228
FXAK68 PAFC 120043
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
443 PM AKDT Sun Oct 11 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Sunday
through Tuesday)...

An active upper-level pattern remains in place across
Southcentral Alaska through the beginning of the workweek as a
broad trough and embedded shortwaves continue to influence the
region. Model guidance generally agrees on the overall pattern,
though differences remain in the timing and placement of
individual disturbances.

For the rest of today into Monday, upper-level energy moving
across southern Alaska will maintain chances for precipitation
across portions of Southcentral, particularly along the northern
Gulf Coast, Prince William Sound, and the eastern Kenai
Peninsula. Rain is favored at lower elevations, with snow possible
across higher terrain and mountain passes. Farther inland,
including Anchorage, Mat-Su Valleys, and Copper River Basin,
precipitation is expected to be more scattered.

Heading into Monday night and Tuesday, additional shortwave energy
rotating through the broader trough will maintain unsettled
pattern. Coastal areas will remain favored for precipitation,
while inland locations may see periods of drier weather between
disturbances.

Attention then turns toward the middle of the week as model
guidance indicates a potentially stronger system developing and
approaching southern Alaska. While there is general agreement that
additional upper-level energy will influence the region,
differences remain in the strength, timing, and eventual track of
the system. These differences will be important in determining the
potential for stronger winds and heavier precipitation across
Southcentral later in the week.

Just outside the forecast period, Wednesday through Friday, the
potential exists for a more organized storm system to impact
portions of Southcentral and the northern Gulf Coast. Depending on
the eventual track and strength of the low, impacts could include
gusty winds, periods of heavier precipitation, and snow across
higher elevations. However, uncertainty remains in model guidance
regarding the track, timing, and strength of the system.

-LM

&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

The large, occluded Bering low continues to spin to the south of
Saint Lawrence Island this afternoon where it will remain nearly
stationary as it weakens and dissipates through early this week.
In the wake of the low, pockets of northwesterly to westerly small
craft winds across the southern Bering Sea dissipate through
Monday morning. Similarly, the convective showery regime lingers
across the Bering Sea, Aleutians, and Southwest Alaska Monday into
Tuesday.

The pattern begins to progress through the first half of this
week with the eventual breakdown of the stagnant troughing as a
much more robust shortwave reaches the Western Aleutians Monday
afternoon. As this shortwave drives south, north-northwesterly
winds will reinvigorate across the western Bering and Aleutians
from approximately Shemya to Adak Monday night through Tuesday.
There is high confidence (80 to 90 percent) in high-end small
craft winds, with a smaller chance (10 to 20 percent) for periods
of sustained gales. By late Tuesday, ridging begins to nudge into
the western Bering as the shortwave further amplifies in the North
Pacific and merges with a weak wave originating from the south of
Kamchatka. The resulting low pressure system south of the Alaska
Peninsula deepens by late Tuesday into Wednesday as it pivots
north. The primary forecast challenge continues to be the track of
this low and how close it comes in proximity to the Alaska
Peninsula. Regardless of the precise storm track, confidence
continues to increase for the gale-force front to reach the
coastal waters to the south of the Alaska Peninsula by Wednesday
afternoon. Meanwhile, Southwest Alaska slowly trends cooler
through the end of the short term, with overnight lows dropping to
near or below freezing Tuesday and Wednesday morning area wide as
both cloud cover and precipitation chances decrease.

&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)...

The long term forecast starts off on Thursday with a strong low
south of the Alaska Peninsula tracking towards the Gulf of Alaska.
Strong northerly gap winds persist over the Unalaska and Alaska
Peninsula. The winds will be further enhanced by cold air
advection. As the low tracks into the Gulf of Alaska, strong
easterly winds impact Kodiak and the gap regions around the
island starting Thursday morning. A barrier jet may also set up
along the Southcentral Coast. The strength of these winds will
depend of the track and strength of the low, which are still
uncertain. Rain and snow at higher elevations will push into
Southwest and coastal Southcentral Alaska with this low. Friday
sees the low weaken as it continues its track eastward. Wind
speeds will diminish in both Southwest and Southcentral Alaska as
the low moves east and weakens. Rain and snow will become more
scattered as well. Meanwhile, ridging develops over the Bering,
leading to calmer winds and potentially low stratus or fog.
Much uncertainty is present on Saturday regarding the location of
the low in the Gulf. If it remains closer to the coast, rain and
higher elevation snow is likely, but if it moves east, drier
conditions will prevail. On Sunday, a frontal system of some kind
moves into the Bering, which will lead to rain and elevated winds
potentially in the Shemya and Adak areas. Southcentral is too
uncertain to get a clear picture on Sunday for now.

-JAR

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...
Periods of rain showers will persist into Monday, but there should
be an overall tapering off in frequency of the showers. Ceilings
will likely be predominantly MVFR through tomorrow morning, with
improvements to VFR (below 5000 ft) between rounds of rain
showers. Winds should remain south to southeast into Monday with
gusts to around 15 kt through this evening.

&&

$$