134
FXUS61 KALY 180503
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1203 AM EST Tue Nov 18 2025

.UPDATE...
As of 10 PM EST, other than a few breaks across the upper Hudson
Valley, clouds are persisting. Some light snow showers/flurries
are also occurring across portions of Schoharie County and
extending east/southeast into the eastern Catskills, central
Taconics and southern Berkshire County. Shortwave tracking
across the region has allowed for a slight uptick in coverage of
the snow showers. This should continue through midnight before
gradually decreasing in coverage. Areas across Schoharie County
could receive a coating to up to a half inch of snowfall in
some locations where snow showers persist longest.

With clouds persisting, temps have remained a bit higher than
originally forecast. Still expect more clearing to develop after
midnight, allowing temps to drop off more rapidly through
daybreak.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Lake effect and upslope snow showers will gradually taper off
this evening into tonight. High pressure builds east the region
on Tuesday, and remains in place through Thursday. This will
provide a stretch of dry and tranquil weather. The next chance
of widespread precipitation arrives on Friday associated with a
frontal system. Mainly rain is expected, with some snow possibly
mixing in across some mountain areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message:

- Lake effect/upslope snow showers gradually end tonight.

Discussion:

Cyclonic NW flow regime continues this evening into the
overnight hours. Lake effect/upslope snow showers have been
light this afternoon with any additional accumulations limited
to around 1" or less in parts of the W. Adirondacks, Mohawk
Valley and N. Catskills. Since the bulk of the accumulating snow
has ended with only light snowfall rates expected from now
through this evening, will cancel the Winter Storm Warning and
Winter Weather Advisory with this forecast issuance. Will
mention isolated to scattered snow showers with the greatest
coverage over the W. Adirondacks, W. Mohawk Valley into the N.
Catskills. NW winds will continue to gust 25-40 mph at times
through this evening, with decent pressure gradient still in
place. It will remain chilly, with lows tonight ranging from
around 20-30F and a persistent NW breeze making it feel even
colder.

Tue looks dry as surface high pressure nudges east into our
area, with increasing subsidence. There will likely still be
mostly cloudy skies over many higher terrain areas through much
of the day, with partly sunny skies expected in the N-S valleys.
It will still be breezy, but not as windy as Mon with peak
gusts mainly in the 20-30 mph range. Temperatures will remain
below normal with highs in the upper 20s to mid 30s in the
mountains and upper 30s to lower 40s in the valleys. High
pressure moves across N. NY Tue night bringing mostly clear and
cold conditions. A disturbance tracking east across the mid
Atlantic region may bring some clouds and a very low chance of a
few snow showers to far southern areas, but the majority of
guidance keeps precip to our south with this system.

A stronger area of high pressure builds in Wed into Wed night,
providing tranquil but cool conditions. Temperatures will remain
below normal, although winds will be much weaker than recent
days.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure gradually drifts east towards the New England
coast on Thu, providing continued dry conditions with slightly
milder temperatures (though still below normal). The next chance
of widespread precip arrives late Thu night into Fri,
associated with a progressive northern stream trough. The parent
cyclone and upper low are expected to track well north into
Canada, so this will be more of a milder system, with our area
getting into a pseudo warm sector on Fri. High temperatures may
reach or slightly exceed normal for the first time in a while
(> 50F in the Hudson Valley south of ALB). While chances for
measurable precip are high, overall amounts do not look heavy
with just 30-40% probs for > 0.50" rainfall. Most of the precip
should be rain, but could start as a period of snow in parts of
the Adirondacks and S. Greens especially if precip arrives
slightly earlier (Thu night). A few additional showers may occur
with the system`s cold front passage Fri night.

Cooler and mainly drier weather is expected for the upcoming
weekend into next Mon, although a fairly active (but moisture
starved) northern stream trough looks to be in place during this
time. Multiple short wave passages favors slight to low chance
PoPs mainly over higher terrain areas and breezy conditions.
Temperatures look to be near to slightly below normal through
early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Our region is still under the influence of cyclonic flow aloft,
resulting in widespread stratocu clouds thanks to the moist flow
off the eastern Great Lakes. BKN-OVC cigs around 3500-5000 ft
for the valley TAF sites, resulting in VFR flying conditions.
Meanwhile, ceilings are a little lower over the Berkshires,
resulting in MVFR conditions thanks to ceilings around 2500-3000
ft there. Through the rest of the overnight hours, flying
conditions will continue to be MVFR for KPSF, with VFR for the
other sites. Will mention a TEMPO for MVFR at KALB as some brief
ceilings around 3000 ft cannot be ruled out due to upstream
observations across the Mohawk Valley, but it should be VFR most
of the time. No precip is expected, as all snow showers have
been limited to areas further west due to the shallow moisture
flow in place. Westerly winds will continue to be gusty at KPSF
overnight, with some gusts up to 20 kts, but lighter winds are
expected for the other sites.

During the day on Tuesday, flying conditions will generally be
VFR. Any MVFR cigs at KPSF will improve by the mid to late
morning hours, with just sct cigs around 3-5 kft for all sites.
West to northwest winds will be around 10 kts with some higher
gusts at times, especially for KPSF and KALB. These winds will
diminish on Tuesday evening with the loss of daytime heating and
will become very light or calm. Skies should become mostly
clear for Tuesday evening into the first part of Tuesday night.

Outlook...

Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA.
Friday: High Operational Impact. Likely RA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...24
SYNOPSIS...07
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...27