504
FXAK68 PAFC 140228
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
528 PM AKST Thu Nov 13 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3:
Tonight through Sunday Morning)...

A front from the Bering Sea will push over Kodiak Island tonight,
bringing small craft to gale force winds to surrounding marine
areas such as Shelikof Straight, southern Cook Inlet, and much of
the southwestern Gulf of Alaska. Precipitation will mostly fall as
rain at sea level, but may see some snow on the initial onset
tonight. The front will bring some snow and elevated winds to the
eastern Kenai Peninsula on Friday, but its parent low diving into
the southern Gulf will help keep impacts mostly coastal before
dissipating by Saturday morning.

Clearing skies over the Cook Inlet and Susitna Valley regions
will likely return for Saturday as a weak transient ridge moves
over the region in between systems. This may bring one more night
of cooler temperatures before a gradual warming trend into early
next week.

A strong low pressure from the Pacific will cross the Aleutian
Chain sometime Sunday morning. Model guidance is handling this
system extremely poorly, giving little confidence on exact timing
of impacts. We do expect the front associated with it to bring
rain and elevated winds to Kodiak Island on Sunday before
progressing across the North Gulf coast by Monday.

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

Clear skies and cold temperatures persist across interior
Southwest Alaska this afternoon. Similar to last night, expect
temperatures to drop back into the single digits to near zero
degrees tonight for the northern Kuskokwim Delta and Lower
Kuskokwim Valley as mainly clear skies continue overnight under
the influence of an upper level ridge.

Farther west in the Bering, the first of two ~990 mb lows has
moved to about 150 miles to the southwest of the Pribilof Islands
while the other low lifts out of the North Pacific towards the
Alaska Peninsula tonight. Upper level dynamics show the lows
aligning with a digging trough moving across the southern Bering,
allowing both lows to deepen to around 980 mb as they consolidate
into a large, complex surface low by Friday morning. Deterministic
models continue to struggle to come into perfect agreement on the
exact placement of each low center, though agreement on the
overall strength and wind field has improved. Confidence has
become high that the Central Aleutians, Eastern Aleutians, and
southern AKPen will see widespread gales beginning this evening
and persisting into Friday afternoon. Storm force gusts will be
possible for the Eastern Aleutians Friday morning into early
Friday afternoon as the system begins to pivot eastwards into the
Gulf. Widespread rainfall overspreads the Pribilof Islands and
AKPen this evening, while light snow totaling 1-2" will be
possible along the Bristol Bay coast Friday as the front nudges
towards the Mainland. Strengthening offshore winds Friday morning
along the coast may lead to periods of blowing snow and decreased
visibilities.

The pattern in the Bering remains active heading into the
weekend, with a gale force front entering the western Bering
Friday into Saturday with its parent low tracking and stalling to
the north of Shemya. As this front tracks across the Bering and
reaches the Pribilof Islands, a potent upper level shortwave
supports a stronger, more compact low quickly lifting out of the
North Pacific for Saturday night into Sunday morning. Models have
come into better agreement on the low potentially strengthening to
storm force as it tracks across the Eastern Aleutians, but
confidence continues to lack in the timing of the system. The
ECMWF and Canadian continue to be the fastest solutions bringing
the low to the Aleutian Chain as early as Saturday night into
early Sunday morning, while the NAM and GFS slower at mid to late
Sunday morning into Sunday afternoon. Regardless of timing,
elevated south to southeasterly winds are expected across the
Eastern Aleutians, AKPen, Pribilof Islands, and coastal Southwest
Alaska as the storm progresses north in the Bering. Please stay
tuned to the forecast as details continue to become clearer in the
next couple of days.

-JH

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Monday through
Thursday)...

Southcentral will be under an upper level ridge before a strong
North Pacific system moves in from the southwest and displaces the
ridge into Canada. A broad upper level low becomes established
over the central Bering. Surface lows are embedded along the
front and rotating around the pivotal feature in the Bering,
merge by Monday afternoon. Gales to storm-force winds and heavy
precipitation are expected across the southern Bering Sea,
including the Aleutian Island Chain and Pribilofs before before
weakening Monday afternoon. This will be quickly followed by the
front of a second North Pacific system, which moves into the
southern Bering by Tuesday morning. The parent low moves from over
Kamchatka into the western Bering by Thursday morning. The exact
path of the system remains uncertain due to poor agreement
between the major global models. A 970 mb surface low embedded
along its front crosses the Alaska Peninsula Thursday morning,
bringing more gale to storm-force wind and heavy rain across the
Alaska Peninsula and the Southwest part of the state.


&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist. Very light
snow showers around the Anchorage bowl will continue to diminish
this morning. Pockets of fog or low stratus are possible again
tonight, but coverage and confidence is too low for TAF inclusion
at this point.

&&


$$