603
FXAK68 PAFC 260012
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
412 PM AKDT Tue Mar 25 2025


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A stationary low off the coast of Kodiak Island coupled with a
weaker low near Yakutat continues to bring moisture to the Kenai
Peninsula and Kodiak Island through Thursday. This evening, a wave
of steady precipitation will push into the Kenai Peninsula with a
separate one Wednesday afternoon/evening. QPF amounts in each
wave will be light and heaviest north of Seward in the Eastern
Kenai mountains. Separate, smaller waves of moisture move through
southern Kenai Peninsula and the Island of Kodiak this evening
into tomorrow afternoon. Again, QPF amounts will be light in
these waves too. As this stationary low dissipates, northwesterly
winds through the Barren Islands are expected through most of
Thursday resulting in gale force winds. Dry conditions will
continue through Thursday elsewhere in Southcentral and Prince
William Sound.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3 - Tonight through Friday)...

Between high pressure in the central/eastern Bering Sea and a
broad area of low pressure in the Gulf of Alaska, cold northerly
flow continues to stream across the eastern Bering Sea and
Southwest Alaska this afternoon. With the exit of a strong upper-
level low into the North Pacific last night, gap winds across the
Alaska Peninsula have come down somewhat, but winds below gale
force will continue to filter south through Wednesday night.
Additionally, a field of stratocumulus will continue to wring out
moisture in the form of light upslope snow showers along the
peninsula south of Port Heiden. Weak shortwaves lifting up from
the Gulf of Alaska brings a bit of warmer air and moisture which
may allow some light snow showers to impinge on the Lake Iliamna
area and reach as far west as even King Salmon tonight into
tomorrow. Otherwise, expect dry and mostly clear conditions
across Southwest Alaska through the end of the week.

Out west, a front pushing through the central Aleutians this
afternoon reaches the Pribilof Islands and eastern Aleutians
tonight. For the Pribilofs, an inch of snow is expected to fall,
with rain further south along the Aleutians. The front quickly
falls apart through the morning hours on Wednesday. Wednesday
night into Thursday, a large area of high pressure builds across
the central and western Bering Sea, which an upper-level low
rides over top and dives south across the eastern Bering. The low
brings reinforcing cold air, increasing gap winds back to gale
force across the Alaska Peninsula for Thursday and Friday.

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Saturday to Tuesday)...

An upper level trough over Central Alaska weakens and slips into
Western Canada through the forecast period. A closed upper low in
the Eastern North Pacific weakens and exits over Queen Victoria
Island by Tuesday. The main axis of an upper level ridge
stretching from the North Pacific into the Arctic begins to
reorient over the Aleutians into the Interior and continues South
into the North Pacific for Tuesday. Forecast guidance with a well
clustered composite of GFS / ECMWF and Canadian models maintains
good overall continuity through the period.

A well developed closed surface low in the Eastern North Pacific
sweeps a couple of troughs across Southcentral Alaska through the
weekend as far South as Kodiak Island. Some rain showers may occur
mostly along the coastal areas. The last of gusty surface winds
over the Eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula departs by Midday
Sunday. Highest gusts will come through channeled terrain into
bays and passes. A second area of gusty winds moves over the
Western Bering through early Sunday. A developing low and front in
the North Pacific brings gusty winds over the Western Aleutians
and Bering Monday and Tuesday. A second developing low in the
Arctic brings increasing winds to the Western Alaskan coasts
Monday and Tuesday.

- Kutz

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions with light northerly winds continue through
Wednesday. An isolated shower is possible later this afternoon and
again Wednesday morning.

&&


$$