979
FXAK67 PAJK 141354
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
554 AM AKDT Sat Jun 14 2025

.SHORT TERM...Forecast remains largely on track across southeast
Alaska this Saturday morning. Satellite imagery gives a great look
at the drier air that has rotated around the relatively stagnant
low west of Haida Gwaii, leading to clear skies overnight Friday
across most of the eastern gulf and the inner channels from Dixon
entrance all the way to the Icy Strait corridor and southern Lynn
Canal. As a result, many areas saw lower minimum temperatures,
approaching freezing in Hoonah. Despite this drier air, a few
holdouts did still manage to develop fog early this morning.
Yakutat saw shallow patchy fog advect through the area, while
Klawock had some very localized shallow fog develop and advect
directly into the vicinity of the airport. IN both cases, daytime
heating and subsequent turbulent mixing will dissipate this fog
through the morning hours with rapid improvement in visibilities.

Winds across the inner channels will remain relatively light and
variable in most places, with sea breezes to develop in the
afternoon under the clear skies. Widespread daytime maximum
temperatures of low to mid 60s abound. Far northern panhandle near
Haines and Skagway once again will see the possibility of showers
as convection develops over BC and easterly flow aloft advects
them into the region. Only other precipitation to speak of will be
for southern Prince of Wales Island, as the stagnant low in the
southern gulf gets an impulse of energy and swings a band of
showers into the area late Saturday night into Sunday.

.LONG TERM.../Sunday into next weekend/...The overall trend next
week is looking like drier and warmer weather is on the way to SE
AK.

Key Messages:
-Lingering low in the gulf will keep rain and rain showers in the
 forecast early next week.
-Evidence is increasing that drier, sunnier, and much warmer temps
 are on the way for late next week.
-Highs in the upper 60s to 70s around the area are likely.
-Wind speeds look to be on the lighter side late in the week.

Details:
A stationary closed low at 500mb, just off the coast of Haida
Gwaii, will continue to persist and give SE AK chances for rain.
This feature will regain some energy from fujiwhara interaction
with another system that will consolidate and strengthen the low,
which will send a new front into the southern panhandle by Monday.
By and large, we expect winds to remain near moderate to fresh
breezes near southern Clarence Strait with much lighter winds
everywhere else. Along with freshening up of the winds in the
south, expect some moisture to move into the area Monday, bringing
light rain and clouds to the panhandle. Expect cloudy and wet
conditions into Wednesday before a pattern change brings a ridge
of high pressure into the gulf.

As this ridge builds, warm temperatures will move into the region
for later in the week and the weekend. Dry conditions with
temperatures making it into the upper 60s to 70s will be found
across the region.

&&

.AVIATION...

Vertically stacked low remains entrenched across the eastern Gulf
this morning, with sharp cut off of BKN cloud deck near 5000 to
8000ft along and north of a line from Yakutat eastward over to
Haines/Skagway, in contrast to widespread VFR conditions with
CIGS AoA 5000ft along and south of Icy Strait.

Predominate VFR conditions will continue through this morning
across the panhandle with nuisance FEW to SCT deck lingering around
500ft near TAF sites. Yakutat is seeing the worst flight
conditions this morning with persistent IFR CIGS as moisture
continues to wrap around the upper level low in the E Gulf and
stream in overhead with intermittent CIGS AoB 1000ft. For Yakutat
specifically, not anticipating too much improvement through the
day, could see a short window this afternoon for a brief period of
VFR flying conditions, otherwise, anticipate predominate MVFR or
worse conditions to continue with CIGS AoB 4000ft. For the rest of
the panhandle, after nuisance cloud deck and fog dissipate
through morning, anticipating VFR flight conditions to prevail
through 00z with CIGS AoA 5000ft and no visibility restrictions.

Winds should remain around 12kts or less with isolated gusts up
to 20kts possible during afternoon seabreeze, going near calm and
variable once more through Saturday night. No LLWS concerns
through the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
Outside: Main story is the weak closed low bringing fresh breezes
to the coast of Prince of Wales Island, which will continue
through Saturday night and increase in coverage over the central
gulf on Sunday. Seas to remain less than 8 ft, with less than 5
ft in the northern gulf.

Inside: Mostly light winds through Saturday night with seas 2 ft
or less. Not expecting much fog for the inner channels due to
slight warm air advection, resulting in a low cloud deck rather
than surface fog. Southern Clarence Strait to see winds increase
up to moderate breeze by Saturday night and last through Sunday.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...STJ
LONG TERM....AP/GJS
AVIATION...NM
MARINE...STJ

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