566
FXAK69 PAFG 021424
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
624 AM AKDT Tue Jun 2 2026

.SYNOPSIS...

Snow showers are likely in the Eastern Brooks Range with rain
in the Northeastern Interior through today before moving to the
northeast and out of the region. High pressure is expected to
gradually move in from the west starting today and lingering over
the region through Thursday. As a result, warmer and drier
conditions will ensue for the Interior and West Coast with many
locations seeing high temperatures in the low to mid 70s. As an
Arctic low traverses south by late this week, cooler and wetter
conditions are expected to return.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Lingering rain showers are possible over the Northern Interior
  and Yukon Flats through tonight.

- A pattern change will allow for warmer temperatures reaching the
  low to mid 70s over most of the Interior valleys beginning today
  and continuing into Thursday.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Light winds return today allowing for warmer temperatures with
  highs in the low to mid 70s.

- Mostly clear and dry conditions persist from today through
  Thursday until clouds build in later this week.

North Slope and Brooks Range..

- Below average temperatures are expected to persist through today on
  the North Slope with values mostly between 30 and 40 degrees
  through Friday.

- Areas of light snow move persist over the Eastern Brooks Range
  and North Slope through today with less than 1 inch of snow on
  the North Slope and up to a few inches for higher elevations of
  the northern Brooks Range, including Atigun Pass.

- Additional light precipitation is expected to develop over the
  eastern North Slope and eastern Brooks Range by Thursday as a
  system from the Arctic drops southwards.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
Tuesday through Wednesday.

A closed low over Northern Alaska allows for some residual showers
over the Central/Eastern Brooks Range and Northern Interior
through Tuesday night as remnants gradually move out of the region
to the northeast. Upper level ridging is expected to build in from
the west and southeast, converging over Northern Alaska through
the week until an Arctic low begins digging down from the north by
this upcoming weekend. As a result of the brief ridging, warmer
and drier conditions will ensue for much of the region through
Thursday. High temperatures in the Interior and West Coast are
expected to reach the low to mid 70s between Tuesday and Thursday
of this week. 850 mb temperatures show westward and southeastward warm
air advection in the mid levels, both of which are large drivers
of these warmer conditions. Sinking air associated with this
ridging will allow for skies to remain relatively clear for most
of the region through the end of the week. The aforementioned
Arctic low is likely to gradually move southward around Thursday
morning, setting the stage for a transition back to cooler and
wetter conditions. The North Slope could see some chances of rain
and/or snow showers by Wednesday night going into Thursday morning
as the Arctic low brings moisture in from the north. These
chances continue to move south through the weekend, bringing
showers to the Interior.

A tight north/northwest pressure gradient is expected to form
between the advancing Arctic low and high pressure moving back
towards the west by Thursday over the Brooks Range and Kotzebue
Sound. As a result, gusts are likely to reach up to 30 mph in
these areas through Friday morning. Wetter and cooler conditions
are expected through the weekend as the low establishes over
Northern Alaska.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Upper-level ridging is expected to build into the state today,
leading to a dramatic decrease in showers and thunderstorm activity
throughout the rest of this week. Light, isolated showers are
possible, but chances of wetting rain and thunderstorms remain
unlikely. High temperatures are expected to remain in the 60s and
70s everywhere except the North Slope where areas will remain in the
20s and 30s. Minimum relative humidities are expected to generally
be in the 30% range, except the Tanana Valley, Fortymile Country,
and the Yukon Flats where 20% is possible. Winds are expected to be
generally light tomorrow, but may increase near the Seward Peninsula
and Brooks Range Wednesday night into Thursday. A pattern shift is
expected towards the end of the week and into the weekend as upper-
level troughing builds into the state, leading to the possibility of
showers and thunderstorms returning.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

No changes from the previous hydro forecast discussion.

Sagavanirktok River: Some overflowing is occurring; however, breakup
along the Sag River has not begun yet. High temperatures
increased to around the mid to upper 30s Monday with low temps in
the 20s and 30s (north to south). Tuesday and Wednesday appear to
be the warmest days with highs in the 30s to near 40 along the
coast and low 50s towards the northern Brooks Range. Temperatures
will then dip back down later in the week, exact values are
uncertain. Near the Sag River source on the north Brooks Range,
high temperatures could reach the mid 50s through Wednesday, with
snow levels reaching upwards of 4000 ft. Again, temperatures look
to cool going into the late week but continue to be above
freezing.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
For Friday through next Monday.

At the start of the extended forecast period Friday, the overall
pattern is transitioning from high pressure to the west and slight
ridging towards broad troughing as a large low over the Arctic
Ocean moves further south. Under the broad troughing pattern
conditions are expected to cool once more across the region with
highs falling back into the 60s across the Interior and below
freezing along the Arctic Coast. Afternoon showers with the
occasional very isolated thunderstorm will be possible each day.
Winds will become generally calm across most of the Interior with
periods of west/northwesterly winds expected, especially along the
Arctic and Chukchi Sea Coasts. The timing of these periods of
stronger winds will be largely dependent upon the timing and
strength of shortwave features moving through the large Arctic
low. These shortwaves will also influence the strength and
distribution of the heaviest showers as they make their way across
Northern Alaska. There is a great deal of uncertainty regarding
the timing and strength of these features, but high confidence in
them occuring early next week. The details of any storms that move
through the region then will therefore remain hazy for now.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...None.
&&

$$

Srinivasan - Synopsis, Forecast Analysis
Srinivasan/Laney - Key Messages
Lewis - Fire Weather
Stokes - Extended