641
FXUS61 KAKQ 040526
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
126 AM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centered over the Northeast gradually moves
offshore later into the weekend. A warm-up is expected this
weekend, with dry conditions continuing into early next week. A
strong cold front likely approaches by the middle of next week,
bringing chances for rain and much cooler temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 755 PM EDT Friday...

Key Message:

- Mostly sunny and pleasant conditions today and Saturday.

- Patchy fog possible inland tonight, along with chilly
  temperatures areawide.

High pressure extends from the TN Valley to just offshore the
northern Mid-Atlantic coast this evening. The cu field has
mostly cleared out, but a few high clouds remain. Temps dropped
off quickly with latest obs showing the mid to upper 50s in most
spots. For tonight, the high will remain in control and ideal
radiational cooling conditions are expected. Overnight lows
will likely be below NBM guidance and in the mid-upper 40s, with
50s near the immediate coast. This is more in line with MOS
guidance. There are also some hints that fog could develop over
inland portions of the area late tonight. This seems like a
typical radiation fog setup, so am not expecting widespread
dense fog. The recent spell of drier conditions also lends some
uncertainty to this. Still, have put patchy fog in the forecast
with this update across interior NE NC, SE VA, and the Middle
Peninsula/Northern Neck.

The sfc high situates directly overhead Saturday as a large ridge
engulfs eastern and southeast CONUS aloft. Other than a weak sea
breeze turning the flow onshore in the afternoon, the flow will
remain quite weak and variable. Highs warm into the mid-upper 70s
under a sunny sky. Saturday night again looks on the chillier side,
with lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Additional patchy fog could
also be on the table.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 315 PM EDT Friday...

Key Message:

- Remaining dry and comfortable through the weekend into early
  next week with a slow warming trend.

An increase in temperatures, and a modest increase in dew points,
arrives Sunday into Monday as the airmass modifies with the high
gradually shifting offshore. A ridge axis bisecting the area aloft
should keep any precipitation chances suppressed through the
beginning of next week. Otherwise, not much to talk about with highs
in the upper 70s to around 80 F both days, along with a sunny or
mostly sunny sky. Lows in the 50s Sunday night and upper 50s to
lower 60s Monday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 315 PM EDT Friday...

Key Message:

- Continued warmer temperatures to start the week, with a chance for
  showers midweek as a strong cold front approaches the region.

An upper trough will begin to approach the region Tuesday. This will
eventually push an accompanying cold front through the area in the
midweek period, along with bringing our next shot of rain. At this
time, this doesn`t look to be a particularly wet FROPA as the
initial frontal push is quite progressive. Ensemble mean QPF is
currently on the order of a half inch or less. There is also some
disagreement on timing at this range with the deterministic ECMWF
faster than the GFS. The blended and probabilistic guidance favors
the highest rain chance later Wednesday into early Thursday. Cooler
temperatures and a return to dry conditions is expected Thursday
and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 125 AM EDT Saturday...

VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals through the TAF period.
Some patchy fog may be possible at PHF later this morning, but will
clear around sunrise if it does develop. Winds will generally be
light and variable, with ORF feeling the effects of the sea breeze
this afternoon in this light wind regime and winds becoming NE.

Outlook: Primarily VFR conditions are anticipated from later
Saturday through Tuesday as high pressure remains over the
region, with the only exception being early morning shallow
ground fog. A chance of showers returns later Tuesday and
Wednesday along and ahead of a cold front.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 315 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- High Rip Risk continues through the weekend.

- Seas continue to gradually lower through Saturday.

- Benign conditions expected Sunday into early next week.

Afternoon weather analysis shows a 1028 high pressure just of
the east coast. As the high has moved over head winds have
begun to lower and remain light and variable across all waters.
However, seas continue to remain elevated across the ocean with
waves heights still between 5 to 7 ft with occasional 8ft waves
across the NC waters. Small Craft Advisories continue to remain
in effect through Saturday as these seas will continue to be
elevated. While Across the bay waves remain between 1 to 2 ft.
The SCA for the mouth of the bay has been able to expire as
waves have lowered. Through the evening and into tonight winds
will continue to be light and variable as the high pressure
remains overhead. Seas will remain between 5 to 7 ft across the
ocean and 1 to 2 ft across the bay. Through the weekend the high
pressure will lock itself in place across the Mid-Atlantic
bringing light and variable winds. Wind speeds are expected to
be less than 10 kt. Seas will remain elevated through much of
Saturday morning before lowering by Saturday afternoon. The SCA
are expected to expire at 12z for the northern 3 ocean zones and
by 21z for the southern 2 ocean zones. Then by late saturday
seas will be between 1 to 2 ft across the bay and 3 to 4 ft
across the ocean. By Sunday benign marine conditions are
expected across all waters. These conditions are expected to
last roughly through Tuesday of next week. Looking ahead into
the middle of next week there is a decent signal of a strong
high pressure moving out of Canada. As the high moves into place
strong CAA will occur and this could potentially lead to
elevated marine conditions across the local waters.

Given the long period swell, persistent NE winds, and waves
remaining between 5 to 7 ft for much of tomorrow there is a high
risk of rips for all beaches tomorrow. While seas gradually subside
this weekend, they still remain elevated (> 4 ft). That, plus a long
period swell of 10-13 seconds continuing through the weekend, will
allow for an elevated (likely high) risk for rip currents to
continue through the weekend.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 315 PM EDT Friday...

With the winds coming out of the N and multiple strong Ebb tides
occuring the coastal flood threat has lowered and the advisories and
statements have been able to expire and or be canceled.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ656-
     658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJB/SW
NEAR TERM...AC/SW
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...AJB/SW
AVIATION...NB
MARINE...HET/NB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...