381
FXAK69 PAFG 262226
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
226 PM AKDT Sun Jul 26 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Precipitation has already spread across to the eastern
North Slope & the eastern Brooks Range of Alaska and will continue
shifting southeast this afternoon into tonight and Monday. This
front brings a band of steady precipitation that lasts roughly 12-15
hours at any one location and an unseasonably cold airmass that
allows for accumulating snow potential north of the Arctic Circle.
Snow chances are greatest along the northern slopes of the Brooks
Range, especially at elevations above roughly 1000 ft where
temperatures quickly cool below freezing during the snowfall. This
includes a stretch of the Dalton Highway between Atigun Pass and
Sagwon where locally up to 6 inches of snow is possible, which will
likely to result in hazardous travel. Saturated upslope flow
continues as deeper moisture/snowfall depart, which may result in a
period of snow showers and pockets of freezing drizzle lasting
through tonight. This front brings breezy winds, scattered rain
showers, and a few isolated thunderstorms to the remainder of
northern Alaska through Monday. Drier conditions and a warming trend
return ahead of the next cold front that tracks across the state as
we go into Wednesday and Thursday. Behind the second front,
conditions look to trend warmer and drier heading into next weekend
as a ridge of high pressure builds-in from the west with some light
isolated showers primarily confined to the coast where they will be
experiencing onshore flow.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...

- Mostly clear skies into this afternoon have allowed temperatures
to warm into the 60s to low 70s.

- A cold front continues to track southeastward across the Interior
into Monday. A few isolated afternoon thunderstorms are possible
ahead of the front with scattered showers, wind gusts to around 20
to 30 mph, and cooler temperatures expected heading into Monday.
Winds will peak this afternoon and evening ahead of the front.

- Rainfall totals into Monday are expected to remain light overall,
with amounts greater than 0.10" most likely nearer to the Brooks
Range and Alaska Range. A few afternoon thunderstorms can`t be ruled
out, especially across the southeast Interior on  Monday.

- A brief warming and drying period sets in for Tuesday and
Wednesday as highs return to the 60s to low 70s ahead of another
cold front moving southeastward across the Interior late Wednesday
into Thursday with isolated rain showers and breezy winds.

- Following the secondary midweek front, warmer and drier conditions
are expected to return heading into next weekend, as highs return to
the 70s to low 80s.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Temperatures have trended cooler today as a cold front tracks
southeastward from the Chukchi Sea across western Alaska through
tonight with scattered rain showers and breezy northwest winds.

- Rainfall totals through tonight are expected to remain light,
overall, with highest totals along the northwest Arctic Coast and
and Kobuk Valley where around 0.10-0.30" of rain is  expected.

- Warmer and drier conditions return for Monday and Tuesday ahead of
another cold front moving into northwest Alaska Wednesday into
Thursday with scattered rain showers and breezy winds.

- Following the midweek/secondary front, warmer and drier conditions
are expected to return heading into next weekend with isolated
showers along the coast. Highs will return to 60s/70s for most with
locally cooler conditions along the  coast.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Temperatures have trended much cooler today as a cold front tracks
southeastward from the Chukchi Sea across far northern Alaska
through tonight and Monday morning with scattered to widespread
rain/snow showers and breezy northwest winds.

- The heaviest of the snow accumulations associated with a cold
front moving southeastward through the region will last into tonight
across northern slopes of the Brooks Range(>1000 ft elevation).
Around 3-6" of snow is expected for Atigun Pass north to Toolik and
Ice Cut Hill with around 1-3" for Anaktuvuk Pass. Any snow totals
farther north will be around a trace to 1".

- Rainfall/snow water equivalent totals through Monday will be
around 0.20-0.40" region-wide, locally higher up to 0.75" across
higher elevations of the southern Arctic Plains and in the Brooks
Range.

- Dry conditions return from west to east into Monday as initially
cooler temperatures see a warming trend through midweek. A secondary
cold front remains on track to move-in Wednesday into Thursday with
scattered showers and gusty winds.

- Following the secondary midweek front, warmer and drier conditions
are expected to return heading into next weekend, with isolated
showers along the coast. Highs will return to 60s/70s for most with
locally cooler conditions along the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION...Through Tuesday Night.

Upslope flow north of the Brooks Range has been working to slow the
front`s progression and cool the thermal profile below freezing
resulting in a transition to snow as the day has progressed today.
For the around the Dalton Highway, the precipitation transitioned
over to snow around noon today local time. Potentially, heavy
snowfall rates persist for around 6-hours after the transition
allowing for up to 4-6" of heavy, wet snow, with lighter snow filing
in behind the heaviest rates. The primary factors introducing
uncertainty in accumulating snow are the warm and sunny conditions
yesterday raising ground temperatures, the timing of the rain/snow
transition, and ultimately how much of the QPF falls as rain vs
snow. Even though there is uncertainty, the heavy snowfall rates and
surface temperatures falling below freezing will overwhelm warm and
wet antecedent conditions and result in hazardous travel conditions
along the Dalton Highway north of Atigun Pass. Deep moisture shifts
eastward Sunday evening with model soundings showing a loss of
saturation in the DGZ. Models continue to show light QPF through
tonight within an upslope flow regime that is most likely to fall as
snow with pockets of freezing drizzle that could result in a light
glaze on top of the fresh snowfall.

Farther south, the front is bringing scattered rain showers across
the northwestern interior today with most places south of the Kobuk
Valley receiving less than 0.10" of rain. There`s also potential for
a few isolated thunderstorms this afternoon along and ahead of the
front across the northeastern interior. The thunderstorm potential
continues Monday afternoon as the frontal boundary slows across the
southeastern interior. With the front reaching the Fairbanks area
Monday morning, the storm chances should stay east of town on
Monday. Then there will be a general drying trend Monday night into
Tuesday ahead of the next Arctic trough that digs southward toward
the northwest Arctic coast Tuesday afternoon. Early signals point to
a warmer system that should limit the winter weather threat with the
bulk of precipitation expected across the North Slope. In between
fronts, conditions will trend warmer and drier overall.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 1 and 2...

A cold front has been moving southeastward from the Chukchi Sea,
today. The Kotzebue Sound and Chukchi Sea Coast has been
experiencing gusty northwesterly winds today following the front`s
passage to the east. Gusts today have been between 25 and 35 mph,
and water levels are expected to rise to 0.5 to 1.5 feet above the
normal high tide line late today, peaking overnight, and diminishing
rapidly Monday morning. Residents along the coast should remain
mindful of minor water level rises and take action to protect
property on the beach.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION...Wednesday through next Sunday.
At the start of the extended forecast period, the overall pattern is
dominated by 3 main features: a very large upper level low near the
North Pole, a building ridge in the Bering Sea, and a low in the
Gulf of Alaska connected by a trough to the North Pole low. A front
moving around the North Pole low approaches the Western Arctic Coast
Wednesday into Thursday. The ridge in the Bering simultaneously
attempts to push east into the Western Interior. The ridge is
expected to keep the front slightly farther north, but a period of
gusty winds and rain is expected to sweep across the Northern
Interior and North Slope Wednesday into Thursday.

After the front passes, there is a larger divergence in the
potential forecast. A stronger frontal passage or one that stalls
would restrict the ridge in its push into the Interior, keeping
conditions relatively cooler and more showery than they otherwise
would be. A weaker front or stronger ridge would enhance warming and
drying on the back end of the front leading to a more seasonable end
of the week. Currently the warmer and drier solution looks more
likely. However, yet another low rotates around the North Pole low
and towards the West Coast Friday into the weekend. Developing
higher pressure over the Interior may keep it in the Bering Sea
through the weekend. The forecast for this feature is currently too
uncertain to accurately suggest any potential impacts.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
This afternoon, an arctic trough and the associated cold front is
spanning roughly from the southeastern Seward Peninsula to the
Central/Eastern Brooks Range around Atigun Pass, bringing cooler air
in behind it. Temperatures in the Central and Eastern Interior have
had a chance to reach around 70F before the cold front arrival later
in the afternoon. Winds are gusty along with the front, generally
westerly ahead of the front in the Interior, but turning more
northerly behind the front closer to the West Coast as well as
through the Alaska Range. Winds will gust up to 25 mph for much of
northern Alaska through this afternoon. Rainfall amounts associated
with this front should be relatively light, generally less than a
tenth of a n inch except on the North Slope and in the Brooks Range
where between a quarter and half an inch in total is expected. There
is potential for a few isolated thunderstorms to develop ahead of
the front in the Eastern Interior.

For the start of next week, a cooler airmass will continue to linger
over Northern Alaska. Monday will be the coldest day for most areas
of the Interior. Max temperatures will likely be 10 to 15 degrees
cooler than normal, peaking in the low 60s or 50s. Conditions should
remain moderate, but follow a gradual warming trend through the rest
of week, until a ridge provides the chance for temperatures above 70
again for the latter half of the week.

Another weaker trough looks like it will come in from the northwest
again on Wednesday. Although the exact impacts from this trough are
a bite more uncertain, it looks like the Interior will receive
another round of light precipitation, with a less significant drop
in temperatures.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ809.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ806-854.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ807-808-816-817-856.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ809.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ810-855.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ850.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ851.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ853.
&&

$$