862
FXAK67 PAJK 190640
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
940 PM AKST Tue Nov 18 2025

.UPDATE...Aviation & Winter storm update...

Pulled back slightly on snow ratios for this upcoming winter storm
for Haines Highway. Both temperatures aloft and magnitude of warm
air advection have been trending slightly warmer, due to a
slightly stronger jet aloft. While this may seem like a small
detail, small details matter a lot for this winter storm. As a
precipitation rate driven event reliant on snow melt cooling for
accumulating snow, increases in temperatures aloft could convert
precipitation over to mostly rain, or to a surface wetbulb not
supporting of much, if any, snow accumulation. Therefore, pulled
back snow ratios, as well as storm coverage to only be around the
Haines Customs area. Still expecting very dense, wet snow for this
event; however.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A strong system currently developing in the north
pacific will push northeast over the next 12 hours, driving high
wind and bringing heavy precipitation back to the region
Wednesday morning into Thursday. Touching on snow first, cool
northerly flow combined with heavy precipitation rates Wednesday
morning will help drive snowfall for the Chilkat Valley into the
border, with a forecasted 6 to 8 inches of wet dense snow by
Wednesday evening. Given the S-SW flow Klondike highway looks to
be sheltered from more intense snow impacts; an advisory is issued
for near 5 inches of wet and dense snow developing Wednesday into
Thursday morning. For sea level communities along the Icy Strait
corridor and south, all rain is forecasted through Thursday
morning, with 24 hour totals near 1 to 2 inches.

As this system moves into the southern gulf, winds will pick up
out of the southeast Wednesday morning with the highest winds
expected along the outer coast. A high wind warning has been
issued for Prince of Wales Island as well as Sitka for wind gusts
up to 60 mph, with the strongest winds expected later Wednesday
morning into the afternoon. Strong winds will continue to build
eastward into Clarence Strait with Ketchikan and Metlakatla seeing
wind gusts reaching up to 50 mph.

Elsewhere across the panhandle, gale force wind gusts will progress
northward along the inner channels before the surface front is
expected to stall around Icy Strait, with northerly winds
persisting along Lynn Canal through Wednesday night. This is due
to the orientation of the flow aloft as well as the location and
track of the parent low in the gulf. Overall this will turn out to
be a seasonable wet and windy middle of the week across southeast
Alaska. For what to expect towards the end of the week, see the
long term discussion.

.LONG TERM...A mixed bag of conditions is in store  for the long
range forecast. On one hand, the active weather pattern continues
through the remainder of the week and the first half of the
weekend as a negatively tilted trough sets up over the Bering Sea.
On the other hand, the potential for a break is looming beginning
on Sunday as the previous steering flow breaks down and is
replaced by a rex-block over the Interior.

The long range forecast starts off with a degree of uncertainty, as
operational guidance is struggling to resolve the timing and
position of a low which will move into the panhandle on Thursday.
While confidence is high in the low`s associated front arriving
Wednesday (see the short term for further details), two separate
solutions have emerged for the parent low`s trajectory on Thursday.
Solution one - the GFS/Canadian solution, would have the low
decouple from its parent front and veer off into the SE Gulf
before weakening and steering back north, ultimately arriving in
the panhandle as an open trough. Should this solution verify,
cooler temperatures are possible along the Klondike highway and
winds generally across the inner channels would be weaker than
forecast as the S pressure gradient is weakened. The second
possible solution, favored by the NAM and Euro models, features
the low remaining in sync with its advancing front and moving up
into the NE Gulf Coast by Thursday morning. This solution would
result in stronger S winds and the potential for a warmer
Klondike Highway. For the time being, am leaning towards the
NAM/Euro solution. This not only poses a challenge for wind speed
forecasts in the inner channels - but it also poses a challenge
for snowfall totals on the Highways. Especially along the Klondike
Highway, the potential does exist for significant accumulating
snow on Thursday (6-12 inches). However, confidence is low, as
depending on the previously mentioned system track, temperatures
may be too warm to allow for significant accumulations after warm
air advection moves in Thursday morning. Stay tuned for further
updates.

Confidence is higher in another front moving in on Thursday proper
after the previous low pressure. Anticipate more rain (and
potentially snow for the Klondike Highway), followed by showers
through Friday and into Saturday. One final short wave will likely
move through on Friday, bringing another round of heavier and more
organized precipitation.

Showers diminish through the latter half of Saturday, and Sunday and
Monday will likely be mostly dry as a rex block sets up over the
Gulf and the Interior, setting the stage for weak Northerly outflow.

.AVIATION...Through Wednesday evening...
Generally MVFR flight conditions across the southern panhandle
tonight will expand north through the morning hours as strong
front pushes into the panhandle. Periods of IFR VIS and CIGs are
possible under steadier rainfall. Rain could mix with or change
over to snow for PAHN and PAGY.

Winds generally 10kts or less across the northern panhandle and
PAYA for the period. Winds will increase across the central and
southern panhandle to 15-25kts gusting 25-35kts by Wednesday
morning as the front approaches, continuing the through the day
and into the evening hours.

Main aviation concern will be the increasing SE-ly LLWS along the
central and southern panhandle TAF sites, from Icy Strait
corridor on south, as winds 2kft aloft increase to 35-50kts by
late Wednesday morning. Strongest LLWS expected along the coast
of Baranof and Prince of Wales Island and south of a line from
Sitka over to Petersburg through the rest of Wednesday afternoon.

.MARINE...
Outside (Gulf/Coastal waters): A weakening low moved
inland over Yakutat Bay Tuesday afternoon with weakening southerly
flow in the northern gulf. Another system will move in from the
south Wednesday morning, with southerly strong- gales likely for
much of the coast. Southeasterly seas will build to near 23 to 28
ft with the associated fetch duration and wind, with storm force
gusts along the outer coast. Winds and seas to gradually diminish
Wednesday night before another gale force front pushes through the
gulf from the west.

Inside (Inner Channels):
Winds will gradually diminish across the northern inner channels
through Tuesday night as a weak low pushes into inland over the
far northern panhandle. The strongest of these winds are over Lynn
Canal that is keeping areas of strong breezes, up to 25 kts, as of
Tuesday afternoon. The southern inner channels will not see much
of a break This storm force low moves into the gulf early
Wednesday bringing gale force wind gusts to much of the central
and southern inner channels. The strongest of these winds are
likely to occur Wednesday afternoon as the associated front pushes
across the panhandle, though are expected to stall around Icy
Strait. A healthy fetch of strong- gale force winds in Queen
Charlotte Sound/Hecate Strait will drive stout southeasterly seas
of 12 to perhaps 18 ft into southern Clarence.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory from noon Wednesday to 6 AM AKST
     Thursday for AKZ318.
     Winter Storm Warning from 6 AM to 6 PM AKST Wednesday for AKZ319.
     Strong Wind from 6 AM AKST Wednesday through Wednesday morning
     for AKZ323-328.
     Strong Wind Wednesday afternoon for AKZ323.
     High Wind Warning from 9 AM to 3 PM AKST Wednesday for AKZ323.
     Strong Wind from 6 AM AKST Wednesday through Wednesday afternoon
     for AKZ327.
     High Wind Warning from 9 AM to 6 PM AKST Wednesday for AKZ328.
     Strong Wind from Wednesday morning through Wednesday afternoon
     for AKZ330-332.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ036-641>644-661>664-671-672.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-033-035-053-651-652.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NC
SHORT TERM...AP/STJ
LONG TERM...GFS
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...STJ

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