408
FXAK67 PAJK 111537
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
637 AM AKST Thu Dec 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

 - Cold temperatures continue, with many areas seeing single
   digits to teens for overnight lows, with some areas in the NE
   panhandle dipping to the single digits below zero. Dangerously
   cold wind chills continue along White Pass.

 - Clearing skies & drier conditions are in store for the rest of
   the work-week.

 - Continued strong outflow winds will keep the cold air in place
   through the weekend for the northern panhandle. Marginally
   warmer air moves into the southern panhandle this weekend with
   snow becoming likely.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../Through Tonight/...Clearing skies, cold, dry, &
windy northeasterly outflow conditions, strongest over the
northern panhandle, continue with a gradual diminishing trend in
the winds starting late tonight through friday as the pressure
gradient relaxes a bit. The wind chill at White Pass has gotten
down to as low as minus 51 as of 5:30am AKDT. An Extreme Cold
Warning remains in effect for the Municipality of Skagway & the
Klondike Highway until 9am AKDT Friday. A Cold Weather Advisory
remains in effect until 9am Friday for the Haines Borough & the
Haines Highway for wind chills as low as 25 below. It has been
very lightly snowing in the Petersburg & Kake area overnight. This
will taper-off as very weak localized troughing over that area
diminishes into the morning hours.

LONG TERM.../Friday through Monday/...Only minor changes were
made to the long term forecast, mainly adjusting outflow wind
timing and beginning to narrow down timing on the potential snow
for next weekend into early next week.

Strong outflow winds continue to hold any developing showers
offshore until Saturday morning, keeping the panhandle dry with
partly cloudy skies through the rest of the week. A small surface
ridge developing on Friday is expected to make that day the most
clear and the least windy, though outflow winds will still be
elevated to around 20 kts in the strongest areas. Precipitation is
expected to return to the forecast Saturday morning as a low
jumps into the southern gulf and sends a front northward into the
panhandle. The precipitation will mainly impact the southern
panhandle over the weekend, extending north to the central and
parts of the northern panhandle through Sunday into next week.
Uncertainty still remains in how far this front will make it up
the panhandle, as persisting outflow winds will attempt to force
the front to stay more south. With colder temperatures remaining
through the long term forecast, precipitation will most likely
fall as snow for the northern panhandle. The front will bring
slightly warmer temperatures around freezing with it to the
southern panhandle, making it possible for this precipitation to
mix for parts of the weekend. Active weather looks to remain into
early next week.

The main impacts for the long term remains the temperatures and
winds. The arctic boundary sits just south of the panhandle
through the rest of the week, keeping below freezing temperatures
through much of the extended forecast. Daytime highs will struggle
to reach into the 20s for many locations in the northern and
central panhandle, and into the 30s for the southern panhandle.
Overnight lows during the week will mostly stay in the single
digits up north and in the 10s down south, slightly increasing
through the weekend as the next system moves in. Uncertainty
remains on southern panhandle temperatures through the weekend, as
models are starting to depict the arctic boundary shifting just
north of this area allowing the front to bring temperatures in the
mid to upper 30s to some of these southern locations. This makes
snow potential even more uncertain, as there may be times where
these temperatures reach above freezing enough to turn to a
rain/snow mix or even just rain for periods. This boundary looks
to shift back down south into early next week, keeping the cold
temperature trend in the extended forecast. An extreme cold
warning for Skagway, primarily along the Klondike Highway, has
been reissued through 9 AM Friday for extremely cold wind chill
temperatures as low as 55 degrees below. The cold weather advisory
for the Haines Borough has also been reissued through 9 AM Friday
for wind chills as low as 25 degrees below, primarily once the
sun sets. Strong outflow also persists through the week, with 20
to 35 kt winds and pockets of gales blowing through the inner
channels and funneling out into the coastal waters of the gulf.
The strongest winds will remain in the northern panhandle,
particularly down Lynn Canal and Stephens Passage and out of Cross
Sound, with gaps along the gulf coast serving as outlets for
strong winds to funnel through. There will be a brief decrease in
wind speeds on Friday, though Lynn Canal will still stay above 20
kts before outflow ramps up even stronger than before going into
the weekend. Strong gales are expected to spread through a
majority of the inner channels, with strongest winds remaining in
those hot spots in the northern panhandle. Freezing spray will
remain an issue in the inner channels and along the NE gulf coast
with these elevated winds, which could become heavy at times.

&&

.AVIATION.../Until 12Z Friday/...Largely VFR conditions expected
to continue across the majority of the panhandle through the TAF
period, as northerly outflow winds and diminishing precipitation
lasts throughout the day. The main areas continuing to see
precipitation are over the central panhandle between Kake and
Petersburg, with snow expected to continue into later this
morning, bringing MVFR conditions from cloud ceilings AoB 2500 ft
with VIS drops between 2 and 4 SM as snow decreases visibility at
times. This will soon push through by between 16 and 18Z when
conditions will improve to VFR. Lower CIGs to between 2000 and
3000 ft last over the southern panhandle this morning is also
expected to begin to clear up by 18Z, with Ketchikan seeing MVFR
conditions from these lowered ceilings seeing improvement by that
time as the cloud cover moves through. Skies will fully begin to
clear up by around midday across the panhandle as offshore flow
keeps the skies cleared and keeps the precipitation around a weak
low in the central Gulf offshore and away from the panhandle
today. With this continued offshore flow and outflow winds from
the northeast keeps winds in Skagway at the surface between 25 and
35 kts with gusts up to 45 kt. Juneau continues to see some cross
barrier flow from the NE winds at the ridgetop, however these
will be relatively weaker and remain between 25 and 30 kt between
1500 and 2000 ft. The majority of the TAF sites that are not
impacted by the outflow winds will see more light and variable
winds at the surface, with occasional gusts for Haines, Wrangell
and Klawock to 25 kt. Haines, much like Skagway, will see some
northerly outflow with gusts to 25 kt in the morning and sustained
NW winds reaching around 15 kt into tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
Inside Waters: Generally, the northeasterly outflow pattern
continues for the next several days, keeping up to around 40 kt
gale-force sustained winds for the northern 2/3 of the Inner
Channels with stronger winds the farther north that you go, with
Northern Lynn Canal experiencing the strongest winds. These winds
will also be accompanied by fully-developed seas up to around 15
ft, with generally the highest waves the more northward you go,
due to the long-fetch of these strong winds. Additionally, mainly
due to air temperatures being so cold, up to heavy freezing spray
is also likely for those areas.

Outside Waters: Generally, northeasterly outflow winds up to
around 35 kt gale-force are in store for the northeastern gulf
through tonight. For Friday, the pressure gradient relaxes &
winds decrease. Finally, those winds ramp-up, again, up to around
40-45 kt gales for the same area for the weekend as the pressure
gradient tightens & northerly outflow intensifies, once again.
Significant wave heights top out at around 11 ft today & top out
at around 22 ft for the weekend. Some freezing spray is possible
for the northeastern gulf.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Extreme Cold Warning until 9 AM AKST Friday for AKZ318.
     Strong Wind until noon AKST today for AKZ318.
     Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM AKST Friday for AKZ319.
     Strong Wind through late tonight for AKZ325.
MARINE...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ011-012-031.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ013.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ032.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ053.
     Gale Warning for PKZ011>013-651.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ021-022-031>034-053-641>644-652-
     661>664-671-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLC
LONG TERM...ZTK/SF
AVIATION...Contino
MARINE...JLC

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