534
FXAK69 PAFG 091348
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
448 AM AKST Tue Dec 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold weather continues across Interior Alaska, with most such
areas in the negative teens or colder, and the Upper Tanana Valley
around -50F. The North Slope by contrast is in the single digits
and teens above zero as a round of light snow shifts eastward
across the area through Wednesday morning. Thereafter, colder air
moves in behind a cold front, dropping much of the North Slope too
into the negative teens. This will quickly change from Thursday
through the weekend as a low off Siberia shifts east and brings
increased cloud cover, widespread snowfall of at least an inch,
and much warmer temperatures to Alaska north of the AK Range. On
the North Slope, winds will also rise, which could result in
blowing snow and reduced visibilities at times, especially where
they combine with falling snow. Moving into next week, very cold
conditions could drop temperatures into the -40s or -50s F in
much of Eastern Alaska, even outside typical cold spots.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Cold weather will continue across the Interior through
  Wednesday. Cold valley locations will see lows in the -30s and
  -40s, with the Upper Tanana Valley falling to around -50.

- Beginning on Thursday, another system will move into the area
  and yield snow totals widely of around 1 to 3 inches through the
  weekend, with higher totals of over 4 inches possible from the
  north slopes of the Western AK Range to the White Mountains.

- Considerably warmer temperatures are likely on Friday with this
  system, with highs widely rising into the positive single or
  double digits.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Cold weather with lows in the negative teens and 20s will
  continue through Wednesday night ahead of the next system.

- From Thursday through the weekend, much warmer temperatures
  with increasing clouds and 1-4 inches of light snow will be
  brought in as the next system moves into the area.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
- Light snow will continue across the eastern North Slope through
  Wednesday before colder air is ushered in by a cold front in
  its wake. Accumulations will generally be light.

- A more robust wave of snow is expected from Thursday into the
  weekend as a low moves along the Arctic coast. 2 to 4 inches of
  snow are widely possible across the area. Higher totals are
  possible in the Brooks Range and Arctic plains, mostly east of
  the Dalton Highway.

- As the low moves along the coast, widespread winds of 25 to 35
  mph, with higher gusts, will shift from SW to W and could
  combine with falling/fresh snow to blow and reduce visibilities.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
A positively-tilted ~550 dm ridge at 500 mb is currently focused
over the Bering Sea. A broad area of troughing is extending from a
height minimum of ~497 dm over the Canadian Archipelago southeast
toward Nunavut, then southwest into Yukon. Temperatures at the 850
mb level are in the mid -20s C over the eastern Fortymile Country
and the Upper Tanana Valley, where surface temps are near -50F.
Moving through today and tomorrow, a cold front shifting southeast
across the North Slope will continue to bring up to a couple
inches of light snow to those areas before ushering in a return of
temperatures in the negative teens in its wake.

Otherwise, cold weather is expected across Northern Alaska until
the next system moves off of Siberia in the form of an upper 990s
mb surface low on Thursday. The low, which is expected to track
along the Arctic coast, will bring elevated sustained winds of
around 25-35 mph (with higher gusts) to the North Slope as it
transits east. It will initially bring snow to Western Alaska
Thursday morning, spreading east into the Central Interior / North
Slope by Thursday evening and reaching the eastern border by
early Friday morning. While there is some uncertainty on
accumulations through the weekend, across the Interior, many/most
areas could see at least 1-3 inches of accumulation, with a narrow
band of up to 4-6 inches extending from the northern slopes of
the Western AK Range northeast to the White Mountains. On the
North Slope, totals could widely reach 2-4 inches, with 6+
possible in the Eastern Brooks Range and parts of the Arctic
plains just east of the Dalton Highway. Given the amount of
snow/snowfall rates and the potential for falling snow to combine
with elevated winds, there will be the potential for visibility-
limiting blowing snow at times across the Arctic coast. Snow
totals of around 4 inches will also be possible on the Chukchi Sea
and southern Seward Peninsula coasts.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
After the low exits the area on Saturday, most snow will end
across Western and Interior Alaska with the exception of some
patchy light snow Saturday evening across parts of Western Alaska
as a weak low transits south along the coast. The North Slope by
contrast could see repeated periods of light snow into next week as
weak surface lows / upper-level shortwaves move along the coast.
In the Interior, cold air will reconsolidate, with widespread lows
down into at least the -30s and -40s F in the Central and Eastern
Interior and the negative teens in the Western Interior. Early
next week, models depict a strong ridge over the Bering Sea and
Siberia with extensive and very cold troughing over northwestern
Canada. With a large, dry, and very cold air mass aloft from
Mon Dec 15 through at least Wed Dec 17, -50s F are not out of the
question for much of the Eastern Interior and eastern North Slope
even outside of just the typical cold spots. The western extent of
this cold air is still an open question, but there is a chance it
could extend into the Central Interior/North Slope if the ridge
is farther west. Beyond then, there are model disagreements on
how persistent the airmass is.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ817.
&&

$$

DS