166
FXAK68 PAFC 091427
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
527 AM AKST Tue Dec 9 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Key Messages:

The forecast remains on track as the weather gradually becomes
less active today. The primary concerns continue to be for strong
winds and dangerously low wind chills. Temperatures will become
even colder through the week as a second cold air mass descends
into Southcentral.

Active Warnings and Advisories:

A Cold Weather Advisory remains in effect for the Copper River
Basin until 4PM for very cold wind chills as low as 40 to 50
below.

Discussion:

Although gusty winds through the typical north-south terrain gaps
(the mountain valley passes and coast) will likely continue, the
wind speeds are expected to diminish today into Wednesday morning
as the upper trough moves into the eastern Gulf. The next upper
level shortwave trough arrives into Southcentral Wednesday
morning. Most locations will see a return to breezy conditions,
increasing gradually for Wednesday afternoon. It won`t be until
the overnight into Thursday morning when the strongest surge of
winds would return. The trough exits east Thursday night and high
pressure begins to build in from west to east. Winds begin to
decrease again for Friday.

Temperatures will continue to remain cold for the rest of this
week. Though the risk of wind chill diminishes, ambient
temperatures will still be dangerously cold, thus similar cold
weather risks will remain. This cold is not showing any signs of
ending with this pattern remaining for the foreseeable future.
However, model agreement decreases along with forecast confidence
going into Friday as another trough dips into Southcentral. This
could bring snow to the higher elevations along the Alaska Range
and the Wrangell mountains. Breezy north appear likely to continue
through the rest of this week and weekend.

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: This morning through Friday morning)...

Cold temperatures and dry conditions will continue across the
Southwestern Mainland through much of this week. Although winds
have relaxed across Southwest Alaska, cold wind chills of 20 to 30
below zero will be commonplace this week as the cold airmass is
in firm control. The coldest of the apparent temperatures will be
felt during nighttime and early mornings. A shortwave dropping in
from the north may clip northern portions of the Kuskokwim Valley
Thursday night into Friday morning bringing very light snow to the
area, while relatively warmer air across the Bering Sea pushes
into Southwest Alaska to provide a brief respite from the bitterly
cold temperatures.

The next front/low combinations enter the western Bering this
afternoon into Wednesday morning, bringing a round of rainfall and
potentially some gale-force winds to the Western Aleutians.
Models are in fairly good agreement on the idea that the system
remains mainly confined to the Western Aleutians and the western
Bering as the strong upper level ridge remains centered over the
Aleutian Chain through midweek.

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)...

The long term starts out with a deep blocking high over the Bering
Sea that will amplify as a strong upper level shortwave and arctic
airmass drops south over the state. This will lead to more of the
same conditions for the southern Mainland with potential for high
winds out of all of the north-south oriented mountain passes and
coastal gaps from the AKPen east into Southcentral. The main
weather threat will be cold wind chills and ambient temperatures
in addition to the strong winds. Virtually the entire forecast
area will remain dry (possibly for a few more weeks), but some
light snow is possible along the northern faces of the Alaska
Range, Chugach and Kodiak Island. Some forecast guidance indicates
the surface low(s) may retrograde back towards the east on
Monday, which would bring some light snow, but overall forecast
confidence in this feature is low and the probabilities of this
are lower. Most things point to continued cold and breezy, with
areas of high winds possible.

-CJ

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions with gusty northerly winds continuing on the
west side of Anchorage through early this morning. Winds expected
to diminish significantly by the late morning. Winds decrease
significantly going eastward, such that there may be a noticeable
difference in speed on the west side of the terminal vs. east side
at times. By noon, winds will be light out of the north, and
remain so through Wednesday.

&&


$$