412
FXUS61 KAKQ 262328
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
628 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Much cooler and drier conditions arrive behind a cold front tonight
and persist through Saturday night. Cooler weather continues through
at least mid week. The next chance for rain arrives Sunday with rain
chances continuing through Tuesday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
As of 230 PM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Mild today with highs in the lower to locally mid 70s.

- Cooler and breezy tonight with lows in the mid to upper 30s.

Latest surface analysis depicted an occluded low over the Great
Lakes with a cold front approaching from the west. Temps as of 130
PM ranged from the upper 60s to lower 70s across the region with
partly cloudy skies for most. The cold front is progged to cross the
area from west to east this evening-early tonight as the low over
the upper Midwest tracks into Ontario/Quebec. Winds become WNW/W
with gusts up to 20-25 mph behind the front tonight. Winds gradually
taper off late tonight with lows in the 30s (mid 30s inland and
upper 30s to around 40F closer to the coast). Additionally, clouds
clear this evening into tonight with mostly clear skies expected
overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 PM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Much cooler and breezy on Thanksgiving Day and Friday.

- Very cold Friday night with teens likely in the Piedmont and
  lower to mid 20s elsewhere. Cool with less wind on Saturday.

Much cooler weather is expected on Thanksgiving Day and Friday as
deep upper troughing establishes itself over the eastern CONUS with
a ~1036 mb high pressure building into the Plains. The strong high
eventually becomes centered over the local area Friday night into
Saturday morning as the flow aloft flattens out. Highs Thu will only
be in the upper 40s to lower 50s with breezy W/WNW winds gusting to
20-25 mph. Thursday night will be colder with lows falling into the
mid 20s to lower 30s. With the chilly high still to our W/NW, there
will be a bit of a breeze, so radiational cooling conditions won`t
be quite ideal (but 850 mb temps still drop to -10C by Fri morning,
leading to the lows in the 20s for a decent portion of the FA).
Friday will be the coldest day of the period with continued breezy
WNW winds with gusts up to 25-30 mph (highest across the Eastern
Shore) and highs only in the lower-mid 40s. It will feel even colder
(given the wind) with wind chills never reaching above the 30s for
most (if not all) of the area. With the high over the area Friday
night, upper teens are likely in the Piedmont and perhaps rural
areas near the I-95 corridor, with lower 20s elsewhere (inland) as
winds become light and skies remain clear. Lows will be warmer along
the coast with lows around 30F. With high pressure overhead Sat,
winds will remain light through the day. However, it will still be
cold with highs in the low-mid 40s and lows Sat night in the mid to
upper 20s inland and mid 30s along the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 230 PM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Cool weather continues through mid week.

- Light rain is possible late Sunday into Monday with a more widespread
  wetting rain possible from Tuesday-Wednesday AM.

Clouds increase Saturday night into Sun as high pressure moves
offshore and an area of low pressure tracks well to our north. Light
rain is possible Sun into Mon as that system drags a cold front
through the area. Sun is the "warmest" day of the extended with
highs in the 50s to lower 60s across the SE half of the FA and mid-
upper 40s across the NW half. Confidence is increasing in a stronger
system impacting the area from late Mon night into early Wed.
However, given the lack of a strong cold air source, confidence is
low in any wintry precip. The 12z guidance has trended stronger with
the shortwave, which would result in a warmer solution for the local
area. As such, most model guidance has backed off of the potential
for wintry precip and now shows predominantly rain with the
potential for a brief period of freezing rain across the NW Piedmont
before a changeover to plain rain. The NBM probs for 0.01" of
freezing rain were ~10% across the NW Piedmont with nearly the same
probs for 1" of snow. Given that this is still day 6/7, have kept a
rain/snow mix across the far NW Piedmont, but confidence is low and
any wintry weather may very well end up being a brief period of
light freezing rain before a changeover to plain rain. Rain tapers
off by early Wed with cool conditions continuing through at least
mid-week. Highs in the mid 40s NW to mid 50s SE Mon, around 40F NW
to upper 50s SE Tue, and 40s (locally lower 50s across far SE VA/NE
NC) are expected.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 625 PM EST Wednesday...

VFR conditions are expected through the 00z/27 forecast period
at all sites. A strong cold front is currently crossing the
local area, which will move offshore later this evening. In the
wake of the front, winds become W and increase with brief gusts
up to ~20 knots later this evening into the first half of
tonight. Mid and high level clouds increase over western
portions of the area tomorrow morning into tomorrow afternoon
(but remaining VFR). Winds will average ~10 knots tomorrow
afternoon with occasional gusts to 20 knots.

Outlook: VFR conditions are expected behind the front through
Saturday as a much drier and cooler airmass moves in. Breezier
conditions are expected Friday with a WNW wind of 12-18 kt
gusting to 25-30 kt, highest at SBY. High pressure then builds
over the area Friday night into Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 305 PM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories are in effect tonight for all zones but
  the NC coastal waters.

- Winds drop off just below SCA criteria Thursday, but a
  secondary surge brings stronger winds, potentially with a few
  gale force gusts over the northern coastal waters Thursday
  night into Friday.


The latest WX analysis shows a cold front approaching from the
W, and this will cross the waters this evening from NW to SE,
shifting the winds to the WNW as drier, colder air to rushes
in. Despite the cool water temperatures, the change in airmass
will be great enough to result in an uptick in winds later this
evening. SCAs are now in effect for all but the NC coastal
waters for WNW winds of 15-25 kt with gusts to 25-30 kt,
generally highest on the Bay and coastal waters from Cape
Charles northward. The offshore wind direction will only allow
seas to build to 4-5 ft offshore, with waves in the Bay 3-4ft.

The pressure gradient will relax a bit during the day on
Thursday as the low pressure system moves further into interior
Canada. Winds will still be breezy, but come down to 10-15kt
with gusts to ~20 kt. This will be a brief dip as a secondary
surge of stronger CAA pushes in overnight Thursday into Friday.
Winds are expected to increase to 20-25kt w/ gusts to 30 kt after
sunset Thursday and staying elevated through Friday before
subsiding Friday night as high pressure nudges into the region.
Another round of more solid SCAs will be likely for most, if not
all, of the local waters during this timeframe. Can`t totally
rule out an occasional gust to gale force (34kt), mainly across
the northern coastal waters, though local wind probabilities
are keeping the likelihood of that at less than 20% so did not
go with any Gale Watches. Marine conditions will become benign
to start the weekend as high pressure builds in. Waves in the
Bay will drop back to 1 foot Sat aftn, as seas drop to ~ 2ft.
The next weather system moves in late Sunday into Monday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record highs for Wed 11/26


Record           Record
                High/Year
--------        --------
Eliz. City, NC   78/1946
Richmond         76/1999
Norfolk          76/1990
Salisbury        74/1999

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for ANZ630>632-
     634.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 AM EST
     Thursday for ANZ633.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Thursday for ANZ635>638.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM EST
     Thursday for ANZ650-652-654-656.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RMM
NEAR TERM...RMM
SHORT TERM...ERI/RMM
LONG TERM...ERI/RMM
AVIATION...AJB/RMM
MARINE...LKB/JKP
CLIMATE...