873
FXAK68 PAFC 101348
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
448 AM AKST Wed Dec 10 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Key Messages:

- Gusty winds will continue through the extended forecast. Peak
  timing for this next round is Wed afternoon through Thu morning.
  Winds diminish for a brief period between Thu night through Fri
  morning. Winds increase again Fri night with lower confidence
  with how long those winds will remain elevated.

- Cold temperatures and wind chills are expected to persist until
  at least the end of this week. A cold advisory is currently in
  effect through Fri afternoon for the Copper River Basin and
  through the Thompson Pass area.

- You can reduce your risk of hypothermia or frost bite by
  protecting your skin from exposure and wearing appropriate
  clothing while outdoors. Keep emergency supplies with you in
  your home and while traveling whenever possible. Consider
  wearing your cold weather gear while you are driving longer
  distances through frigid temperatures. Know the signs of
  hypothermia and check on others.

Discussion:

The forecast remains on track with a blocking ridge stubbornly
nestled over the Bering Sea. Northerly flow with a broad upper
trough remains across mainland Alaska and into the Panhandle and
Canada. Shortwave troughs will remain the key player in the timing
and amplification of the winds and cold air across Alaska,
including Southcentral.

Winds calmed down across Southcentral Alaska this past afternoon
including in the Matanuska Valley. Due to the lower winds and
another push of cold air from the north, low temperatures have
cooled into the negatives and single digits across Anchorage, the
Mat-Su Valley, and the Kenai Peninsula. The Copper River Basin
including Glennallen to McCarthy and Thompson Pass saw overnight
temperatures of minus 40F and colder. Due to these very cold
conditions, the Cold Weather Advisory has been extended until 4 PM
Friday and now includes Thompson Pass.

A weaker upper trough is moving into Southcentral this morning.
Expect wind speeds to increase later today through gap areas
including Valdez and around Kodiak Island. Since midnight, winds
have markedly increased through Seward and Whittier/Passage Canal.
The Matanuska Valley will also see increased winds, but these
will not nearly be as strong as the previous event. Gusts of 40 to
50 mph will be possible though. Anchorage and the Kenai Peninsula
will likely be breezy with gusts to 25 mph possible. These
effects will last through Thursday morning. Temperatures will
remain very cold as the Arctic air mass remains in place.

For Friday night, another stronger upper trough descends into
Southcentral. There are slight differences with the spatial
extent of this trough that would influence the resulting impacts.
With reasonably high confidence however, the wind speeds will once
again crank up throughout Southcentral. The Matanuska Valley
could see gusty winds with this trough. The Valdez gaps including
Valdez itself is another area that could see gusty winds. This
trough could potentially bring stronger and more prolonged winds
than what we are expected to experience later tonight into
tomorrow morning. Cloud cover will likely increase with this
event, so temperatures across the area could be relatively warmer,
especially in the Copper River Basin. However, another push of
cold air is expected Saturday and our weather regime is appearing
to stick around a bit longer.

Rux/JAR

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1
through 3/This morning through Friday)...

A blocking ridge remains firmly entrenched over the Bering Sea,
maintaining dry and cold conditions over Southwest Alaska and the
eastern Bering Sea. Clear skies continue across much of Southwest
Alaska this morning, except for a low stratus deck and snow
flurries quickly moving south across the coastal areas of the
Kuskokwim Delta through early this morning as a shortwave digs
south across the region. Breezy northerly winds along the
Kuskokwim Delta coast have picked up early this morning and are
expected to continue through this morning as colder, drier air
works in from the north behind the passing shortwave. The Bering
ridge will continue to amplify throughout the day today, forcing
this trough and a reinforcing shot of Arctic air southward across
Southwest AK and the Alaska Peninsula. This will lead to a period
of strong and gusty northerly winds, especially through bays and
passes along the Alaska peninsula this morning through Thursday
morning. The strongest of these northerly winds are expected to
peak this afternoon and evening. The ridge will then quickly build
eastward toward Southwest AK this evening into Thursday, leading
to diminishing winds and falling temperatures.

Meanwhile, storm systems tracking to the west of the upper level
ridge will bring southerly winds and periods of rain to the far
western Aleutian Islands, including Shemya. One storm will flatten
the ridge as it tracks into the Arctic on Thursday. While most of
this will head eastward across northern AK, a trailing cold front
and weak short-wave will move into Southwest AK Thursday night
through Friday, likely bringing areas of light snow. There might
be just enough warm air moving off the Bering to produce rain or
freezing rain for portions of the Kuskokwim Delta coast, but
confidence in this is low. In any case, precipitation should be
brief and light. Cold air advection will bring another round of
winds Friday and into the weekend for portions of Southwest AK and
the Alaska Peninsula.

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through
Tuesday)...

This weekend, an expansive area of high pressure, stronger than
1040 mb at the surface, will be centered over the northern Bering
Sea and extend across Western/Interior Alaska and much of the rest
of the Bering Sea. This high pressure will aid in pushing Arctic
Air south across the state, causing a trough to dig across the
southern mainland into the Gulf of Alaska. This will bring similar
conditions to last weekend, with potential for another round of
high winds out of gaps and mountain passes, along with continued
cold temperatures and wind chills. A developing complex surface
low in the Gulf of Alaska could retrograde just enough early next
week to bring some light snow to the north Gulf coast and parts of
the Copper River Basin, but forecast confidence is low at this
time. Otherwise, the entire forecast area is expected to remain
dry, and this could continue to be the case for the next several
weeks as this general pattern of cold, dry weather looks to stick
around.

Quesada

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light northerly winds will persist.
Northerly winds will increase to 10 to 15 kt this afternoon
through mid-day tomorrow before decreasing tomorrow night.

&&


$$