866
FXUS61 KAKQ 030646
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
246 AM EDT Wed Sep 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure begins to push offshore today with continued dry and
pleasant conditions. A cold front approaches from the west later
Thursday into Friday, bringing a chance for isolated showers and
thunderstorms. A stronger cold front crosses the area late Saturday
into Sunday. High pressure builds north of the area Sunday into
early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 245 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- High pressure remains in control of the weather pattern today
leading to dry conditions and pleasant temperatures.

Early this morning, high pressure is centered over coastal New
England, ridging south into the local area. In addition, an upper
low remains centered to our north with the trough axis over the Mid-
Atlantic. Mostly clear skies across the region with temperatures in
the low-mid 50s inland to the low-mid 60s closer to the immediate
coast. Some patchy fog develops as we head closer to sunrise, with
the best potential across the Piedmont and lower MD Eastern Shore.

High pressure will gradually shift offshore today, with winds
veering to the E-SE. Partly cloudy skies are expected with afternoon
cumulus. Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer today compared to
the past couple of days, with highs ranging from the upper 70s to
lower 80s (mid to upper 70s at the immediate coast). Not as cool
tonight with lows generally in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 245 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Isolated showers and storms (possibly a stronger storm or two) are
possible Thursday afternoon-evening, mainly across north and
northwest portions of the area.

- The warming trend continues on Friday with dry conditions expected.

Strong low pressure over the Great Lakes drags a cold front toward
the area on Thursday. Noticeably warmer and a bit more humid with
widespread mid 80s to upper 80s (lower 80s Eastern Shore). Scattered
thunderstorms are expected to develop to our W/NW Thursday
afternoon. The storms will push eastward toward the area during the
late afternoon/evening, but are expected to weaken as they do so
given that instability will be more limited farther east. A Marginal
Risk for severe storms does clip far NW portions of the area
Thursday, with the thought that a leftover stronger storm may
potentially clip theses areas, bringing the potential for a stronger
wind gust. Model soundings show little to no instability for areas
east of I-95. PoPs remain in the 20-30% range for far NW portions of
the area Thursday afternoon-evening, and am still not expecting
widespread rain with the areal average QPF of less than 0.10". The
front washes out over the area Thursday night as storms gradually
weaken. Winds will actually increase out of the SW on Friday with
dry (but more humid) weather expected. Forecast highs for Friday
continue to increase slightly with widespread readings in the upper
80s to around 90. Mild Friday night with many areas seeing low
temperatures hovering around 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 245 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Warmer temperatures are expected on Saturday with highs in the
upper 80s to the lower 90s.

- There is a chance for isolated to scattered thunderstorms on
Saturday.

- Cooler/drier weather returns by Sunday into early next week.

The low that is progged to be near the Great Lakes on
Wednesday/Thursday will track into eastern Canada by the weekend and
will drag a stronger cold front toward the area. That front
approaches and crosses the area later Saturday into Saturday night.
Saturday will be the warmest day of the period, with highs ranging
from the upper 80s to lower 90s. Scattered shower and storm chances
have trended up slightly for Saturday with PoPs now hovering around
30-40%. Cooler/drier weather returns Sunday with highs in the mid
70s to the lower 80s. Similar conditions are expected into early
next week. Looking farther out, there is some signal in the
ensembles for (potentially) more widespread rain later next week,
but this is beyond the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 115 AM EDT Wednesday...

A mainly clear sky and VFR is expected at most terminals through
sunrise. However, patchy, shallow fog has already started to
develop at the typical locations (PHF/ECG) early this morning.
Possible IFR VSBY restrictions at times early this morning, with
the best potential likely at PHF. In addition, patchy fog may
also try to form at SBY as we approach sunrise. Dry/VFR wx
continues today with SCT midday/aftn CU (lower coverage at the
coast). NE winds increasing to 5-8 kt out of the E this
afternoon. Mainly clear skies are expected tonight with light
winds.

Outlook: VFR/dry through early Thursday afternoon. There is a
chc for isolated showers/tstms Thu evening-Thu night (highest
PoPs just NW of RIC/SBY). Dry/VFR on Friday, with a chance of
isolated to scattered aftn/evening tstms at all terminals on
Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 245 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- A period of elevated southerly winds is likely late Thursday
afternoon  into the overnight across the Chesapeake Bay and northern
  coastal waters. Small Craft Advisory conditions are possible.

- A High Risk for rip currents continues across the southern beaches
with a Moderate Risk across the northern beaches   through tomorrow.

The latest weather analysis shows high pressure continuing over the
area with onshore NE flow at 5-10kt kt. Buoy obs show seas of 3-4ft.
The high pressure will remain over the area today allowing for
benign marine conditions. Winds will remain out of the NE through
late Wednesday before shifting to be out of the S/SE Thursday
morning. A cold front will move through the local waters Thursday
afternoon to overnight bringing potentially elevated winds across
the Ches. Bay and the northern coastal waters. Winds will likely
reach 15-20 kt over the bay and ~20 kt for the coastal waters. The
current local wind probs how a 50-65% chance for sustained 18kt
winds in the bay and ~95% chance over the northern coastal waters.
SCA will likely be needed Thursday afternoon to early Friday
morning, especially for the bay. A second cold front will cross the
local waters this weekend, which could bring additional SCA
conditions.

A High Risk for rip currents remains in effect for the southern
beaches and a Moderate Risk for the northern beaches. A Moderate
Risk is expected across all beaches on Thursday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 245 AM EDT Wednesday...

Tidal anomalies increase to 1-1.5 feet above normal by the Thursday
evening high tide due to increasing southerly winds. As the
southerly winds push and trap water in the upper bay, some nuisance
to minor flooding will be possible. The highest high tide looks to
be Thursday evening, however, Bishops Head may see minor flooding
during the evening high tides Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJB
NEAR TERM...AJB
SHORT TERM...AJB/ERI
LONG TERM...AJB/ERI
AVIATION...AJB
MARINE...AC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...