854
FXUS61 KALY 251928
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
228 PM EST Tue Nov 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will bring some rain to eastern New York
and western New England tonight.  Some isolated to scattered showers
will persist on Wednesday associated with a low pressure system and
a cold front.  A much colder air mass will build in for Thanksgiving
with blustery and cold conditions with lake effect snow showers
continuing through Friday, as some heavier snow totals may occur
over the western Adirondacks.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 228 PM EST...Clouds will continue to thicken and lower
this afternoon with light rainfall beginning to spread across
the region from southwest to northeast in the late afternoon
into the early evening. The low to mid level warm advection will
increase across the region for periods of light rainfall ahead
of the warm front and a dampening out short-wave south of the
region. The rainfall may be briefly moderate in intensity. A
notable low-level jet of 35-45 KT at 850 hPa will focus the
moisture ahead of the boundary. It will be breezy with
south/southwest 10-20 mph. Temps will be mild and due to wet
bulb cooling with lows 40-45F in the valleys and mid and upper
30s over the higher terrain. Some patchy fog may occur in spots.
Total rainfall will be generally two tenths to a half an inch
across the forecast area.

Tomorrow...the forecast area breaks into a warm sector, as the
warm front moves towards the St Lawrence River Valley. It will
be breezy with spotty showers ahead of a cold front and a wave
of low pressure moving towards southeast Ontario. A few gusty
showers or even an isolated rumble of thunder may occur ahead of
the cold front across the southwest Adirondacks and the western
Mohawk Valley. Some weak instability is ahead of the front.
Isolated showers may product wind gusts of 30-45 mph. High will
run about 10-15 degrees above normal with mid 50s to lower 60s
in the lower elevations and upper 40s to mid 50s over the higher
terrain.

The front moves across the region in the early evening with the
rain showers transitioning to snow showers over the western Dacks.
A quick coating to half inch of wet snow may occur there. Brisk
conditions occur with the frontal passage with west winds
increasing to 10-20 mph with some gusts 25-35 mph. Strong cold
advection will sweep across the region in the wake of the front
with lows falling back in the lower to mid 30s with some 20s
over the higher terrain.

Thanksgiving...looks cold and blustery with west/southwest winds
12-25 mph with some gust 30-40 mph. A closed/compact H500 low
will set-up over southeast Ontario and southwest Quebec with a
secondary cold front moving across the region on the holiday.
Scattered snow showers and flurries will initially impact the
southwest Adirondacks, w-central Mohawk Valley and Lake George
and southern VT with a more pronounced long axis lake band
forming off Lake Ontario during the pm. Some the heavier snow
bands may reach extreme northern Herkimer county by nightfall.
Total accums may reach 1-2" north and west of Old Forge before
the real lake effect cranks up. Highs will be in the upper
20s/lower 30s to lower 40s and might reach their peak before
noon. The Winter Storm Watch begins at 4 pm for
Herkimer/Hamilton Counties.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key Messages:

 - Winter Storm Watch Thu night until early Sat morning for
   Herkimer and Hamilton Counties with a 50% confidence of
   reaching >7" of snowfall especially Thu night and Friday
   along and north of Route 28.

 - Medium confidence in advisory-level snowfall accumulations (30
   to 60% of >4" snow over 72 hours) resulting from upslope and
   lake effect snowbands for the western Mohawk Valley
   including southern Herkimer County.

 - Medium confidence in advisory-level wind gusts (30-70% >40
   mph) across the Mohawk Valley, eastern Catskills, Capital
   Region, north/central Taconics and the higher terrain of
   western New England on Friday.

Thanksgiving night through Friday...lake effect snow bands will
impact portions of eastern NY. The lake band off Lake Ontario
initially has a southwest to west low-level trajectory and then
pivots or transitions to a west to northwest trajectory by
Friday morning. This transitory lakeband could impact the
morning drivers out for the after Thanksgiving holiday sales. We
maintained the Winter Storm Watch for Herkimer and Hamilton
Counties, though warning level snowfall amounts are not expected
at this time in southern Herkimer County yet. The Watch
supports 7" or more of snow at a point in the western
Adirondacks Thu late through Fri. The quick movement of the band
may limit higher totals. However, a multi-lake connection is
possible with a well aligned band due to moderate-extreme lake-
induced instability. Advisories may be needed for portions of
the Mohawk Valley (southern Herkimer Co. and maybe
Fulton/Montgomery Counties). Right now, 6-12" is possible into
Saturday across northern Herkimer and western Hamilton Counties
and 2-6" over the western Mohawk Valley. Light snow amounts of a
coating to less than an inch are possible from the Capital
Region north and east and also over th eastern Catskills. The
southern Greens may get upslope snow tallies of a few inches. It
will be blustery and cold. Lows in the 20s to around 30F and
highs on Friday will be close to 10 degrees below normal with
mid and upper 30s in the lower elevations and 20s over the
higher terrain. The 90th percentile of the NBM was used for
winds and gusts Thu night thru Friday and gusts 40 mph or
greater are possible for the higher terrain of western New
England, the eastern Catskills, Taconics, and the Greater
Capital Region based on the LREFs.

The winds gradually subside Fri night and the lake effect
becomes narrow multi-bands in northwest flow heading into
Saturday morning. High pressure builds in with a dry and very
cold day for the holiday weekend. Lows Fri night into the teens
over the higher terrain and 20s over the rest of the forecast
area. High pressure will bring sunny/mostly sunny skies and cold
conditions Sat pm due to subsidence with highs in the lower to
mid 30s in the valleys and 20s to lower 30s over the higher
terrain.

High pressure moves east of the New England Sat night into
Sun. Clouds increase ahead of the next system approaching from
the west-central Great Lakes Region. Temps modify to seasonable
readings on Sunday, so expect some scattered rain/snow showers
to move in during the day. The snow showers will be mainly above
1500 ft in the pm. The cold front moves across the region Sun
night into Mon with another surge of cold air with temps
falling back below normal Mon-Tue. Some lake effect snow showers
and flurries may briefly occur with light accums over the
western Dacks and western Mohawk Valley. High pressure may
briefly build in Mon night into Tue with dry but cold
conditions. Temps will finish the week below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 18Z/Wed...VFR conditions will be place this afternoon at all
sites with BKN-OVC high clouds in place. A low pressure system will
then bring a period of rain to the TAF sites beginning between
21z/Tue and 00z/Wed and continuing through 06-08z/Wed before
transitioning to scattered showers and/or drizzle until 12z/Wed.
Cigs/vsbys will quickly lower to IFR/MVFR thresholds shortly after
the onset of rainfall and remain in this range through the rest of
the overnight. Some improvement to MVFR is expected by late morning
all TAF sites except KPSF where low clouds and drizzle may persist
through this TAF period. Wind will generally be southerly at 5-15 kt
at all sites today, then less than 10 kt tonight. South to southwest
winds from 5 to 10 kts are expected on Wednesday. A period of LLWS
is possible at all sites, mainly between 00-06z/Wed, as winds at
2000 feet increase to 35-45 kt.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA.
Thanksgiving Day: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 34 kts. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 31 kts. Chance of SHSN.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 37 kts. Chance of SHSN.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 31 kts. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHSN.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Winter Storm Watch from Thursday afternoon through Saturday
     morning for NYZ032-033-038.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...15
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...09