263
FXAK68 PAFC 300101
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
501 PM AKDT Wed Jul 29 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

The current weather pattern remains on track with upper level
ridging pushing into Southcentral. Clear, dry and warm conditions
will persist over the next several days as the high pressure
builds. Daytime high temperatures will reach into the upper 60`s
to low 70`s along coastal regions and mid to upper 70`s further
inland. Overnight temperatures will be cooler, with many areas
dropping into the 40`s and few locations in the Susitna Valley,
western Kenai Peninsula, and Copper River Basin possibly seeing
early morning temperatures in the upper 30`s should skies remain
clear overnight.

Chance for low stratus and/or patchy fog early tomorrow morning
for coastal portions of Cook Inlet, Valdez, and Cordova. Low lying
valleys in the Susitna Valley and Copper River Basin may also see
early morning patchy fog.

KM

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE BERING
SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Today through Saturday)...

Satellite imagery this afternoon shows much of the Bering Sea
locked in with fog and low stratus. Fog is also draped along the
Bering side of the Alaska Peninsula to as far west as Dutch
Harbor/Unalaska. Most of these areas along the Alaska Peninsula
and Eastern Aleutians have seen dense fog scatter out with daytime
heating and diurnal mixing, but fog looks to return to these
areas for Thursday morning. Despite dense fog for much of the
morning for places like King Salmon, clearing skies have allowed
for temperatures to steadily warm into the upper 60s and 70s. The
main driver of the fog is an upper level ridge axis that extends
from the North Pacific to over the Eastern Aleutians and Alaska
Peninsula, and over Southwest Alaska.

With Southwest Alaska continuing to stay quite warm, a Special
Weather Statement remains in effect through Friday for above
normal temperatures for Southwest Alaska where daytime highs are
expected to top out in the 70 to 75 degree range. However, with so
much subsidence under the ridge through Friday, the diurnal swing
in temperatures will be quite large (25 degrees change or so)
with overnight lows dipping into the low to mid 40s.

On the heels of this ridge is an upper level trough and its
associated surface frontal low moving northeastward out of the
North Pacific. With this system, an impressive theta-e ridge is
moving along and ahead of the attendant front, which aligns with
enhanced lift from its 500 mb digging trough and the left exit
region (area of positive/cyclonic vorticity advection) of a 300 mb
jet streak. This instability has been enough to kick off quite a
few lightning strikes over the North Pacific, and the marine
lightning threat will track eastward with time as the low/front
progresses eastward across the Aleutian Chain. For mariners, this
lightning hazard has been reflected in marine forecasts with
"Isolated Thunderstorms" wording. Embedded thunderstorms within
areas of convection ahead of the front are on track to arrive to
Amchitka and Adak by early Thursday morning, and then approach
Unalaska by Thursday afternoon.

The digging trough moving over the Aleutians kicks the ridge to
over Southcentral Alaska by Thursday evening, allowing for
rainfall to track eastward across the Eastern Aleutians and Alaska
Peninsula through Friday afternoon. By Friday afternoon, a second
low approaches the Western Aleutians with another strong (and
potentially stronger) theta-e ridge, so a second round of marine
lightning is possible starting Friday afternoon as well. To the
east, the upper level high becomes mostly stationary over
Southcentral, which blocks the Bering low from moving any farther
east than the Alaska Peninsula and instead brings the low
southeastward and out of the region and into the North Pacific.

-AM



&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)...

Increasingly active weather is expected through the long term
forecast period as the pattern begins to become more progressive.
Warm and dry conditions persist across Southcentral through the
end of the weekend before the upper level ridge begins to depart
east over the Panhandle and western Canada. Farther upstream, a
digging Arctic trough interacting with a robust shortwave emerging
off of Kamchatka on Sunday brings a round of widespread rainfall
and increased winds over the Aleutian Chain and Bering Sea. By
late Sunday into Monday morning, this system overspreads the
Alaska Peninsula and Southwest Alaska with widespread rain and
strong southerly flow through early next week as the Arctic upper
low drops south into western Alaska. Conditions similarly
deteriorate across Kodiak Island and Southcentral Monday into
Tuesday as moist, southwesterly flow allows rainfall to fill in
across most of the region. Models begin to diverge on the overall
progression of the upper low over the Interior and the shortwave
over the Bering by the end of the long term period, although
generally unsettled and showery weather lingering through midweek
continues to look likely regardless of which solution plays out.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

&&


$$