental Divide where there will be up to 350
units of IVT (Integrated Vapor Transport) moving south to north
along the Divide.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 232 AM MDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Moisture transport will only ramp up Wednesday night into Thursday
as a disturbance rotating around the west coast trough sweeps
through the Four Corners region. At this point, soils across much of
western and central NM will be saturated and it will take less
rainfall than normal to produce flash flooding. Given the large
scale forcing and moisture transport, showers and storms will
continue into the overnight and even into the morning hours. This is
expected to limit afternoon destabilization and therefore rainfall
rates, but the overall coverage of showers and storms will remain
high regardless of potential rates. Temperatures will remain
seasonably cool, with even chilly temperatures in the mountains
where temps will struggle to reach 70 in the afternoon and should
drop into the 40s at night.

The west coast trough funneling moisture into the desert southwest
will begin to lift northwestward into the northern Rockies Friday,
tilting the moisture plume to become more zonal and cutting off the
subtropical tap. However, there will still be plenty of lingering
moisture for showers and storms through Friday, with a more stark
drier trend on Saturday. The downtick will be short-lived since the
same trough exiting into the High Plains could send a backdoor front
into eastern NM that replenishes moisture once again.

The subtropical jet stream is forecast to become more active next
week, favoring the continuation of wet weather over the desert
southwest. While technically still part of Monsoon Season, this
transitional pattern is much more Fall-like in nature with more
active westerlies.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1131 PM MDT Mon Sep 14 2026

A broad area of showers and storms will focus over southwest and
south central areas through the night, with isolated activity
elsewhere. Coverage will generally decrease through the overnight
hours then trend higher again around 18Z Tuesday. Widespread
showers and storms will favor central and western areas, with
storm motions around 10 knots towards the north. Confidence for
the specific time window that TAF sites will be impacted is low
at this time and additional mention of storms may be added for the
evening and overnight period in future updates.

Patchy MVFR to IFR cigs and visibility may develop in portions of
western and central NM tonight into mid-morning Tuesday.
Confidence in coverage is low, but areas that received a soaking
rainfall Monday will be favored.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 232 AM MDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Numerous showers and storms are likely each day through Friday
around central and northern New Mexico, with the most widespread
activity generally focusing along the Continental Divide. Confidence
is high for widespread wetting rainfall and many locations, even
lower elevations, will likely have multi-day rainfall totals
exceeding one inch. Showers and storms will generally move from
south to north each day, with storm motions becoming faster late
week as the region comes under the influence of a trough over the
west coast.

Rain chances will be highest during the afternoon and evening each
day, but at least scattered convection is forecast to continue
during the overnight and morning hours each day, particularly
Wednesday and Thursday. Thunderstorms may produce gusty and erratic
outflow winds, with gusty south winds favored given the storm
motions. Excellent humidity recoveries are expected each of the next
several mornings areawide and some locations may even have patchy
morning fog later in the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  81  58  75  55 /  20  50  80  80
Dulce...........................  78  46  74  45 /  30  80  90 100
Cuba............................  75  51  73  50 /  30  60  90  90
Gallup..........................  76  50  72  49 /  40  40  90  80
El Morro........................  72  49  71  48 /  50  50  90  80
Grants..........................  74  52  74  51 /  70  50 100  90
Quemado.........................  73  54  73  53 /  80  40 100  80
Magdalena.......................  74  57  75  57 /  70  50  80  90
Datil...........................  71  54  71  53 /  70  50 100  90
Reserve.........................  78  55  78  54 /  60  40  90  90
Glenwood........................  82  59  84  58 /  40  60  90  90
Chama...........................  72  47  69  48 /  30  80  90 100
Los Alamos......................  75  57  74  56 /  60  70  90 100
Pecos...........................  77  53  79  53 /  70  70 100  90
Cerro/Questa....................  75  51  74  52 /  40  60  70  90
Red River.......................  65  44  65  45 /  50  60  80  90
Angel Fire......................  70  39  71  39 /  70  60 100  90
Taos............................  78  49  77  49 /  40  60  80  90
Mora............................  74  51  74  51 /  80  70 100  90
Espanola........................  82  56  81  55 /  60  60  90  90
Santa Fe........................  77  56  78  56 /  50  70  90  90
Santa Fe Airport................  79  55  79  54 /  40  70  90  90
Albuquerque Foothills...........  80  61  81  60 /  20  60  90  90
Albuquerque Heights.............  81  60  81  58 /  20  50  80  90
Albuquerque Valley..............  82  59  83  57 /  20  50  80  90
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  81  62  81  60 /  20  50  80  90
Belen...........................  83  58  83  56 /  30  50  80  90
Bernalillo......................  83  60  81  58 /  20  60  90 100
Bosque Farms....................  82  56  82  54 /  20  50  80  90
Corrales........................  82  60  82  58 /  20  50  80  90
Los Lunas.......................  82  58  82  56 /  20  50  80  90
Placitas........................  80  60  79  59 /  30  60  90  90
Rio Rancho......................  82  61  81  59 /  20  50  80 100
Socorro.........................  84  62  85  61 /  40  60  70  80
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  75  54  77  53 /  30  70  90  90
Tijeras.........................  76  57  77  56 /  30  60  90  90
Edgewood........................  77  53  78  52 /  40  60 100  90
Moriarty/Estancia...............  79  50  81  49 /  40  60 100  90
Clines Corners..................  76  53  78  53 /  50  70 100  80
Mountainair.....................  78  54  79  54 /  40  60  90  80
Gran Quivira....................  78  55  79  55 /  30  50  80  80
Carrizozo.......................  83  60  81  59 /  30  50  80  70
Ruidoso.........................  76  56  77  56 /  60  50 100  70
Capulin.........................  70  52  76  55 /  20  70  70  50
Raton...........................  78  52  80  53 /  40  70  90  70
Springer........................  82  53  82  54 /  50  60  90  70
Las Vegas.......................  78  54  77  54 /  60  80 100  90
Clayton.........................  78  57  85  62 /   5  50  20  40
Roy.............................  79  56  81  58 /  20  80  70  70
Conchas.........................  90  61  88  63 /  30  80  60  70
Santa Rosa......................  87  60  85  61 /  50  80  60  70
Tucumcari.......................  92  62  89  63 /  40  80  40  50
Clovis..........................  92  63  89  63 /  20  80  20  20
Portales........................  93  64  91  65 /  30  80  20  20
Fort Sumner.....................  92  63  89  63 /  30  60  40  60
Roswell.........................  95  65  92  66 /  30  50  20  40
Picacho.........................  86  59  85  60 /  80  50  80  60
Elk.............................  84  58  82  58 /  70  50  80  60

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from 11 AM MDT this morning through this evening for
NMZ208-209-241.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...16