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FXAK68 PAFC 021432
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
532 AM AKST Tue Dec 2 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Thursday)...

Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect for as the next front
approaches Southcentral Alaska. Here are the Advisories in effect:
* Northern Kenai Peninsula: Freezing rain with near-freezing
  temperatures this morning. Light ice accumulation and icing on
  roads.
* Anchorage, Eagle River, and Lower Matanuska Valley (including
  Palmer and Wasilla): Rain/freezing rain coinciding with near-
  freezing temperatures this morning, bringing the potential for
  additional icing on roads.
* Along the Parks Highway from Houston north to Talkeetna: Snow
  and freezing rain from this morning through early tomorrow
  morning, with 2-4 inches of snow and up to 0.15 inches of ice.
* Northern Copper Valley (Richardson Highway mile markers 150 to
  200) and Northern Susitna Valley (north of Talkeetna): 6-8
  inches of snow from this morning through tomorrow morning.


As of 4am, precipitation, mostly in the form of rain, extending
along a front tied to a low in the Bering Sea is currently moving
north through the Kenai Peninsula. Temperatures remain below
freezing for many areas north of the current extend of
precipitation. With several observations noting surface
temperatures below freezing in the Soldotna, Kenai, Sterling, and
other portions of the northern Kenai Peninsula, have issued
another winter weather advisory for these locations due to the
threat of freezing rain. Precipitation will quickly shift through
these areas this morning, but morning commute conditions may be
slick.

Otherwise the forecast remains on track as that front is expected
to progress north into the remainder of the the Southcentral
Mainland. Without much wind or warm air advection, expect
temperatures to remain close to freezing This will be a problem
for the Anchorage area up to the Mat-Su Valleys as this rain will
be falling in areas where temperatures are near or below freezing,
and onto already-icy side and neighborhood streets. For Susitna
Valley in particular, localized colder conditions near Willow will
likely lead to higher ice accumulations, especially with heavier
precipitation in that area. Further north, upslope flow onto the
southern face of the Alaska Range will lead to higher snow
accumulations near Broad and Isabel Passes.

Another shortwave trough is expected to lift north through the
Gulf of Alaska Wednesday morning, bringing another round of
precipitation to Kodiak Island and coastal locations along the
Gulf of Alaska. Precipitation will be limited inland, but can`t
completely rule out additional precip at this time. Should any
additional precip fall in the `interior` of Southcentral, freezing
rain may once again be a threat .

Thursday will mark the transition day for Southcentral AK as we
move from this warm pattern featuring repeat freezing rain threats
to a much colder, drier pattern. Several model solutions are
generating light precipitation across a wide swatch of
Southcentral as a trough dropping down from the Arctic interacts
with the moisture in place from the pre-existing frontal zone.
Confidence is admittedly low for Thursday precip, but conditions
may align for a shot of snow for many areas before the intrusion
of significantly colder, drier air.

-Brown/Chen

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

A strong low pressure system has entered the southern Bering sea,
amplifying the pattern across most of the region. This will
greatly enhance the pressure gradient and bring widespread Gale
and Storm force winds to the Bering Sea and adjacent coasts.
Return of widespread precipitation across the Eastern Bering,
Alaska Peninsula, Eastern and Central Aleutians, and the Southwest
coast.

The focus for the weather through tonight is for the Kuskokwim
region where this storm pumps in warm air aloft over the cold
surface air. This is leading to the long-duration freezing rain
event for Bethel and along the Kuskokwim River into Wednesday
morning. Ice accumulations of one-half to three- quarters of an
inch for this time period, resulting in an Ice Storm Warning
currently in effect through Wednesday morning. To the north and
west of the Kuskokwim River in the Delta region, the arctic front
has stall out and created a significant thermal boundary. This is
expected to create Blizzard conditions for Nunivak and Nelson
Islands tomorrow. This change from freezing rain to snow/blowing
snow will likely be a sharp boundary, but Nunivak and Nelson
Islands are expected to see the worst of the blizzard conditions.

Additionally, the northeasterly winds in the Central Bering are
creating strong winds up to 80 mph across the Pribilof Islands.
As such, a High Wind Warning has been issued for the Pribilofs
through early this afternoon. By Wednesday, the low center will
still be in the Unalaska area, but will have weakened enough to
bring marine winds to Gale force and allow the temperatures over
the Kuskokwim region to fall below freezing at all levels of the
atmosphere which will end the freezing rain threat. The Bristol
Bay region will be slower to cool off and may keep precipitation
type as rain until Thursday, especially for coastal areas. After
Thursday, this the entire region will drastically cool down and
get quite cold for the weekend.

-CL

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7 - Friday through Monday)...

An initial trough should be lifting into Southcentral on Friday
with light to moderate rain pushing into the coastal mountains
and a chance for a rain/snow mix for interior locations of the
Copper Basin, Anchorage and the MatSu Valley. On a slightly more
optimistic note, the time period from Friday into the weekend may
bring an end to the unseasonably warmer temperatures Southcentral
and Southwest Alaska have been experiencing as of late. A
previously active pattern trough over the Aleutians is forecast to
become closed off, allowing an arctic trough over the Seward
Peninsula to dive southward into the southwest coast. Much cooler
temperatures over Canada, previously shunted east of the ALCAN
border will spill into interior Alaska Friday into early next
week. Ensemble guidance and deterministic models all show a broad
trough overspreading the Gulf of Alaska Saturday into Sunday, with
a closed surface low developing somewhere east of the Kenai
Peninsula, south of Prince William Sound. This will open the door
for various scenarios to play out, conditional on the exact
placement of the closed low. A low further east may allow colder
temperatures to spread across the region region more quickly while
a low further north might favor increasing snow chances for much
of Southcentral. Despite the uncertainties, a pattern change
appears likely during the long term forecast period with a
significant cool down in the not too distance future.

-BL

&&
.AVIATION...

PANC...Freezing rain will plague the Anchorage area this morning
as a front lifts through. Temperatures will gradually rise above
freezing this morning after 18z, around the same time
precipitation is expected to diminish. LLWS will be an issue for
much of the day as well until SE winds out of the Turnagain Arm
move in this afternoon or evening, of which there`s some
uncertainty with the timing.

Another wave may return precip back to the terminal Wednesday
morning, but confidence is low given large model uncertainty.
Should precip occur, temps are likely warm enough for all snow,
but can`t rule out some light snow or freezing rain.

&&


$$