669
FXAK69 PAFG 271133
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
333 AM AKDT Mon Jul 27 2026

.SYNOPSIS...A cold front sweeping in from the north has brought
with it some early season cool weather to the North Slope and the
Brooks Range, with low temperatures overnight having reached below
freezing. Further south, periods of rain have moved along with the
front, and will continue to push across the south central interior
through Monday. By Tuesday, the parent trough will be pushing off
to the East, while a ridge begins to build over the Western Coast
and Western Interior. A shortwave moving out of the NW over the
ridge Wednesday into Thursday brings chances of precip back to the
North Slope and for much of the central and eastern interior.
Behind the second front, conditions look to trend warmer and drier
heading into next weekend as a ridge of high pressure builds-in
from the west with some light isolated showers primarily confined
to the coast where they will be experiencing onshore flow.


&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...

- A cold front continues to track southeastward across the
  Interior into Monday. A few isolated afternoon thunderstorms are
  possible ahead of the front with scattered showers, wind gusts
  to around 20 to 30 mph, and cooler temperatures expected.
  Precipitation will remain primarily between 40 miles and the
  Kuskokwim Valley Southward.

- Rainfall totals into Monday are expected to remain light overall,
with amounts greater than 0.10" most likely nearer to the Brooks
Range and Alaska Range. A few afternoon thunderstorms can`t be ruled
out, especially across the southeast Interior on  Monday.

- A brief warming and drying period sets in for Tuesday and
Wednesday as highs return to the 60s to low 70s ahead of another
cold front moving southeastward across the Interior late Wednesday
into Thursday with isolated rain showers and breezy winds.

- Following the secondary midweek front, warmer and drier
  conditions are expected to return heading into next weekend, as
  highs return to the 70s to low 80s.


West Coast and Western Interior...

- Warmer and drier conditions return for Monday and Tuesday ahead of
another cold front moving into northwest Alaska Wednesday into
Thursday with scattered rain showers and breezy winds.

- Following the midweek/secondary front, warmer and drier conditions
are expected to return heading into next weekend with isolated
showers along the coast. Highs will return to 60s/70s for most with
locally cooler conditions along the  coast.


North Slope and Brooks Range..

- Temperatures trend cooler through Monday in the wake of a cold
  front which passed through on Sunday.

- Rainfall/snow water equivalent totals through Monday will be
  around 0.20-0.40" region-wide, locally higher up to 0.75" across
  higher elevations of the southern Arctic Plains and in the
  Brooks Range. Precip lingers Monday morning E of Thompson Point.

- Dry conditions return from west to east into Monday as initially
cooler temperatures see a warming trend through midweek. A secondary
cold front remains on track to move-in Wednesday into Thursday with
scattered showers and gusty winds.

- Following the secondary midweek front, warmer and drier conditions
are expected to return heading into next weekend, with isolated
showers along the coast. Highs will return to 60s/70s for most with
locally cooler conditions along the coast.



&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION...Through Wednesday.

A cold front which has been advancing from NW to SE since Sunday
has brought with it minor snow accumulations to the Brooks Range,
and periods of rain to places like Fairbanks. Through the day on
Monday, the front and its associated short-wave trough will move
off to the East. While some rain is possible for Fairbanks itself
through the early morning hours, expect that by late morning the
precip will be off to the SE, closer to places like Tok and Delta
Junction. Likewise, while a few thunderstorms could develop along
the front, these will prove to be isolated in nature.

As the front departs from even these areas on Tuesday, drier
weather returns and temperatures begin to rebound. While cooler
weather will linger across the Brooks Range and the North Slope,
temperatures will reach into the 60s for areas further south on
Tuesday. On Wednesday, widespread upper 60s with some 70s are
expected for areas near sea level, barring marine-influenced
locations where temperatures in the 50s and low 60s linger.
Another shortwave trough begins moving in from the NW late on
Tuesday. Its corresponding front will bring gusts as high as 30 to
40 mph along the coast from the Lisburne Peninsula northward.
Some light rain will likewise move in, but nothing in the way of
noteworthy accumulations. Precip will largely fade away as the
front tries to move south of the Brooks Range through Wednesday
as upsloping wrings out most of the available moisture.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A cold front is moving through Eastern AK this afternoon
providing another round of wetting rains to the Alaska Range,
Fortymile Country, Eastern Yukon Flats and Brooks Range. The Upper
Tanana Valley southeast of Delta Junction has low chances for
wetting rains, but will likely see a few light rain showers.
Otherwise, the remainder of Northern Alaska will be mostly dry
with cooler than normal temperatures. Min RHs will be drying in
the Western Interior, around 30 to 40% with the Central/Eastern
Interior sitting around 45 to 65%. Temperatures will rise into the
60s to near 70 for most of the area on Tuesday with RHs around 30
to 40% across Northern Alaska. Another cold front moves into the
Brooks Range on Wednesday. Ahead of this front will be gusty
southwest winds across the Interior and West Coast on Wednesday
with gusts around 20 to 30 mph. This front traverses across the
Brooks Range Wednesday night and loses some steam by Thursday,
only allowing for a few showers in the Interior. Temperatures
wont change too much from this front as ridging builds in shortly
after the frontal passage. By Friday and into the weekend, it is
becoming increasingly more likely to see temperatures rise above
normal, back into the 70s and potentially 80s with RHs in the 30s
and possibly the 20s in the driest areas. This is something that
is being monitored very closely because there may be a prolonged
period of warm/dry weather with chances for thunderstorms once
again as we head into the first half of August.

Overall, there is not a ton of fire weather concerns this week
with mild temperatures and moderate min RHs. However, this may
change heading into the weekend and next week as a pattern change
is looking more likely to occur.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No major concerns at this time. Rivers draining the Brooks Range
will rise slightly due to the recent rain and melting snowfall,
but no flooding is expected.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION...
As we head into the long term period beginning on Thursday, we
will be seeing the beginning of a pattern change as a NPAC ridge
extends northward over mainland AK. This will begin to bring a
period of warmer temperatures to most of Northern Alaska. The
exception may be the West Coast and NW Arctic Coast as there is
some uncertainty in the placement of a broad longwave trough
extending from the North Pole to the Bering. If the ridge is
weaker, the trough will be farther east over Western AK and if it
is stronger, the trough will be farther west over the Bering. The
difference is stark as a farther east trough brings cooler
temperatures and chances for rain while a farther west trough
brings warmer and drier conditions. Regardless, the ridge should
move east towards The Yukon this weekend keeping the
Central/Eastern Interior warmer and drier. Towards Sunday and into
next week, guidance diverges a bit more as there may be a strong
Arctic trough dropping southeast, thus battling the ridge Sunday
into Monday. The strength of the ridge will determine how quickly
it moves out, but given the projected strength being nearly 1 to 2
sigma stronger than the mean, it may not budge easily. There is
low to medium confidence in the forecast going into next week, but
it is increasing towards a solution which keeps the ridge as the
more predominant weather feature across much of Northern Alaska.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...
Minor water rises are expected near Kotzebue Sound once again on
Wednesday with west to southwest winds sustained around 15 to 25
mph from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening. Water levels
will rise slightly Wednesday morning and into the afternoon from
Kotzebue to Kivalina. Expected rises are around 1 to 2 feet and
this may result in minor erosion.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ809.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ806-853-854.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ807-808-816-817-856.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ810-855.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ850.
&&

$$

Fire Weather...Bianco
Hydrology......Bianco
Long Term......Bianco
Coastal........Bianco