885
FXAK68 PAFC 071428
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
528 AM AKST Sun Dec 7 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Key Message:

Weather continues to remain active across Southcentral Alaska with
continued threats of snow, blowing snow, strong winds, and
dangerously low wind chills through the end of the weekend. The cold
airmass will be with us well beyond the end of the short term.

...Active Warnings and Advisories...

- A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for Northeast Kodiak
Island, including Kodiak City, Ouzinkie, and Port Lions through 3PM
this afternoon for 2 to 4 inches of additional snowfall and
continued blowing snow. Winds gusting up to 50 mph are possible for
the northern side of the island and up to 40 mph for Kodiak City.

- A High Wind Warning remains in effect for the Matanuska Valley
through 1PM Monday for 35 to 50 mph winds with gusts up to 80 mph.

- A Wind Advisory remains in effect for Anchorage and the NW Kenai
Peninsula through 1PM Monday. North winds of 20 to 25 mph with gusts
to 50 mph expected. Strongest winds expected along the Knik Arm from
Birchwood southwest, across North and West Anchorage, and along the
coast of the northern Cook Inlet, including Kenai and Nikiski.

- A Blizzard Warning has been extended through noon today for
Thompson Pass for ground blizzard conditions. Wind gusts as high as
50 mph expected. Wind chills as low as 35 below zero possible.

- A Blizzard Warning remains in effect for Broad Pass, Richardson
Highway from south of Isabel Pass to Paxson, and along the Tok
Cutoff from Mentasta Pass to north of Gakona through 9PM Sunday due
to blowing snow with winds gusting to 50 mph. Wind chills dip as low
as 15 to 25 degrees below zero, falling further to 25 to 40 degrees
below zero.

Discussion:

The overall weather pattern remains mostly unchanged this morning as
an arctic airmass remains entrenched over most of Alaska.
Temperatures have fallen into the negatives across much of inland
Southcentral where calm winds and clear skies have allowed for
efficient radiational cooling. Many of the areas experiencing strong
winds have seen temperatures remaining above zero but with below
zero wind chills. The dense arctic airmass has continued to produce
strong gap flow winds through north/south oriented gaps and passes,
as has been the case the past 24-36 hrs. The strongest of these
winds have been through the Matanuska Valley where wind gusts of up
to 90 mph were reported. Strong winds were also felt along the Knik
Arm to north and west Anchorage and along the coast of the northern
Cook Inlet, including Kenai and Nikiski. These winds have subsided
somewhat this morning but are expected to pick back up later this
morning, and continuing through tonight before gradually decreasing
through Monday.

Strong winds have also created ground blizzard concerns through many
of the passes, including Broad Pass, Isabel Pass, and Thompson Pass.
Webcams indicated winds gusting to 50 mph through Thompson Pass are
still created significant blowing and drifting of snow this morning
so have extended the Blizzard Warning through noon today. These
conditions through the passes should improve later today as snow in
these areas becomes more compacted and harder to loft, and winds
gradually subside. However, gusty winds will continue to produce
dangerous wind chills heading into the workweek.

Accumulating snowfall is still ongoing over northern Kodiak Island
this morning. Moderate to heavy snowfall fell most of the night with
strong winds reducing visibilities down to under a mile. Conditions
have improved, but another shortwave trough rotating around the
parent low will bring another round of moderate snow by late morning
to early afternoon with up to several more inches of accumulating
snowfall. By Monday morning the Gulf low will start to shear apart
and move eastwards. Looking at the upcoming workweek, the weather
looks to remain cold and mostly dry, with gap winds continuing for
favorable locations.

- PP

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

Very cold temperatures and gusty winds will continue across
Southwest Alaska. Wind chills 20 to 30 below zero are expected to
continue through at least Monday. Winds will gradually diminish
through the early portions of next week. Additionally, conditions
will remain dry and mostly clear through early next week. Periods
of snow showers will continue across the southern Alaska
Peninsula and Eastern Aleutians today, spreading west across the
rest of the Aleutians tonight and Monday.

With high pressure sitting over Southwest Alaska and much of the
Bering Sea/Aleutians, expected conditions to remain largely
unchanged through early/mid-week. Models are hinting at the next
front/low combinations entering the Western Bering/Aleutians
Wednesday morning. Though uncertainty remains, the consensus as
of now is for the front to remain mostly confined to the Western
Aleutians as the system brings some rain across the area and some
gale-force winds to the marine areas of the Western Aleutians by
early Wednesday morning.

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through Saturday)...

The long-term pattern continues to favor mostly cold and windy
conditions across the Southern Mainland Wednesday through
Saturday. Across Southwest Alaska and the Alaska Peninsula
(AKPEN), a trough digs south over the Peninsula as a ridge builds
and amplifies northward through the Bering. As the trough crosses
the AKPEN Wednesday, northerly winds and wind gusts will be
enhanced in its wake as colder air advects in. Cold, windy, and
dry conditions also persist across Mainland through Saturday.
While the Central and Eastern Aleutians remain dry and under the
influence of ridging during the long-term period, the Western
Aleutians will be behind the ridge and under the influence of
warmer southerly to southeasterly winds. A series of weak fronts
may clip the Western Aleutians bringing light rain to the area
through the period, along with gale-froce winds across the marine
areas of the Western Aleutians. The pattern for Southcentral also
remains mostly the same with a series of Gulf lows lifting to the
central Gulf through the long-term which will help to pull winds
through the favored gaps and passes; especially Valdez Narrows,
Resurrection Bay, Passage Canal, and the Matanuska Valley.
Moisture from the Gulf lows looks to mainly be confined to the
northern Gulf Coast Wednesday and Thursday as the interior remains
cold, dry, and windy at times.

&&
.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions along with strong northerly winds and gusts will
persist through Sunday. Wind speeds will remain relatively steady
today, with gusts to 45 mph out of the north through early this
afternoon. The strong winds will likely allow localized drifting
and blowing snow to continue. Winds to come down slightly, gusts
to 30 to 35 mph late this afternoon into Monday morning.

&&


$$