242
FXUS61 KALY 210606
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
106 AM EST Fri Nov 21 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weather system to our north brings low chances for precipitation
in the western Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley today. Otherwise, dry
conditions continue today. For tonight into tomorrow morning, a
weather system to our south continues to trend further southward for
low chances of precipitation across the Mid-Hudson Valley, southern
Taconics, and Litchfield Hills. Dry conditions are in store for
Saturday. Sunday is looking to be unsettled for the western
Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley region as a weather system arrives
from the north. A gradual warming trend for next week with chances
for precipitation returning Tuesday into Thanksgiving.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
For this morning...Cold temperatures start the day with temps
ranging in the teens and 20s. Clouds continue to increase this
morning with dry conditions in store. Very low chances (less than
15%) for a light snow shower in portions of the western Adirondacks
and Mohawk Valley between 5 AM and 8 AM, otherwise dry conditions
continue.

For this afternoon and tonight...An approaching weather system
from the northwest brings low chances (15-30%) to the western
Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley through the early evening hours.
Then dry conditions return as this system heads northward.
Elsewhere, dry conditions are in store for today with mostly
cloudy skies. For late tonight into the very early morning hours
tomorrow, low chances (15-25%) for light rain showers across
the Mid-Hudson Valley, southern Taconics, and Litchfield Hills
as a weather system moves through to our south. latest high
resolution model guidances and National Blend of Model data
(NBM) continues to trend further southward for accumulating
precipitation amounts. Very light amounts of a trace to 0.05
inches across the Mid-Hudson Valley, southern Taconics, and
Litchfield Hills could occur but latest probabilities are very
low as the trend of the weather system is to stay just to our
south and move through quickly. Dry conditions are in store by
daybreak for Saturday morning.

Dry conditions are in store for a pleasant, but chilly
Saturday. As a cold airmass continues overhead, highs range in
the low 30s to 40s. Low temperatures range in the teens and 20s.
Once the sun sets, temperatures fall quickly as skies are
mostly clear but should hover in the 20s as clouds increase for
Sunday morning.

For Sunday, low to medium chances (15-50%) for light snow showers in
the western Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley as a weather system
arrives from the northwest. This weather system stays just to our
north where the most favorable locations to see a light dusting to a
half of an inch of snowfall is in the western Adirondacks. For the
Mohawk Valley, temperatures could stay cold enough for snow showers
during the morning hours but as we head into Sunday afternoon with
temperatures warming above freezing, snow showers transition over to
light rain showers. At this forecast period for the Mohawk Valley,
chances for these showers are between 15-30% as the weather system
is favored by the latest forecast models to stay to our north. By
Sunday night, the weather system heads further northward and dry
conditions return for Sunday night into Monday morning. Elsewhere
across eastern New York and western New England, dry conditions
continue for Sunday with highs in the 30s and 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key message:

- Mild with rain Tuesday into Wednesday, then turning colder
  and breezy by Thanksgiving Day.

Discussion:

A northern stream short wave with limited moisture could bring
some light rain/snow showers Sun into Sun night, mainly for
higher terrain areas north/west of the Capital District.
Temperatures look slightly below normal. Dry weather with
seasonable temperatures expected Mon into Mon night, as surface
high pressure drifts east across the area.

The next chance of widespread precip arrives on Tue into Tue
night, as a progressive open wave upper trough approaches from
the south/west, with an associated warm front. There is a good
likelihood of at least some measurable precip, with NBM probs
showing 20-40% for > 0.50" so it does not look overly heavy.
Also temperatures should be warm enough for rain across most of
the area, although brief mixing with snow may occur in the
highest elevations of the S. Adirondacks. The parent cyclone
looks to track well north of our area on Wed, so our region may
get into a pseudo warm sector prior to the system`s cold front
passage. NBM guidance showing high temperatures in the mid to
upper 50s in most lower elevation areas. Additional showers are
expected along the cold front Wed P.M.

In wake of this system, colder air is expected to filter in Wed
night into Thu bringing gusty west winds, below normal temperatures
and lake effect snow in some favored areas.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Flying conditions are currently VFR across the region. IR satellite
imagery shows a large area of high clouds moving across the region
from the west.  In addition, some lower stratus clouds are moving
across the Southern Tier of New York.  Some additional lower clouds
can also be seen well upstream over southern Ontario and far western
New York.  These clouds will spreading towards the area for the late
night hours, so will allow for stratus clouds to build into the area
from the west between 07z-11z.  KPOU may be the first site impacted
by stratus based on satellite trends, with the other sites later in
the overnight hours.  Within the stratus, flying conditions will
either be high-end MVFR or low-end VFR, with cigs around 2500-3500
ft.  Winds will continue to be calm through the rest of the
overnight hours.

After sunrise, these lower stratus clouds will stay in place for a
portion of the day There may be some improvement back to low-end VFR
for KALB/KPOU, but the other sites will likely stay MVFR with the
stratocu staying in place. Southerly winds will be 5 to 10 kts on
Friday.  At this point, will mention a VCSH at KGFL, but none of the
other sites, as any brief showers will be fairly isolated and have
little to impact on visibility.

Behind a cold front, winds will switch to the west for Friday night
around 5 kts or so.  Some drier air will start working into the
area, so there may be some improvement in ceilings for all sites,
although KPSF may still continue to be MVFR even into Friday night.
Otherwise, it will be dry with no precip on Friday night.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...27