600
FXUS61 KALY 222310
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
610 PM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Turning chilly tonight as skies clear before a moisture starved
clipper tracks overhead tomorrow. Expecting isolated to
scattered valley rain and higher elevation snow showers before
lake effect and upslope snow showers develop overnight. We turn
dry for Monday into Monday night but trend milder Tuesday into
Wednesday as a system develops near the Great Lakes increasing
chances for rain showers.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages:

- There is a 30 to 70% chance for at least a half of snow in the
  southern Greens, southern/western Adirondacks and northern
  Catskills tomorrow into tomorrow night with a 40-50% chance
  for more than 2 inches in northern Herkimer County.

Discussion:

Our southern tracking disturbance from this morning has exited
well out to sea with northwest flow in the wake of the trough
axis supporting a decent November afternoon with seasonable
temperatures in the low to mid 40s under diurnally driven
stratocu. Skies trend clearer as we drop below the convective
temperatures this evening resulting in clearing skies as weak
high pressure builds overhead. With northwest flow ushering in a
much drier air mass through tonight and dew points remaining in
the 20s, favorable radiational cooling will support a chilly
night tonight. While another weak clipper will be approaching
from Ontario, moisture is lacking and guidance shows only upper
level moisture/cirrus clouds spilling overtop the weak
shortwave ridging into the western/southern Adirondacks and
Upper Hudson Valley through 09 UTC. Mainly clear skies look to
persist south of I-90. Latest NBM has trended low temperatures
tonight downwards slightly compared to its previous run but
still expecting lows to fall into the low to mid 20s.

Clouds gradually increase and lower tomorrow morning before
increased warm air/moisture advection ahead of the clipper
combined with some upslope enhancements supporting chance to
likely POPs in the southern/western Adirondacks and Mohawk
Valley by 15 - 18 UTC with chance POPs spreading into the Upper
Hudson Valley and western New England/Taconics into the
afternoon. Given chilly temperatures lingering to the morning
plus wet- bulbing cooling processes as precip saturates the dry
column, p-type is favored to be snow. Overall intensity should
be light but given upslope enhancements in the southern
Adirondacks and elevations at and above 1000ft in the
Taconics/southern VT, expecting a few tenths of an inch up to 2
inches (NBM shows less than 10% chance for snowfall through 7PM
Sunday to exceed 2"). Given the weak forcing and lack of
moisture, shower coverage looks to remain isolated to scattered
per the latest high res guidance with the most persistent snow
showers in the southern Greens and southern Adirondacks given
upsloping effects. Only expecting some light showers (mainly
rain) from midday into the early afternoon for valley areas
mainly from the Greater Capital District northward along the
leading edge of the strongest warm air/moisture advection. The
mid-Hudson Valley and NW CT looks to remain mainly dry. Between
the increasing clouds and wet-bulbing cooling effects from
rain/snow showers, cooler temperatures tomorrow with at least a
70% chance that highs fall under 40 degrees (30% chance in the
mid-Hudson Valley).

The clipper`s cold front and trough axis swing through by 21 -
00 UTC tomorrow. With increasing height falls ahead of the
trough resulting in a deepening shortwave, there is increasing
confidence in strong enough northwest flow and cold air
advection developing in its wake to elicit a lake effect
response for Sunday evening/night. There are even signs of a
brief multi-lake connection between the Georgian Bay and Lake
Ontario developing tomorrow evening. We therefore maintained
likely POPs in the Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley with chance
POPs remaining in the Taconics/southern Greens/western MA
00 - 06 UTC Monday and even expanded the chance POPs footprint
to include the Capital District and Upper Hudson Valley where
lake bands could reach. Marginal temperatures in the mid 30s
looks to support mainly rain or rain/snow mix in valley areas
but should a stronger lake band develop, a brief period of
mainly snow cannot be ruled out tomorrow evening. Even still,
accumulations look unlikely as probabilities for even just a
tenth of an inch of snow limited to 20% chance for just the
Upper Hudson Valley. On the other hand, there is a 30 to 60%
chance for at least an additional half inch of snow in the
aforementioned hill town and higher terrain areas. Winds veer
more to the northwest after Midnight, reducing the lake effect
response and snow showers decrease overnight.

High pressure continues to build north and eastward on Monday
with the lowering subsidence inversion putting an end to the
lake effect snow showers. However, continued northwest flow
maintains enough of a moisture fetch off Lake Ontario that a
stubborn stratocu deck looks to linger into Monday morning.
Shortwave ridging builds in enough by Monday afternoon to scour
out trapped mid-level moisture and skies trend sunnier. The
pressure gradient tightens enough ahead of the incoming high
that mixing deepens as skies clear and winds become a bit breezy
Monday afternoon. Otherwise, Monday trends milder with daytime
highs rebounding into the low to mid 40s (mid to upper 30s in
the hill towns/higher terrain) with even near 50 in the mid-
Hudson Valley. We remain dry into Monday night as high pressure
builds overhead.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Messages:

- Moderate to high confidence for a warming trend into Wednesday
  with at least a 70 to 90% chance for high temperatures
  Wednesday to exceed 50 degrees through most of eastern NY and
  western New England. Medium to high confidence for a few
  periods of mainly rain showers Tuesday into Wednesday.

- Increasing confidence for a lake effect snow event Thursday
  afternoon through Friday night with medium confidence for the
  western Mohawk Valley and southern/western Adirondacks to
  experience the most impacts. Uncertainty remains on exact
  placement of lake effect bands, duration and intensity.

Discussion:

While there remain a few disturbances to monitor heading in
Thanksgiving week and the busiest travel days of the year,
confidence is increasing that mild enough temperatures Tuesday into
especially Wednesday will support mainly rain as the precipitation
type. Latest ensemble cluster guidance shows moderate confidence in
a weak shortwave tracking within broad southwest flow Tuesday into
Tuesday night supporting a period of showers with confidence
increasing that incoming showers hold off until Tuesday afternoon.
After this initial period of showers, ensemble cluster again are in
moderate agreement in a more potent trough developing over the Great
Lakes into Ontario and turning into a closed low Wednesday into
Wednesday night. This looks to result in enhanced southwest
flow into the Northeast that likely leads to a period of above
normal temperatures. In fact, there is a 70 to 90% chance for
temperatures to exceed 50 degrees through most of eastern NY and
western New England on Wednesday. Chances for showers increase
Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night as moisture and forcing
ahead of the closed low strengthens but again there is moderate
to high confidence that the warm air mass will support plain
rain. Rain amounts are expected to be rather light with only a
20% chance that 24 hour rain amounts from 7AM Wed to 7AM Thurs
exceed 0.50".

As the system`s cold front pushes through Wednesday night into
early Thursday (Thanksgiving), temperatures quickly trend colder
as strong westerly flow ushers in a much colder air mass into
the Northeast. In addition, winds look to become gusty on
Thursday with a 50 to 70% chance that 24 hour wind gust maximum
values exceed 30mph between 1AM Thurs and 1AM Fri. As the
parent closed low tracks into the Northeast and strong cold air
advection continues over the still warm Lake Erie and Ontario
waters Thursday afternoon through Friday night, there is
growing confidence for a lake effect snow event to develop. With
temperatures trending colder both days (but remaining
seasonable for late November) and given initial model guidance
prediction on wind direction and potential for mult-lake
connection enhancements, confidence is increasing that the
western Mohawk Valley and the southern/western Adirondacks will
experience the most impacts but again, snow amounts and impacts
will be dependent on lake band placement, duration, and
intensity. Latest probabilistic guidance shows a 30 to 70%
chance for at least 3 inches of snow in this region during the
48 hour period from 7PM Wed to 7PM Fri with even a 30 to 50%
chance for at least 6 inches in the western Adirondacks. In
addition, westerly flow looks to also support upslope snow in
the southern Greens during this period with a 10 to 15% chance
for at least 2 inches of snow. Those planning to travel in
these areas during the upcoming Thanksgiving holiday into the
early part of the weekend should keep a close eye on the
forecast for trends and snow forecast information.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 00z Monday...Flying conditions are currently VFR at all
terminals, which should continue through at least late tomorrow
morning. Mainly clear skies this evening will give way to
increasing high clouds overnight, becoming BKN by sunrise. Mid
and high clouds continue to increase through the morning, with
cigs becoming BKN to OVC between 4000-6000 ft by tomorrow
afternoon. A weak clipper system will also bring scattered rain
showers to the region tomorrow, so have included VCSH and
prob30 groups tomorrow afternoon at all terminals. Some wet snow
could mix in at GFL/PSF, so this was also mentioned in these
respective prob30 groups. Within any rain/snow showers, MVFR
vsbys and MVFR to VFR cigs are possible. Chances for rain/snow
showers continue through the end of the TAF period. Winds will
become light and variable within the first couple hours of the
TAF period, continuing through at least 12z tomorrow. Tomorrow
morning, winds increase to 5-10 kt from the S/SE (locally S/SW
at POU/PSF), continuing through the end of the TAF period.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA.
Tuesday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely RA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA.
Thanksgiving Day: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...31
SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM...31
AVIATION...35