503
FXAK67 PAJK 290653
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1053 PM AKDT Wed Oct 28 2026

.SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- Quiet weather through at least early Saturday with more sun and dry
  conditions expected.

- A return to a wetter pattern from West to East expected through
  the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../through Friday night/...The panhandle is still on
track to remain relatively clear, dry, and cold with overnight lows
dropping to the mid to low 20s up north with the southern half
hovering in the low to mid 30s tonight and Thursday. Places like
Skagway, Haines and Kake which stayed relatively warm overnight
Tuesday will likely see cooler overnight lows Wednesday and Thursday
as northerly inner channel winds gradually decrease tonight into
Thursday, allowing for increased radiational cooling at the surface.
With the dry air mass still in place though, little to no fog is
expected to develop Wednesday night. As the ridge axis continues
sliding across the northern gulf, some guidance is suggesting a
brief period of weak onshore flow pushing into the northeast coast
and potentially into Cross Sound Thursday night. If this occurs,
some shallow fog could develop along the outer coast and in the
vicinity of Cross Sound/Icy Strait as dew points rebound. With the
expected overnight low temperatures however, this fog would likely
be brief and frost out as temperatures continued to drop. Exception
could be Yakutat depending upon the orientation and strength of the
onshore wind component.

Towards the end of the week, models are still in relative agreement
on a front pushing across the gulf of Alaska and bringing
precipitation to the northeast coast including Yakutat sometime late
Friday night into early Saturday. While there remains some wiggle
room in terms of timing, there is increasing confidence that this
front will push further eastward into SE AK by the end of Saturday
at the latest, with the far northern inner channels likely seeing
some light snow mixing with rain initially at the surface before
transitioning to all rain as snow levels rise and southerly winds
increase and bring warmer temperatures aloft. For more information
on this upcoming weekend, see the long term discussion.

.LONG TERM.../Saturday through Tuesday/...Going into Saturday
morning, the strong high pressure still looks to keep the front
further westward, not fully pushing into the rest of the
panhandle until Saturday evening into Saturday night. The timing
of this has increased in confidence, however remains somewhat
uncertain for more inland parts of the panhandle from Juneau
southward on if the precipitation onset will be more in the
evening or pushed later into the overnight hours, largely
dependent on how quickly the high pressure begins to break down
and allow for the system to push in further than the outer coast.
Model agreement is however narrowing in on the timing of this
first front pushing east across the panhandle Saturday evening
through Sunday morning, with the highest rainfall totals expected
along the NE Gulf coastline around Yakutat. Generally expecting
around 2 to 3 inches in 24 hours for the Yakutat area Friday night
through Saturday night.

The precipitation type expected is still a bit uncertain for the
Saturday night period and will depend largely on the location, as
some parts of the northern panhandle further inland from the
outer Gulf coast may see cold air damming near the surface
Saturday night into the overnight hours as the front initially moves
in. With this in place, some locations at sea level in the
northern panhandle may initially see rain with snow mixing in
before quickly transitioning to rain. Any snow mixing in is low in
confidence at this time still, and will not have any expected
accumulation at sea level.

This more active pattern will continue into the start of next
week as a series of lows move into the Gulf, keeping wetter and
comparatively warmer weather in the forecast

&&

.AVIATION...

An unusually nice period of weather for aviators over the next 24
hours. Clear skies or a few high clouds along with weak winds will
make for VFR almost everywhere. The only exception appears to be
PAYA, which has been experiencing brief bouts of fog this evening.
Unlikely to become a consistent issue or to form at other locales.


&&

.MARINE...
Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): As an area of low
pressure moves southeastward, winds are continuing to weaken in
the Gulf of Alaska. Behind the area of low pressure, expect a
ridge to build in across the region, which will lead to winds near
15 kts dropping through the day Thursday. A front currently
impacting western Alaska will move eastward into the Gulf of
Alaska by Friday into Saturday, and this will lead to a more
active weather pattern. This will increase winds in the Gulf of
Alaska, and is forecast to bring gale force to storm force winds
near Cape Suckling due to a barrier jet formation Friday. The
main forecast uncertainty is with frontal timing, as a ridge may
delay the front arriving.

Inside (Inner Channels): Strong northerly winds in the inner
channels are decreasing as low pressure system continues moving
southeastward. So far, the strongest winds are in southern Stephens
Passage and near Point Couverden. As the pressure gradient
decreases, expect the winds to decrease as well. A ridge of high
pressure continues to build in the Gulf of Alaska, and a fairly
benign weather pattern will be in place through Friday. As a front
currently West of Anchorage approaches the area late Friday
night, then winds in the inner channels look to increase from West
to East. Overall, this looks to begin a fairly active weather
pattern for Southeast Alaska. As of now, this is toward the end of
the short-term marine forecast period, so please read the long
term discussion for more information.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...STJ
LONG TERM...Contino
AVIATION...VFJ
MARINE...Musall

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