118
FXAK68 PAFC 030228
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
528 PM AKST Tue Dec 2 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: This
afternoon through Friday afternoon)...

While the worst conditions have largely ended for much of
Southcentral Alaska, several Winter Weather Advisories remain in
effect through 7 AM tomorrow morning:

* Along the Parks Highway from Houston north to Talkeetna: Periods
  of light snow/freezing rain continue through tomorrow morning.
* Northern Copper Valley (Richardson Highway mile markers 150 to
  200) and Northern Susitna Valley (north of Talkeetna): Up to 5
  more inches of snow.

Overall, the forecast aligned pretty well with conditions observed
today. Freezing rain tends to be a borderline phenomenon that is
difficult to forecast, but forecast confidence was unusually high
with this event. There were a few areas where the temperature
forecast was a bit off (observed temperatures were lower than
forecast for Kenai Peninsula and higher than forecast in lower
Matanuska Valley), leading to a few areas where there was less
forecast lead time or where precipitation was more rain than
freezing rain. Still, the impacts seemed to line up fairly well
with expectations.

Looking ahead, another front moves northeastward up the Gulf
towards the Southcentral Mainland. Much of the precipitation will
be focused from Eastern Prince William Sound into the Copper River
Basin as rain/snow, but some precipitation could make it over the
mountains and into Western Kenai Peninsula, Anchorage, and/or the
Lower Mat-Su. If this happens, there is the potential for another
light round of rain or freezing rain. The chance of rain or
freezing rain would be around 20-30% sometime tomorrow morning
through the early afternoon, though timing is uncertain.

Thursday will mark the transition day for Southcentral AK as we
move from this warm pattern featuring repeat freezing rain threats
to a much colder, drier pattern. Several model solutions are
generating light precipitation across a wide swatch of
Southcentral as a trough dropping down from the Arctic interacts
with the moisture in place from the pre-existing frontal zone.
Confidence is admittedly low for Thursday precip, but conditions
may align for a shot of snow for many areas before the intrusion
of significantly colder, drier air.

-Chen/Brown

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

The strong low in the Bering is currently located south of the
Pribilof Islands. This low is bringing storm force winds in the
Pribilof Islands and gale force winds along the Kuskokwim Delta
coast. The low is also advecting warm air and moisture into the
Southwest Mainland. This warm air has allowed temperatures to warm
above freezing aloft while temperatures remain below freezing in
the much of Kuskokwim Delta and the lower Kuskokwim Valley.
However, the whole column of temperatures remained below freezing
along the southwest and west coast of the Kuskokwim Delta and
Nunivak Island. This, along with gusty winds is allowing for
blizzard conditions for these regions. Meanwhile, Bristol Bay is
warm enough for precipitation types to remain as rain. Gap
regions in the Eastern Aleutians and the Alaska Peninsula are
seeing gusty storm force winds due to favorable wind directions
(southeasterly).

By Wednesday, the low will be weakening, but gusty winds in the
Bering and precipitation in Bristol Bay will continue.
Precipitation chances in the Kuskokwim Delta will significantly
decrease, but some snow/freezing rain showers may still be
possible. Due to this chance, the Ice Storm Warning is still in
effect until 9 AM Wednesday. By Thursday, both winds and
precipitation chances will decrease as a drier and cold air mass
moves in from the north. This Arctic air mass will quickly drop
temperatures across Southwest Alaska, with lows reaching the
single digits in the Kuskokwim Delta and the teens in Bristol Bay
by Thursday night. Also, winds will turn northeasterly. By
Friday, pressure gradients will tighten in the Kuskokwim Delta,
leading to an increase in wind speeds. Looking ahead to the
weekend, this air mass will further infiltrate as an Arctic Low
moves into Southwest Alaska. Winds will become gusty in the
Kuskokwim Delta with temperatures falling below zero. Due to the
combination of gusty winds and below zero temperatures, extreme
freezing spray is possible from Nunivak Island north and west to
Cape Newenham. A Marine Weather Statement has been issued with
more details on this potential.

-JAR


&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7 - Friday through Monday)...

Model differences in the long term forecast continue to decrease
forecast confidence, beginning over the weekend and into early
next week. Greatest confidence is in the arrival of an arctic air
mass dropping southward into Southwest and Southcentral Alaska
through the long term period. Gusty northeasterly winds will
accompany the colder air mass with potential for wind chills well
below zero, especially across the Kuskokwim Delta. Winds offshore
of the Kuskokwim Delta coast may also pose a threat of extreme
freezing spray for mariners near the ice edge.

Uncertainty increases more substantially for the Southcentral
forecast. A developing area of low pressure will take shape over
the weekend, though where exactly the low deepens is in question.
A low across the northern Gulf and closer to the coast will
certainly equate to increasing snow for coastal mountains and even
interior Southcentral. A low further from the coast and possibly
further east, will mean drier conditions with colder low
temperatures. For now, the signal is for below normal temperatures
across both Southwest and Southcentral Alaska in the long term.


-BL

&&
.AVIATION...

PANC...Low-level wind shear will continue with light northerlies
near the surface and southeasterly winds aloft until a weak
Turnagain Arm wind brings light southeasterly winds at the surface
into the terminal this evening. Winds could gust as high as 20
knots but could be quite variable/intermittent. Winds relax to
light out of the north again by early Wednesday morning. Ceilings
generally remain VFR above 5000 ft through Wednesday morning. At
that point, chances for light precipitation return.

Temperatures cool back below freezing tonight, meaning
precipitation would likely be in the form of another round of
freezing rain, with some potential for light snow instead.
Accumulations are likely to be limited to a light glaze. Patchy
fog is also possible tonight, which could drop ceilings/visibility
to IFR. Chances for freezing rain last into the day on Wednesday,
with more widespread fog potential and therefore increasing
chances for IFR cigs/vsby by Wednesday evening.

Quesada

&&


$$