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FXAK67 PAJK 161800
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1000 AM AKDT Thu Oct 16 2025

.UPDATE...Update to include 18z TAF issuance...

&&

.SHORT TERM...The strong front from last night has moved into
Canada overnight taking most of its winds and rain with it. Winds
across the area have died down compared to last evening though
some gusty winds are still being seen in the southern panhandle
currently. Rain has also diminished with primarily rain showers
moving in from the gulf in the onshore flow behind the front.
Strongest showers are moving onshore from Baranof Island
Northwestward. Some of these showers are strong enough that some
lightning is being observed across the NE gulf coast as the
showers hit the terrain.

The story for the next 24 hours is the strong W to SW flow that
will be present across the area and the accompanying shower
activity that it will bring. The strong flow is being produced by
a low that is near Cook Inlet that will be moving into the
northern gulf by this afternoon. On the south side of it will be
gale force W winds through the central gulf that will impact the
panhandle in a diminished state, but will still bring breezy
conditions to many areas through tonight. Areas along the outer
coast that are exposed to the W and SW will likely see the
breeziest winds through tonight. The northern inner channels
(mainly the north/south oriented channels) will see southerly
winds of 20 to 30 kt through Friday night from a persistent
southerly pressure gradient across the area.

As for the shower activity, That will also be a persistent
feature through the next 24 hours, particularly for the outer
coast and along W and SW facing slopes. Expected cape and lifted
indexes out over the gulf indicate that some of these showers
could bring brief periods of moderate to heavy rain and occasional
lightning (especially when these showers hit the higher terrain)
through Thursday night which is already being observed along the
NE gulf coast this morning. The stronger showers are expected to
spread south and eastward through the day eventually covering all
of the panhandle by this afternoon. The chance of lightning will
mainly be for the outer coast through the period. A few strikes
farther inland is not out the question, but will likely be very
isolated in nature. Expected rainfall amounts through late
Thursday night will range from around a quarter inch in areas
shadowed from the W and SW to up to 2 inches or more along and
near the NW to SE oriented ridge lines.

.LONG TERM.../Friday through Sunday/...For Friday morning, post-
frontal showers with a chance of thunderstorms remain along the
Outer Coast as well as winds up to around 25 to 30 kt over the
eastern gulf waters & Lynn Canal due to a relatively tight
pressure gradient that will still be in place. This will keep
things rather breezy over land areas, as well. The thunderstorms
may bring gusty winds up to around 35 mph & moderate to heavy
rainfall. After a brief lull in the winds Friday afternoon, a gale
force SFC low moves up into the SE Gulf for Friday night through
Saturday, bringing winds up to around 35 to 40 kt as it pushes in
for the SE gulf & southern third to half of the inner channels,
particularly Clarence Strait. Conditions will become rather breezy
for southern Panhandle land areas, as well. Late Saturday
afternoon, after the low has pushed into the SE Gulf, it will
begin to weaken & push away from the region, diminishing winds
over the SE gulf to 20 to 25 kt through the end of the forecast
period. Late Saturday morning through early Saturday afternoon,
northern Lynn Canal looks to top out up at around 25 kt as the
pressure gradient will be the tightest around that time associated
with this weather system. Precipitation will top out in the
moderate to heavy range for Friday night through Saturday for the
southern Panhandle & light elsewhere associated with this low. For
mainly Saturday night & Sunday night, around peak nighttime
cooling, some light snow accumulations are possible, primarily at
the higher elevations along the Klondike Highway.

&&

.AVIATION...Onshore flow will be continuing in the wake of the
previous system, pushing showers over the panhandle through the
day Thursday. Gusty winds with moderate to heavy rain rates are
associated with these showers, expected to bring CIGs down to
around 3000 ft with lowered VIS as they pass over. Conditions will
continue to jump between VFR and MVFR through the day, with
longer periods of MVFR expected into the afternoon and evening
hours as a shortwave reinforces onshore flow. Widespread
turbulence and LLWS is still expected, though intensity has
greatly decreased. Isolated thunderstorms are possible along the
northeast coast as showers interact with mountains, with Sitka
already seeing a strike nearby around 1730Z. Conditions are
expected to slightly improve Friday afternoon until another front
moves into the central and southern panhandle from the south
overnight into Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Gulf Waters: Long lasting gale force W flow across the central
gulf through Friday is the main story. While the gale force winds
are mainly confined to the offshore zones in the central gulf, SW
to W winds of 25 to 30 kt will still be widespread across the near
shore waters from Cape Fairweather southward through Friday
morning. These winds are then expected to diminish by Friday
afternoon and start to switch to the S and SE by Friday night as a
new low comes in from the S. The long lasting nature and large
area covered by these W winds are expected to build a rather large
W to SW swell by this afternoon and evening. Swell heights will
likely be reaching around 20 ft in the central gulf by that time
which will sweep toward the outer coast of SE Alaska by late
Thursday night (swell periods likely reaching 14 to 15 sec). This
combined with the wind wave will lead to combined seas of 20 to 25
ft through at least Friday morning across a wide areas of the
gulf before slowly diminishing into the early weekend.

Inside waters: Winds have largely diminished overnight following
the passage of yesterday`s front. Some min gale to 30 kt small
craft winds are still occurring in the southern part of Clarence
Strait early this morning, but those winds are expected to
diminish this morning once the front clears the area. Focus then
shifts to the ocean entrances and the north/south channels of the
northern inner channels as strong onshore flow takes over today.
The ocean entrances from Cape Fairweather southward will be
dealing with 25 kt W to SW winds and increasing W to SW swell
through at least Friday morning. Max swell will be late tonight
with the most exposed areas seeing wave heights up to 20 ft. As
for the northern inner channels, persistent 25 to 30 kt winds are
likely for Lynn Canal and Stephens Passage through late Thursday
night as northerly pressure gradients remain strong across the
panhandle. Expect wave heights reaching 3 to 7 ft for most areas
that are not exposed to the swell coming in from the gulf.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-022-031>035-053-641>644-651-
     652-661>664-671-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EAL
LONG TERM...JLC
AVIATION...ZTK
MARINE...EAL

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