


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Juneau, AK
Issued by NWS Juneau, AK
223 FXAK67 PAJK 161800 AFDAJK Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 1000 AM AKDT Thu Oct 16 2025 .UPDATE...Update to include 18z TAF issuance... && .SHORT TERM...The strong front from last night has moved into Canada overnight taking most of its winds and rain with it. Winds across the area have died down compared to last evening though some gusty winds are still being seen in the southern panhandle currently. Rain has also diminished with primarily rain showers moving in from the gulf in the onshore flow behind the front. Strongest showers are moving onshore from Baranof Island Northwestward. Some of these showers are strong enough that some lightning is being observed across the NE gulf coast as the showers hit the terrain. The story for the next 24 hours is the strong W to SW flow that will be present across the area and the accompanying shower activity that it will bring. The strong flow is being produced by a low that is near Cook Inlet that will be moving into the northern gulf by this afternoon. On the south side of it will be gale force W winds through the central gulf that will impact the panhandle in a diminished state, but will still bring breezy conditions to many areas through tonight. Areas along the outer coast that are exposed to the W and SW will likely see the breeziest winds through tonight. The northern inner channels (mainly the north/south oriented channels) will see southerly winds of 20 to 30 kt through Friday night from a persistent southerly pressure gradient across the area. As for the shower activity, That will also be a persistent feature through the next 24 hours, particularly for the outer coast and along W and SW facing slopes. Expected cape and lifted indexes out over the gulf indicate that some of these showers could bring brief periods of moderate to heavy rain and occasional lightning (especially when these showers hit the higher terrain) through Thursday night which is already being observed along the NE gulf coast this morning. The stronger showers are expected to spread south and eastward through the day eventually covering all of the panhandle by this afternoon. The chance of lightning will mainly be for the outer coast through the period. A few strikes farther inland is not out the question, but will likely be very isolated in nature. Expected rainfall amounts through late Thursday night will range from around a quarter inch in areas shadowed from the W and SW to up to 2 inches or more along and near the NW to SE oriented ridge lines. .LONG TERM.../Friday through Sunday/...For Friday morning, post- frontal showers with a chance of thunderstorms remain along the Outer Coast as well as winds up to around 25 to 30 kt over the eastern gulf waters & Lynn Canal due to a relatively tight pressure gradient that will still be in place. This will keep things rather breezy over land areas, as well. The thunderstorms may bring gusty winds up to around 35 mph & moderate to heavy rainfall. After a brief lull in the winds Friday afternoon, a gale force SFC low moves up into the SE Gulf for Friday night through Saturday, bringing winds up to around 35 to 40 kt as it pushes in for the SE gulf & southern third to half of the inner channels, particularly Clarence Strait. Conditions will become rather breezy for southern Panhandle land areas, as well. Late Saturday afternoon, after the low has pushed into the SE Gulf, it will begin to weaken & push away from the region, diminishing winds over the SE gulf to 20 to 25 kt through the end of the forecast period. Late Saturday morning through early Saturday afternoon, northern Lynn Canal looks to top out up at around 25 kt as the pressure gradient will be the tightest around that time associated with this weather system. Precipitation will top out in the moderate to heavy range for Friday night through Saturday for the southern Panhandle & light elsewhere associated with this low. For mainly Saturday night & Sunday night, around peak nighttime cooling, some light snow accumulations are possible, primarily at the higher elevations along the Klondike Highway. && .AVIATION...Onshore flow will be continuing in the wake of the previous system, pushing showers over the panhandle through the day Thursday. Gusty winds with moderate to heavy rain rates are associated with these showers, expected to bring CIGs down to around 3000 ft with lowered VIS as they pass over. Conditions will continue to jump between VFR and MVFR through the day, with longer periods of MVFR expected into the afternoon and evening hours as a shortwave reinforces onshore flow. Widespread turbulence and LLWS is still expected, though intensity has greatly decreased. Isolated thunderstorms are possible along the northeast coast as showers interact with mountains, with Sitka already seeing a strike nearby around 1730Z. Conditions are expected to slightly improve Friday afternoon until another front moves into the central and southern panhandle from the south overnight into Saturday. && .MARINE... Gulf Waters: Long lasting gale force W flow across the central gulf through Friday is the main story. While the gale force winds are mainly confined to the offshore zones in the central gulf, SW to W winds of 25 to 30 kt will still be widespread across the near shore waters from Cape Fairweather southward through Friday morning. These winds are then expected to diminish by Friday afternoon and start to switch to the S and SE by Friday night as a new low comes in from the S. The long lasting nature and large area covered by these W winds are expected to build a rather large W to SW swell by this afternoon and evening. Swell heights will likely be reaching around 20 ft in the central gulf by that time which will sweep toward the outer coast of SE Alaska by late Thursday night (swell periods likely reaching 14 to 15 sec). This combined with the wind wave will lead to combined seas of 20 to 25 ft through at least Friday morning across a wide areas of the gulf before slowly diminishing into the early weekend. Inside waters: Winds have largely diminished overnight following the passage of yesterday`s front. Some min gale to 30 kt small craft winds are still occurring in the southern part of Clarence Strait early this morning, but those winds are expected to diminish this morning once the front clears the area. Focus then shifts to the ocean entrances and the north/south channels of the northern inner channels as strong onshore flow takes over today. The ocean entrances from Cape Fairweather southward will be dealing with 25 kt W to SW winds and increasing W to SW swell through at least Friday morning. Max swell will be late tonight with the most exposed areas seeing wave heights up to 20 ft. As for the northern inner channels, persistent 25 to 30 kt winds are likely for Lynn Canal and Stephens Passage through late Thursday night as northerly pressure gradients remain strong across the panhandle. Expect wave heights reaching 3 to 7 ft for most areas that are not exposed to the swell coming in from the gulf. && .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-022-031>035-053-641>644-651- 652-661>664-671-672. && $$ SHORT TERM...EAL LONG TERM...JLC AVIATION...ZTK MARINE...EAL Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau